2014 Grand National: 5th April
The 2014 Grand National Day ha arrived and we’re not waivering from our original analysis and going with Jonjo’s BURTON POINT as our main EW bet.
We have broke down the chance of 4 others in that review and have come up with our overall two EW value bets which we believe are the ones to be on for those having a few EW punts?
The other race we are conidering today is The Liverpool Hurdle…
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The Liverpool Hurdle has a new title sponsor this season, this Grade 1 race over three miles was moved to the Saturday for the first time last season since it was transferred from Ascot to Aintree in 2004.
The Ladbrokes World Hurdle, looks a key race with a very strong record of horses that finished in the first four in the stayers’ championship at Cheltenham proving successful here
Of the ten winners to date since it was run at this meeting, only the five-time Aintree scorer, Monet’s Garden, did not contest the World Hurdle and nine finished in the first four (132411111).
- This season’s 1-2-3-4 were More Of That, Annie Power, At Fishers Cross and Zarkandar
- Previous Crabbie’s Grand National Meeting experience has been a significant factor as all ten winners had won or finished second at this meeting before (and eight had won at the course before)
- The second-best guide has been the galliardhomes.com Cleeve Hurdle in which Knockara Beau edged out At Fishers Cross. Half of the ten Liverpool Hurdle winners contested that Grade 2 race, four of which finished first or second.
- All ten winners have started in the first three in the betting, nine of which started favourite or second-favourite, and all ten winners had also won a Grade 1 or Grade 2 race and been successful over a minimum of 2m6f.
- Of the nine five-year-olds to have taken their chance only one has finished in the frame
- he has been the only one to hit the frame.
- 8 of the last 9 winners ran in the World Hurdle with six winning at Cheltenham and the other 3 finishing in the first 4
- 8 of the 9 Liverpool Hurdle winners had previously won at the meeting
- Since moving to Aintree all 9 race winners have been in the first 3 in the betting holding market positions of 1 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 1.
- The favourite has finished 1 U 2 2 3 1 1 1 1 over the past 9 years
- 7 of the 9 renewals have been won by six and seven year olds – Big Bucks is the only horse older than 7 to have won since 2004
Sadly a small field and it looks like a duel between At Fishers Cross and Melodic Rendezvous. The former was fourth in the World Hurdle and Rebecca Curtis’ charge has the best form on offer. In theory it should be a deserved first victory of the season if jumping to his best.
However, with his jumping in question, we’ll take him on with the latter who is much better value MELODIC RENDEZVOUS, who has the potential to be a very smart stayer if his stamina does hold out and ignore his ‘too bad to be true’ Champion Hurdle run and a best priced EW (2 places only) 8/1 with Skybet
We have already posted our stats and selections so how are you going to go?
Will Teaforthree stay the trip, plus he hasn’t won for over 2 years?
Does the softening of the fences favour the better horses?
Will this increase the overall pace of the race and mean the top weights will struggle?
Has Long Run too much weight?
Is Big Shu ahead of the handicapper as he’s predominantly ran in hunter chases and cross country races?
Hopefully you’ll find a winner and have a good old few sherbets and the pub tonight?
Our Picks……[table “19” not found /]
Whatever you select, Good Luck from the ABW team and let’s look ahead to another successful flat season!!!!
Here’s our 12 to follow and we’ll keep adding to that with our horses noted in running.
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