Burnley v West Brom: Premier League February 2015
It’s Burnley v West Brom from Turf Moor this lunchtime where Burnley manager Sean Dyche could name the same starting line-up for the 10th successive Premier League match.
For the Baggies, Darren Fletcher is expected to make his debut for West Brom after signing from Manchester United on Monday, whilst Saido Berahino may feature despite facing a club disciplinary for comments he made in an unauthorised interview.
A run of three consecutive defeats has seen Burnley exit the FA Cup and drop to 17th place in the Premier League. While they are only three points ahead of rock bottom, Leicester, The Clarets are only the same amount behind, Crystal Palace, in 13th.
Therefore a win for Sean Dyche’s side would be a huge boost this weekend, especially considering that they play one of their relegation rivals. Burnley have only won three times at Turf Moor this season though, however all of them did come in their last seven outings in front of their own fans.
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Things were looking better for West Brom following the appointment of Tony Pulis as manager. A 7-0 trouncing of Gateshead in the FA Cup was followed by a win over Hull in the league. They then earned a hard fought draw at Goodison Park, before knocking Birmingham out of the cup, but their progress was checked last weekend by a 3-0 home defeat to Spurs.
- West Brom have only won one of the last 13 league meetings at Turf Moor (W1, D6, L6). That was a 2-0 victory in February 2002 in League One.
- Burnley will host West Brom in the top flight for the first time since December 1970.
- Burnley have won just one of the last seven league matches (D2, L4)
- Three of their four league victories this season have come at Turf Moor.
- They have conceded 12 headed goals this season, the most in the Premier League prior to this weekend.
- Sean Dyche has named the same starting line-up for the last nine league matches. Only Birmingham City have been unchanged for longer in the Premier League: 12 matches in 2009-10.
- West Brom are winless in their last six away fixtures. They have one just one of their last seven league matches, home and away.
- They are the division’s second lowest scorers in away games, with 11 goals, but have the third best defensive record.
- Albion’s tally of 22 points is the same as this stage last season, when they finished 17th.
- West Brom have picked up four points in three league matches with Tony Pulis in charge, having taken one from the previous four.
This match could be described as one for the purists but I have a sneaky suspicion that it could surprise a few. Burnley’s last seven scorelines read; 2-2, 3-3, 1-1, 2-1, 4-2, 2-3 and 2-0.
A dozen of those 28 goals were scored by Burnley players and as witnessed at The Hawthorns last Saturday, Tony Pulis hasn’t ironed out his team’s defensive frailties yet.
West Brom themselves have seen three of their last five reward over 2.5 goal backers – five out of nine in the bigger picture – and when they last took on this opposition back in September, they netted four times.
A high-scoring draw is the bet of choice for a correct score and 2-2 at 19.5 fits the bill, it’s massive value, and that the market is reacting to the names of the clubs involved, rather than the statistics on offer.
Over 4.5 goals can currently be backed at 11.5 and we would expect that to trade much shorter in running. A frantic pace early on is all but guaranteed and if we can get a goal or two in the opening stages, the odds of five goals or more will plummet.
Back a 2-2 Correct Score @ 19.5
Back Over 4.5 @ 11.5 and trade out if early goals
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