Cheltenham Day 2 – a slight profit yesterday!
Wednesday 12th March 2014….and it’s Cheltenham Day 2….after a slight (20{70aeb3532cb26dbe277d25ea128ebb74de84b9bd22e1583b0eb1b73768e061f6}) profit from our EW bets (21 @ EW doubles) yesterday with…. 1 winner and 3 places at 12/1, 7/2 & 10/3….
That’s a relief, as we always say we aren’t serious festival bettors but appreciate that you need an input view. Today we publish DAY 2 statistics from ‘What Really Makes Money’ to maybe influence your selections, here they are again, together with the best offers from the bookmakers and our selections……
Don’t Miss…a late offer From Betfair……..<<<CASH BACK IF THE FAVOURITE WINS>>>>
Day 2….
1.30 p.m. – Neptune Novice’s Hurdle
- The last ten winners were aged either 5 or 6 – exclude Sea Lord, Royal Boy, Quickpick Vic, Ballyalton, Killala Quay.
- Nine of the last ten winners finished first or second last time out – exclude Ballyalton, Cocktails at Dawn, Company Coming, Creepy, Cup Final, Killala Quay, Midnight Thunder.
- All of the last ten winners came from the first six in the betting market – include Currently Faugheen, Red Sherlock, Briar Hill, Royal Boy, Rathvinden, Vautour.
- A 7/1 horse has won in three of the last six runnings – include Royal Boy – is 13/2 currently but this is liable to change.
Our selection…..
This should be Faugheen’s but at poor odds so we will take some EW about ROYAL BOY, he’s one of three Nicky Henderson charges and has done better since the switch back to hurdles and at a best priced 8/1 with BetFred
2.05 p.m. – The RSA Steeple Chase
- Only three favourites have won in the last 10 years – Ballycasey is the current favourite.
- All of the last ten winners were first or second last time out – includes Annacotty, Ballycasey, Black Thunder, Corrin Wood, Don Cossack, Double Ross, Foxrock, Holywell, Le Bec, Many Clouds, Morning Assembly, O’Faolains Boy, Sam Winner, Smad Place.
- All of the last ten winners ran at least three times over fences – exclude Ballycasey, Gevrey Chambertain.
Our selection…..
SMAD PLACE has been in great form over fences and the firming up of the ground will pose no problem. A best priced 8/1 with BetFred
- No favourite has won in the last 10 runnings – there are a number of current favourites so check the market on the day.
- Eight of the last ten winners have been priced at 10/1 or higher – alas, this includes the whole market presently.
- Eight of the last ten winners were aged 7 or younger – exclude Meister Eckhart, Yesyoucan, Oscar’s Well, Getmeoutofhere, Dunguib.
- Ten different trainers have trained the winner in the last 10 years – exclude Alan King’s Runners Medinas, Vendor, Meister Eckhart.
Our selection…..
CLONDAW KAEMPFER (NAP) should go well for ‘Son Of Ginge’ McCain at a decent EW price. He shaped well last time and can prove he is well handicapped by coming out on top here after being well supported in both starts this season. He looks a good pick up ride for Richard Johnson and at a best priced 12/1 with PaddyPower.
3.20 p.m. – The Queen Mother Champion Chase
- Nine of the last ten winners were 10 years old or younger – exclude Sizing Europe and Wishful Thinking.
- Nine of the last 10 winners had won a Grade One race – exclude Wishful Thinking, Baily Green, Kid Cassidy, Module.
Our selection…..
CAPTAIN CONAN, was a top novice last season and Nicky Henderson with winners already should have him pumped and ready after his seasonal reappearance in December but at a shortish priced 5/1 with PaddyPower.
4.00 p.m. – The Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Steeple Chase
- Only two favourites have won the last nine runnings – Balthazar King and Big Shu are the current favourites.
- Seven of the last nine winners were priced at 13/2 or lower – the above two horses are currently the only horses under 13/2. Do note that, as I write, there are two horses at 7/1 whose prices may shorten.
- Seven of the last nine winners were placed previously at Cheltenham – exclude Love Rory, Star Neuville, Bishopsfurze, Imperial Circus, Quel Esprit, Sacree Tiepy, Quiscover Fontaine.
Our selection…..
STAR NEUVILLE looks very well treated and can be Eric Bolger’s fifth winner in 10 years here for Declan Mullins and good EW value at a best priced 8/1 with BetFred
4.40 p.m. – The Fred Winter Hurdle
- Only two favourites have won the last nine runnings – Dawalan is the current favourite.
- The last two winners were priced at 25/1 and 40/1.
Our selection…..
Dawalan has looked good on his two most recent starts but the race is a favourites graveyard so we opt for the consistent CLARCAM who could possibly be the pick here. It’s a race traditionally won by big priced horses and Bryan Cooper could do the business for Gordon Elliot at a decent EW priced 16/1 with BetFred
5.15 p.m. – The Champion Bumper
- No 4-year-old has ever won – exclude Royal Vacation, Modus, Coyaba.
- All of the last ten winners won last time out – include Assam Black, Black Hercules, Definitely Red, El Namoose, Killultagh Vic, Modus, Shaneshill, Silver Concorde, Vigil.
- Only one favourite has won in the last ten runnings – Black Hercules is the current favourite but that might change.
- Willie Mullins has trained the last two winners – he runs Killultagh Vic, Black Hercules and Westhorpe.
- The odds of the last four winners were 40/1, 14/1, 16/1 and 25/1.
Our selection…..
SILVER CONCORDE will appreciate the drying ground in a race which looks like it will go to one of the Irish raiders. Dermot Weld’s charge is a best priced 14/1 with PaddyPower.
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All the best with YOUR betting today….
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Gold Cup Betting…..
[table “12” not found /]Check the long term stats and profits and a full review of this and last seasons selections can be found by following the link below:
Always Back Winners Selection Results
Selections from our TurfMeister in Ireland……MORNING ASSEMBLY (2.05) & WAHEEB (2.40)
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