Cheltenham Day 1 2017 – Ultima Chase
14:50 The Ultima Business Solutions Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (5yo+, 3m 110y)
The Ultima Handicap Chase open to 5 year olds that often pre-empts a tilt at the Aintree Grand National next month. It’s the first handicap of the meeting and previous winners have a good record in this.
This hasn’t been a favourites paradise over the years with just two winning since 1977, though outsiders are a bit of a rarity with 12 winners from the last 16 been in the first four in the forecast.
Let’s check the stats and trends for this one….
- Last 5 winners finished Top 5 in their last race and 16/19 finished top 6 LTO
- 12 from 16 in top 4 betting forecast
- Aged 7-9
- Must have run at least 5 times over fence
- 12 or fewer handicap chase runs
- 6 or fewer runs at track
- 3 or fewer chase runs at track
- Had a run in the previous 16-45 day period
- last 6 winners carried 11-07 or less from a rating below 148
- Favours 142 – 149 or below – last above 150 was 1983
- Must have had two or more runs this season and between 1 and 5 chase wins
- 3 from last 6 winners ran in the Cleeve Hurdle
- Trainer form: – Jonjo O’Neill: 3/17, 5 places, A King: 2/13, 3 places, P F Nicholls: 0/19, 4 places, N Henderson: 0/18, 6 places
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