Cheltenham Day 3 – a 16/1 Booooooomer yesterday!!!
Thursday 13th March 2014….and it’s Cheltenham Day 3….another profitable day with a boomer of a 16/1 in SILVER CONCORDE in the last married up with SMAD PLACE 13/2 2nd and a N/R in our (21 @ EW doubles) yesterday………
As ever, we’re providing stats to make the selections from ‘What Really Makes Money’ to maybe influence your selections, here they are again, together with the best offers from the bookmakers and our selections……
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Thursday 13 March 2014
- Avoid horses that didn’t finish in the first two in their last outing – exclude Uxizandre, Captain Ocana.
FELIX YONGER should be more at home on this firmer going as it was when winning two hot chases in Ireland before Christmas. Ruby Walsh’s mount has strong claims here and a best priced 4/1 with PaddyPower.
2.05 p.m. – The Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle
- No favourite has won in the last 10 years – there are currently two favourites in Fingal Bay and If In Doubt but this may change up to race time.
- All ten winners were rated at 142 or less – exclude Mickie, Seefood, Jetson, Trustan Times, Southfield Theatre, Fingal Bay.
- Nine of the last ten winners were aged between 6 and 9 years – exclude Quartz de Thaix, Lie Forrit, Pineau de Re.
- Nine of the last ten winners were priced 14/1 or higher – exclude Fingal Bay, If In Doubt.
SOUTHFIELD THEATRE hasn’t had the best of luck in running since winning at Wincanton in October but Paul Nicholl’s mount could have strong claims here and a nice EW price of 25/1 with PaddyPower.
- No top-rated horse has won in the last 10 years – exclude Al Ferof.
- Seven of the last nine winners were placed in the first three in their last race – include Al Ferof, Rathlin, Hunt Ball, Benefficient.
- Seven of the last eight winners were priced at 6/1 or lower – includes currently Dynaste, Benefficient, Al Ferof.
MENORAH could prove good EW value if turning up fully primed. Last time out was held up in rear when running up against Silviniaco Conti at Kempton and was pulled up after a mistake 3 fences out. A nice EW price of 10/1 with BetFred
- Four favourites have won in the last six runnings (four of those were the same horse: Big Bucks) – at present it’s a tussle at the head of the market between Annie Power and Big Bucks.
- All of the last ten winners finished first or second last time out – exclude Big Bucks, Celestial Halo, Reve de Sivola.
- All of the last ten winners finished first or second on all hurdles races that season – include Annie Power, More of That, Quevega, Zarkander, Salubrious.
- All of the last ten winners have run at the festival before – exclude Mala Beach.
Ruby Walsh’s committment to ANNIE POWER (NAP) should give a reasonable clue to this outcome. The step up in trip is an unknown for Willie Mullins’ charge but she wasn’t stopping when racing over 2m 5f in January so a WIN only price bet at 7/4 with BetFred
- Only one favourite has won in the last 10 years – Colour Squadron and Tap Night are current favourites but this will likely change up to race time.
- Nine of the last ten winners were 12/1 or bigger – that includes the whole field, bar the above two mentioned.
- All of the last ten winners had run at Cheltenham previously – exclude Firth of Clyde, Highway Code.
COLOUR SQUADRON has not been penalised for his last run, and whilst looking near his limit on the weights, AP McCoy should be able to boot him to a place or better at 9/1 with PaddyPower.
- Only three favourites have won in the last 10 years – Indian Castle and Cause Of Causes head the market.
- The Irish are yet to win this race – exclude Spring Heeled, Los Amigos, Romanesco, Cause of Causes, Thelobstercatcher, BecauseIcouldntsee, Hunting Party, Raz de Maree, Wrong Turn, Oscar’s Well, Victrix Gale, Living Next Door, Sraid Padraig, Sole Witness, Questions Answered, Rockyaboya, Vesper Bell, Away We Go, Up The Beat, Balnaslow, Your Busy, Caomhe’s Delight, Alvarado, Tabhachtach.
- The last 13 winners ran over at least 3 miles last time out – exclude Buywise, Charingworth, Dashing George, Divine Intavention, Dunlough Bay, Fine Parchment, Indian Castle, Living Next Door, No Buts, Pickamus, Samingarry, Sharney Sike, Sraid Padraig, Sunny Ledgend, Tabhachtach, Toby Lerone, What a Warrior, Wicklow Lad, Wrong Turn, Your Busy.
SPRING HEELED showed well enough when second to an ultra-progressive winner at Limerick (3m) in October to suggest he could be in with a shout in a race like this at a great EW price of 20/1 with PaddyPower.
All the best with YOUR betting today….
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Gold Cup Betting…..[table “12” not found /]
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