Cheltenham Festival Day 1: Killer statistics?
Tuesday 11 March 2014….and day 1 of the festival we’ve been looking forward to all season….do statistics mean anything or is it purely class and form?
Here’s some killer stats from ‘What Really Makes Money’ to maybe influence your selections on Day 1……
1.30 p.m. – the Supreme Novice’s Hurdle
- Only two favourites have won in 19 meetings – Irving and Vautour fight out favouritism
- 15 of the last 17 winners won last time out – include Vautour, Wicklow Brave, Vaniteux, Gilgamboa, Valseur lido, Faugheen, Pearl Castle, Lac Fontana, Splash of Ginge, Art of Payroll, Sgt Reckless, Three Kingdoms, Un Ace, Sky Khan.
- No 4-year-old has won in the last ten years – exclude Pearl Castle.
- No 9, 10 or 11-year-olds have won since 1966 – none.
- The Irish have won nine of the last 15 runnings – include Vautour, Wicklow Brave, Gilgamboa, Valseur Lido, Western Boy, Faugheen, Art of Payroll, Lieutenant Colonel, Renneti, QuickPick Vic.
- The last ten winners all ran in the past 55 days – eliminate Josses Hill, Valseur Lido, Western Boy, Faugheen, The Liquidator, Garde la Victoire, Renneti, Three Kingdoms.
- Four of the last five winners were priced at 10/1 or 12/1.
- Faugheen is 7/1 with PaddyPower and Boylesport, yet 20/1 with Ladbrokes.
- PaddyPower are offering YOUR money back if your selection finishes 2nd, 3rd or 4th!!!!!
2.05 p.m. – Arkle Challenge Trophy
- The last ten winners were all priced at 9/1 or lower – include Champagne Fever, Rock on Ruby, Dodging Bullets, Trifolium, Valdez.
- Nine of the last ten winners were aged between 5 and 8 years old – exclude Rock on Ruby.
- Nine of the last ten winners finished in the first two on all completed chase starts – include Rock on Ruby, Dodging Bullets, Trifolium, Valdez, Hinterland, Grandouet, Felix Yonger, Djakadam, Arnaud, Vukovar, Brick Red.
- Nine of the last ten winners had a pre-race RPR of at least 151 – exclude Ted Veale, Western Warhorse.
- Nine of the last ten winners have previously raced at Cheltenham – exclude Djakadam, Mozoltov, Vukovar, Next Sensation.
2.40 p.m. – Festival Handicap Chase
- Only one horse has won carrying more than 10 stone 12 pounds – exclude Twirling Magnet, Our Father, Vesper Bell, Buddy Bolero, Vintage Star, Green Flag, Ma Filleule, Ackertac, Tap Night, Holywell, Annacotty, Hadrian’s Approach, Golden Chieftan, Restless Harry, Rigadin de Beauchene, Pacha du Polder, Make a Track, Vino Griego, Toner D’oudaires, Cantlow, Hunt Ball.
- The last ten winners were all rated between 129 and 143 – exclude Tap Night, Holywell, Annacotty, Hadrian’s Approach, Golden Chieftain, Restless Harry, Rigadin de Beauchene, Pacha du Polder, Make a Track, Vino Griego, Toner D’oudaires, Cantlow.
- All of the winners have been aged between 7 and 10 – exclude Alfie Sherrin, The Package, Fruity O’Rooney, Fine Parchment, Tullamore Dew.
- Only one favourite has won in 10 years – exclude Alfie Sherrin, The Package, Fruity O’Rooney, Fine Parchment, Tullamore Dew.
- Three double-figure odds winners in the last four years – exclude Cantlow.
3.20 p.m. – Stan James Champion Hurdle
- The Irish have trained the winner of the last six years – include Hurricane Fly, Our Conor, Jezki, Un de Sceaux, Thousand stars, Captain Cee Bee.
- Nine of the last ten winners have previously finished at least fourth at the festival – include Hurricane Fly, The New One, Our Conor, My Tent or Yours, Jezki, Melodic Rendezvous, Ptit Zig, Grumeti, Thousand Stars, Captain Cee Bee.
- Only two favourites in the last seven have won, and that was Hurricane Fly in two of the last three years – exclude Hurricane Fly and the New One – they are the two joint favourites as I write.
- 25 of the last 30 winners won last time out – include Hurricane Fly, My Tent or Yours, Un de Sceaux, Melodic Rendezvous.
- Ten of the last 11 winners were aged between 6–9 years – exclude Hurricane Fly, Thousand Stars, Captain Cee Bee.
4.00 p.m. – OLBG Mares Hurdle
- Quevega has won the last five runnings of this race.
- Quevega is 4/7 favourite………If the Willie Mullins’ trained Quevega wins the David Nicholson Mares Hurdle – she is unbeaten in the race since 2009 – Betfred will refund all losing stakes up to £25.
Get on their offer >>>>HERE<<<<
4.40 p.m. – The National Hunt Challenge Cup
- Three consecutive favourites have won the last three runnings – Foxrock is the current favourite. This might change as we near the day.
- All of the last ten winners were placed first or second in a chase over 3 miles – exclude Living Next Door.
- All of the last ten winners have run at least three times over fences – exclude Ballycasey, Suntiep.
- Just two 5/6-year-old horses winning since 1989 – Foxrock and Rogue Angel.
- Nine of the last 12 runners finished first or second last time out – include Midnight Prayer, Merlin’s Wish, Herdsman, Milborough, Wrong Turn, Suntiep, Holywell, Corrin Wood, Black Thunder, Toby Lerone, Shotgun Paddy, Ballycasey, Foxrock.
- Paul Nicholl’s runners tend to struggle – include Black Thunder, Just a Par.
5.15 p.m. – Novices Handicap Chase
- Only two favourites have won in nine runnings – Pendra is the current favourite.
- Three double-figure odds winners in the last four runnings – exclude Pendra.
- All winners were aged between 5 and 8 – exclude Firm Order, Dark Lover, Manyriverstocross, Renard D’irlande.
- Eight of the last nine runners were placed in the first two last time out – include Manyriverstocross, Persian Snow, Ericht, Dunlough Bay, Ahyaknowyerself, Bobcatbilly, The Way We Were, Wrong Turn, Buywise, Saroque, The Romford Pele, Cause of Causes, Buthelezi, Festival Affair, Up and Go, Dursey Sound, Authinger, Present View, Beforeall, Une Artiste, Indian Castle.
- The Irish have only won this race once – exclude Sizing Machine, Cause of Causes, Art of Logistics, Authinger, Wrong Turn, Living Next Door, Balnaslow, Passage Vendome, King Vuvuzela, The Way We Were.
Are you ready for the festival now???
…..well we’ve got a further great offer from our partner BETFRED
Betfred are offering special enhanced odds and bonuses throughout the festival to help you increase your winnings!
There’s also that other tempting offer, “If the Willie Mullins’ trained Quevega wins the David Nicholson Mares Hurdle – she is unbeaten in the race since 2009 – Betfred will refund all losing stakes up to £25.”
Get on their offers >>>>HERE<<<<
Gold Cup Betting…..[table “12” not found /]
Cheltenham Jockeys Title….[table “11” not found /]
Tuesday’s Racing Selections….
Selections will be posted later…….
Check the long term stats and profits and a full review of this and last seasons selections can be found by following the link below:
View all Horse Racing betting
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