Chester Races: May Meeting: 4 th May 2016


One of our favourite early season mini-festival’s is the Chester Races May meeting and with none of our early season notebookers out today, we’re putting up a placepot for an interest bet.

Chester is a quirky old place but trends are well worth noting with the chance for specialist course winners and specialist course jocks always likely to spring a decent priced winner.

Let’s have a look at some of the key factors before we assess the key races?


  • Aiden O’Brien has sent out 16 winners and 10 places from 39 runners in the last 10 years with a 41{70aeb3532cb26dbe277d25ea128ebb74de84b9bd22e1583b0eb1b73768e061f6} strike rate
    • most of those targeted in G3 or Listed
    • All those 16 winners were aged 3 or 4yo, having said that he doesn’t really do older horses
  • Mark Johnston is the top English trainer with a 15{70aeb3532cb26dbe277d25ea128ebb74de84b9bd22e1583b0eb1b73768e061f6} strike rate and shows a level stakes profit of over 30{70aeb3532cb26dbe277d25ea128ebb74de84b9bd22e1583b0eb1b73768e061f6}
  • Trainers targeting Handicap races
    • Fahey is up near the top of the pile in terms of winners, but when looking at strike rate:
    • Andrew Balding has a 40{70aeb3532cb26dbe277d25ea128ebb74de84b9bd22e1583b0eb1b73768e061f6} + SR, but horses are low in price, whilst
    • P D Evans has had 9 runners, 3 winners and 4 placed at 33{70aeb3532cb26dbe277d25ea128ebb74de84b9bd22e1583b0eb1b73768e061f6} SR at decent prices and similarly
    • David Barron with 9 bets, 3 wins and 6 places for a 33{70aeb3532cb26dbe277d25ea128ebb74de84b9bd22e1583b0eb1b73768e061f6} SR
  • Franny Norton has the top number of wins with a strike rate of 17{70aeb3532cb26dbe277d25ea128ebb74de84b9bd22e1583b0eb1b73768e061f6}
  • Seb de Sousa has the best place rate at over 40{70aeb3532cb26dbe277d25ea128ebb74de84b9bd22e1583b0eb1b73768e061f6}
  • Ryan Moore & William Buick both have fewer total wins but boast over a 23{70aeb3532cb26dbe277d25ea128ebb74de84b9bd22e1583b0eb1b73768e061f6} strike rate
  • No horse since 2003 rated at 100+ has won a handicap
  • Best weight range to back is from 8-7 to 9-6
  • Draw has always been said to be key, especially in races up to 1m (fast starters and a low draw brings a significant ROI?)
    • stats show that for 5 and 6f that is not necessarily the case
    • the two tight turns on the 7f/8f course appear to bring the draw more into play and low are favoured at 7f+
  • AW track horses don’t perform well – period!

Today’s Racing Selections…..

With today not being the prime day for our handicappers, we will put a placepot up for consideration…..

Chester 14.10

FIERY CHARACTER landed a fast time win at Newmarket on seasonal bow and STONEYFORD LANE provides the EW value (2 bets)

Chester 14.40

Ryan Moore’s record here is without question and combined with Mr O’Brien’s record….SOMEHOW should rate as the best lumper (1 bet)

Chester 15.10

Roger Varian has held this as a long term target for STEVE RODGERS, whilst for some value we tale Franny Norton on LE MAITRE CHAT who ran a good Cesarewich back end for his new yard and we will ignore the subsequent AW outing at Kempton (2 bets)

Chester 15.45

KIMBERELLA is another well drawn (allegedly?) for the Chester Meister, Franny Norton whilst Shane Gray has a decent place record and has the job on Kevin Ryan’s speedy MUKAYNIS (2 bets)

Chester 16.20

Another for Roger Varian with MALJAA who was very progressive last term (1 bet)

Chester 16.55

MULK should take the beating after a promising start to career when 2nd at Newmarket on debut. He was staying on well at the finish and should have come on for that (1 bet)

Total: 8 bets

Just hit the image below to take you through to your SkyBet account………


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