Chester Races: May Meeting Day 2
Day 2 sees some of our handicapper’s out and we’ve put another placepot for an interest bet after going close with 5 from 6 yesterday.
Chester is a quirky old place but trends are well worth noting with the chance for specialist course winners and specialist course jocks always likely to spring a decent priced winner.
Let’s have a look at some of the key factors before we assess the key races?
Statistics…..
- Aiden O’Brien has sent out 16 winners and 10 places from 39 runners in the last 10 years with a 41{70aeb3532cb26dbe277d25ea128ebb74de84b9bd22e1583b0eb1b73768e061f6} strike rate
- most of those targeted in G3 or Listed
- All those 16 winners were aged 3 or 4yo, having said that he doesn’t really do older horses
- Mark Johnston is the top English trainer with a 15{70aeb3532cb26dbe277d25ea128ebb74de84b9bd22e1583b0eb1b73768e061f6} strike rate and shows a level stakes profit of over 30{70aeb3532cb26dbe277d25ea128ebb74de84b9bd22e1583b0eb1b73768e061f6}
- Trainers targeting Handicap races
- Fahey is up near the top of the pile in terms of winners, but when looking at strike rate:
- Andrew Balding has a 40{70aeb3532cb26dbe277d25ea128ebb74de84b9bd22e1583b0eb1b73768e061f6} + SR, but horses are low in price, whilst
- P D Evans has had 9 runners, 3 winners and 4 placed at 33{70aeb3532cb26dbe277d25ea128ebb74de84b9bd22e1583b0eb1b73768e061f6} SR at decent prices and similarly
- David Barron with 9 bets, 3 wins and 6 places for a 33{70aeb3532cb26dbe277d25ea128ebb74de84b9bd22e1583b0eb1b73768e061f6} SR
- Franny Norton has the top number of wins with a strike rate of 17{70aeb3532cb26dbe277d25ea128ebb74de84b9bd22e1583b0eb1b73768e061f6}
- Seb de Sousa has the best place rate at over 40{70aeb3532cb26dbe277d25ea128ebb74de84b9bd22e1583b0eb1b73768e061f6}
- Ryan Moore & William Buick both have fewer total wins but boast over a 23{70aeb3532cb26dbe277d25ea128ebb74de84b9bd22e1583b0eb1b73768e061f6} strike rate
- No horse since 2003 rated at 100+ has won a handicap
- Best weight range to back is from 8-7 to 9-6
- Draw has always been said to be key, especially in races up to 1m (fast starters and a low draw brings a significant ROI?)
- stats show that for 5 and 6f that is not necessarily the case
- the two tight turns on the 7f/8f course appear to bring the draw more into play and low are favoured at 7f+
- AW track horses don’t perform well – period!
Today’s Racing Selections…..
Here’s our selections and placepot up for consideration…..
Chester 14.10
What About Carlo/Sennockian Star/(2 bets)
Chester 14.40
Western Hymn (1 bet)
Chester 15.10
US Army Ranger (1 bet)
Chester 15.45
Above N Beyond (1 bet)
Chester 16.20
Havelock/Four Dragons (2 bets)
Chester 16.55
Reflektor/Alsaaden (2 bets)
Total: 8 bets
Just hit the image below to take you through to your SkyBet account………
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