Chester Races: May Meeting: 7 th May 2015
One of our favourite early season mini-festival’s is the Chester Races May meeting and with none of our early season notebookers out today, we’re putting up a placepot for an interest bet.
Chester is a quirky old place but trends are well worth noting with the chance for specialist course winners and specialist course jocks always likely to spring a decent priced winner.
Let’s have a look at some of the key factors before we assess the key races?
Statistics…..
- Aiden O’Brien has sent out 16 winners and 10 places from 39 runners in the last 10 years with a 41{70aeb3532cb26dbe277d25ea128ebb74de84b9bd22e1583b0eb1b73768e061f6} strike rate
- All 16 winners were aged 3 or 4yo, having said that he doesn’t really do older horses
- Mark Johnston is the to English trainer with a 15{70aeb3532cb26dbe277d25ea128ebb74de84b9bd22e1583b0eb1b73768e061f6} strike rate and shows a level stakes profit of over 30{70aeb3532cb26dbe277d25ea128ebb74de84b9bd22e1583b0eb1b73768e061f6}
- Franny Norton has the top number of wins with a strike rate of 16{70aeb3532cb26dbe277d25ea128ebb74de84b9bd22e1583b0eb1b73768e061f6}
- Ryan Moore & William Buick both have fewer total wins but boast over a 23{70aeb3532cb26dbe277d25ea128ebb74de84b9bd22e1583b0eb1b73768e061f6} strike rate
- No horse since 2003 rated at 100+ has won a handicap
- Best weight range to back is from 8-7 to 9-6
- Draw is key, especially in races up to 1m (fast starters and a low draw brings a significant ROI)
- AW track horses don’t perform well
Today’s Racing Selections…..
Chester 14.10……Sennockian Star is entered up again following landing a nice 14/1 advised place at the same meeting last year. He goes well with a bit of cut in the ground.
Tres Coronas has run three times at this meeting and boasts form figures of 211 and was successful in this corresponding race 12 months ago – in which he exploited a 5lb lower mark.
He can continue his love affair with Chester and come from off the pace from stall 4, but keep a close eye on the rapidly-improving Collaboration and the returning Rydan as an impressive winner last time out.
Selections…
TRES CORONAS/COLLABORATION (x2)
Chester 14.40…..CANNOCK CHASE rates a confident selection. Sir Michael Stoute’s four-year-old made rapid strides as a three-year-old and is expected to make up into a top-class performer this season.
With conditions in his favour, he can take another step up the ladder this afternoon. Air Pilot won well at Listed level last time and is feared most, while Maverick Wave and Fattsota merit respect too.
Selections…
CANNOCK CHASE (x1)
Chester 15.10….. Aidan O’Brien has won five of the last eight renewals of this race so his HANS HOLBEIN – a potential improver now stepped up in trip – looks the most solid option with Paul Hanagan in the driving seat.
Tannaaf ran well for fourth in the Tattersalls Millions Trophy at Newmarket three weeks ago. He should confirm superiority with Proposed
Selections…
HANS HOLBEIN/TANAAF (x2)
Chester 15.45….. GEORDIE GEORGE shaped with plenty of promise on his Pontefract comeback. He is ideally drawn whilst stepping up in trip today
Selections…
GEORDIE GEORGE (x1)
Chester 16.20….. FALCON ANNIE is an interesting newcomer for the in-form Tom Dascombe, who took this race in 2012 and 2013, so keep a check on market moves for him. Raj To Riches is taken to fill frame again.
Selections…
FALCON ANNIE/RAJ TO RICHES (x2)
Chester 16.55….. NORTHGATE LAD is less exposed and was returning from a long lay-off when going close at Thirsk on his handicap debut.
He gets the nod for Brian Ellison’s in-form yard ahead of recent Bath winner Cartmell Cleave, who has a 9lb hike to cope with.
Selections…
NORTHGATE LAD (x1)
Full Selections for Placepots….
14.10…..Tres Coronas/Collaboration
14.40…..Cannock Chase
15.10…. Hans Holbein/Tanaaf
15.45…..Geordie George
16.20…..Falcon Annie/Raj To Riches
16.55…..Northgate Lad
Total: 8 bets
It continues to be Premium Newsletter Boomtime for our members with another winning day with our value priced selections.
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Here’s what our membership received yesterday….well in advance of racing and plenty of time to get the early prices offered.
Premium Newsletter – 2nd May 2015
“A massive Bank Holiday weekend of racing with the Guineas Newmarket meeting being the leading feature.
We’re also looking forward to next Thursday’s Chester meeting where we hope to land a nice gamble……..don’t forget to keep in touch with the FaceBook page in your news feed that will let you know when a newsletter has gone out.
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……as always we will continue to publish our proofed selections via the link to our PREMIUM SERVICE selections Proofed Betting Selections
Today’s Racing…..
Thirsk 16.35
Johnny Cavagin is one who we usually get the nod about and gave us a great start to the season with his double digit Doncaster 16/1 advised win on the opening weekend. He’s not for us today in the uber competitive Hunt Cup. His best form is at 7f and we have better news of Keith Dalgleish’s charge SOUND ADVICE.
He had a good stretch out over 1of at Newbury two weeks back and that should have put him about right for a tilt at this. His 8f record is exceptional and he should be up amongst the leaders from the off and is offering us good EACH-WAY value at a best 10/1 at press……..RESULT WON 13/2 from 10/1
Looking at the early evening meeting from Doncaster
Doncaster 17.10
SHERIFF OF NAWTON had a good polytrack season and recorded a C&D here on the opening weekend.
Beaten just a short head in his subsequent race with two of today’s renewals, Beaumont’s Party and Spifer following him up.
However, that form is giving us no real each-way value today, although you can currently get a ‘wipes-your face’ odds of a best 4/1…….RESULT: WON 9/2
Good luck if you’re going with anything today…”ABW
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