D-Day Epsom Derby 2014
ORCHESTRA……remains our best EW shout……
D-Day is Epsom Derby Day 2014 and the seasons blue riband race with AUSTRALIA set to go off favourite as Irish trainer Aidan O’Brien.
O’Brien looks to make history in the 235th Derby as he bids to become the first trainer to saddle the winner three years in a row.
Joseph O’Brien gets the ride on the market leader for his father, who has 4 runners entered up; Geoffrey Chaucer, Orchestra and Kingfisher in a field of 16.
The ground remains…..Good/Good to firm in places……but more rain is forecast today.
It is a truly national sporting event as 125,000 will descend on the Downs today with the three-year-old blue riband championship race is run over a mile and a half of Epsom’s unique twists and turns.
We have a strong favourite in the shape of AUSTRALIA…….at cramped odds of 15/8 we believe he’s a false favourite and better value will be found elsewhere.
Epsom Derby 2014 statistics…..
- Irish trainers have claimed seven of the fourteen renewals since 2000, from just 29{70aeb3532cb26dbe277d25ea128ebb74de84b9bd22e1583b0eb1b73768e061f6} of the runners
- A high draw is disadvantageous, with just three of the last seventeen winners (18{70aeb3532cb26dbe277d25ea128ebb74de84b9bd22e1583b0eb1b73768e061f6}) able to overcome a stall position of higher than ten, from 31{70aeb3532cb26dbe277d25ea128ebb74de84b9bd22e1583b0eb1b73768e061f6} of the runners
- 14 of the last 15 winners of The Derby had been in the top 2 on both of their previous two starts (15/15 top 3)
- Amazingly all of the last 15 Derby winners had finished in the top 3 in every racecourse start they had made since their debut. (eliminates strongly fancied runners like Kingston Hill, Kingfisher, Geoffrey Chaucer, Snow Sky and Australia!!!!)
- All of the last seventeen Derby winners had run within the last 35 days, from 85{70aeb3532cb26dbe277d25ea128ebb74de84b9bd22e1583b0eb1b73768e061f6} of the runners (doesn’t help the likes of Impulsive Moment or Our Channel)
- Every winner bar three, since Commander in Chief in 1993 had won their previous start
- Sixteen of the last seventeen Derby winners came from the first four in the betting.
- The last 14 British and Irish trained Derby winners made their debut at a Grade 1 track (doesn’t bode well for Western Hymn, Arod or Toast Of New York)
- All of the last 15 winners had finished in the top 3 on both their last 2 starts
- The last 15 winners had run a maximum of 7 times
- A recent run benefits – of the last 15 winners had run within the last 35 days
- Outsiders fair poorly – last 15 winners were in the top 4 of the betting
- Favourites abound – the last 15 winners returned 7/1 or under
- Need to have won over 7f as a 2 year old – the last 14 have?
- Lightly raced in the season is an advantage with the last 15 having run once or twice
Epsom Derby 2014 Form Preview
Let’s start with odds on shot, Australia. A winner of two of his four starts to date, and a staying on third in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket on his only run this term.
So is Australia the real deal for Derby glory…..by Derby winner Galileo out of Oaks winner Ouijia Board stamina should pose no problem with Cape Cross and Sea The Stars in his bloodline.
There’s pace within his breeding at the mile trip, but without a run over further than a mile in any of his four starts, he could well be found out.
His debut at the Curragh, saw him beaten by Renaissance Art but beat Carla Bianca next time at the same venue. That rival has, however, failed to win in three subsequent starts.
He ran well enough in the 2000 Guineas and The Great Gatsby subsequently won the Dante at York.
O’Brien describes Australia as the best Derby candidate he’s ever trained…..high praise indeed, however the Ballydoyle’s runners have been slow to hit their peak so far.
A bout of coughing hitting the yard prior to the Irish flat season that appears to have hinderered the progress of he O’Brien runners.
There is no other track quite like Epsom and is usually won by the horse best equipped to handle the unique demands of the track, from its’ unique cambers and undulations and the sweeping turn into the straight at Tattenham Corner.
Many a short priced favourite can be undone around here, so whilst the signs point to Australia with doubts over his stamina and still ‘only’ a Group Three winner we don’t see the value in backing him and we’d rather back one each way?
Onto the rest…..
Geoffrey Chaucer is an improving sort and he’s a viable place possible, though his price is short enough now at a best priced 10/1 with Skybet.
The Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial looked the deepest field in terms of quality, and if improvement comes from that run, then Dermot Weld’s Fascinating Rock with the prospect of slightly better ground and handling Epsom’s contours has a fine chance of making the frame at least and a best 14/1 with Betfred.
Ebanoran for his part seemed to nick that race – from a first past the post perspective, at least looking all out by the line. That was his second start this term, so he may not have as much progression as some to Derby day and is a best priced 16/1 with BetVictor.
Kingston Hill trained by Roger Varian, was an impressive winner of the Racing Post Trophy last autumn, but was five lengths behind Night Of Thunder in the 2000 Guineas. The ground was good to firm that day, and it was soft at Doncaster for his Group 1 win, and therein may lie the key. We discussed his chances if the rain came and its been reflected in his price and now only a best priced 10/1 with BetVictor when previously we had advised him as good EW shot at EW 16/1 with BetButler.
Western Hymn looked a world beater on his seasonal reappearance, surging clear of a field headed by Snow Sky. He was then a convincing winner of the Lingfield Derby Trial, effectively eliminating anything beaten that day as not good enough. Since then, Western Hymn was less than impressive when winning the Sandown Classic Trial. This race hasn’t been a yardstick and whilst unbeaten is not one for us and a best 18/1 with bet365.
True Story (our notebook runner) was brilliant in the Feilden Stakes at Newmarket, over nine furlongs. A hot shot in the Dante at York, he was never travelling at any point in the race and Fallon did well to finish as close as he did, a one and a half length third. The going was offered as an excuse, plus coming too quick after the Fielden – advised at 16/1 with BetVictor, now a best 14/1 with bet365
Orchestra was last seen winning the Chester Vase, the race taken by Ruler Of The World en route to Derby glory last year. Orchestra ran green as grass that day and has bags of scope to be better than the bare form of that run. He’s a great a place chance, and he has an almost perfect stats fit. If he could step up again on what he’s done so far, despite Ryan Moore defecting to Geoffrey Chaucer, he still looks a great EW shout at 16/1 with Betfair.
Epsom Derby 2014 selections……
Orchestra each way 16/1 (1/4 odds 1-2-3) Betfair
Fascinating Rock each way 14/1 (1/4 odds 1-2-3) Betfred, Seannie Mac,
Kingston Hill (soft) each way 12/1 (1/4 odds 1-2-3) BetButler
Today’s other notebook runners……
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We’ve had an amazing start to the flat season and all our full results can be checked out at ‘Always Back Winners Selections’. It’s now over a MEGA 100{70aeb3532cb26dbe277d25ea128ebb74de84b9bd22e1583b0eb1b73768e061f6} ROI with over 50{70aeb3532cb26dbe277d25ea128ebb74de84b9bd22e1583b0eb1b73768e061f6} strike rate!!!!!!
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Scoop6 News…..
Scoop6 Races for June 7th 2014 are: –
Race 1 : 2:05 Epsom Race 2 : 3:15 Epsom Race 3 : 3:30 Musselburgh Race 4 : 4:00 Epsom Race 5 : 4:50 Epsom Race 6 : 5:25 Epsom
There was no winner of the Scoop6 last Saturday. This is great news for you as the Win fund starts at £174,192 and the bonus fund starts at£74,654. Both these totals will grow rapidly as more stakes are placed.
The Investec Derby, Britain’s richest horse race, will be the fourth leg of this weekend’s totescoop6, where around £500,000 is expected to line the combined pools.
A total of five legs will come from Epsom, with the remaining leg contested at Musselburgh.
Get on the Scoop 6 with Betfred who are also offering all new mobile customers a free £10 Sports bet. Once players have used their free £10 bet, they will also be entitled to a £25 Matched Bet.
Get on the SCOOP6 TOTEPOOL offer >>>>HERE<<<<
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To review our results from our 12 flat horses to follow ……follow via that link.
Check out our dedicated page of this seasons ‘Notebook Performers’
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