Everton v Manchester City: 3rd May 2014
Everton v Manchester City today in another end of season clash with a massive influence on the desitny of the Premiership. We’ve got a full review, plus a mega offer
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Team News…..
Everton’s Phil Jagielka returns to the squad after a 10-week absence with a hamstring injury, with Sylvain Distin doubtful with similar problem while on-loan Gareth Barry is unavailable against his parent club.
David Silva has been named in the Manchester City squad and could feature after recovering from an ankle injury.
But winger Jesus Navas, who has also been battling with an ankle injury, has been ruled out.
Preview…..
The fact that Everton success in this match could help their rivals to the title is merely an interesting aside, with the Toffees having plenty of their own reasons to finish the season strongly.
Sergio Aguero is looking sharper with every game in their attack and, David Silva should return for this match. Yaya Toure is back fit for them now too, and he was fantastic in their win at Crystal Palace.
What this City team experienced in 2012, when they beat QPR with two stoppage-time goals to win the title on goal difference, will help them this time around.
For the Toffees, top of that list of course is Champions League qualification. Defeat at Southampton last week coupled with Arsenal’s win against Newcastle has rendered it highly unlikely, but by ‘going first’ again, they have the chance to move back to being just one point behind the Gunners, and put a little extra pressure on their Sunday game against West Brom.
Last May, Roberto Martinez masterminded a huge blow to Manchester City with Wigan’s FA Cup final win, and one of his Wembley stars must play a huge role for City to be calling ‘Mayday’ once again.
James McCarthy has rightly been praised for his midfield work this season, but – in the absence of holding partner Gareth Barry – he’s got a massive shift ahead of him in this one, particularly in trying to halt the seemingly unstoppable force of Yaya Toure.
The Ivorian was outstanding at Selhurst Park last Sunday and, in taking his season’s league goals tally to 19, now stands on the brink of following Frank Lampard as the only Premier League midfielders to hit 20 in a campaign.
I often think you can tell in the first few minutes of a game how it’s going to go for Toure, and if he comes out striding purposely forward from deep right at the very start, then the opposition are usually in trouble.
When he limped off and City lost at Anfield three weeks ago, many wouldn’t have seen them as being masters of their own fate on Merseyside again for what should be their last big hurdle (Aston Villa and West Ham will think differently).
Barring Liverpool scoring 11 or more in their remaining two games, the title will be back at the Etihad if City win their last three. But it’s winning at Goodison that’s been a historical problem.
Statistics….
- Everton have won on the last four occasions they have hosted Manchester City. City’s only goal in those four matches came from Yaya Toure.
- City have won only once in their last 15 league visits to Goodison Park (W1, D4, L10).
- City’s win in the reverse fixture in October ended Everton’s six-match unbeaten start to the season.
- Everton have won eight of their last 10 league games, but have lost two of the last three.
- The Toffees failed to score last time out, having found the net in their previous nine league games.
- Everton have scored 18 goals in the last 15 minutes of their league matches this season, second only to Saturday’s opponents Man City (21).
- This season, Roberto Martinez’s side have won 18 of the 20 league games where they have scored first (W18, D1, L1).
- City have five points more than they did after 35 games last season but three fewer than in their title-winning season of 2011-12.
- Man City’s last five league goals have come before half-time.
- Since the start of December, City have taken more points away from home (27) than any other team.
- Yaya Toure needs one more goal to become only the second central midfielder to score 20+ goals in a Premier League season (after Frank Lampard with 22 in 2009-10).
- Sergio Aguero has scored just once in his last seven games in all competitions; Alvaro Negredo has not scored in his last 14.
Betting…..
Seemingly written off in the title race, City are now slight favourites to win the Premier League following Livepool’s slip at home to Chelsea last weekend. The equation is simple for Manuel Pellegrini’s side – win the last three games and the title will surely be theirs thanks to a handy +58 goal difference that is eight better than Liverpool’s.
City arrive at Goodison Park on the back of a two-game winning streak and are strongly favoured to make it three. Everton, beaten just twice in the league this year, are the 5.0 outsiders with the draw a 4.1 shot.
Ordinarily, at those prices we’d be keen to get against City in some way – Everton’s home record this year is right up there, taking maximum points from 13 games and drawing three while losing just twice.
They also boast a fantastic recent record against Saturday’s opponents, Everton have won nine of their last 13 Barclays Premier League meetings with City (D1 L3).
But the potential absentees really weaken Everton defensively and up against an opponent with everything to play for I have to side with the visiting side in some way.
Though Navas will be missed, City still have plenty ofgoalscorers in their potential lineup – Yaya Toure, Sergio Aguero, Edin Dzeko, Alvaro Negredo and Samir Nasri have 62 between them – and a second-string Everton backline could be opened up a few times.
Make no mistake, though the pool of talent at the Etihad is deep,Sergio Aguero is City’s key man. The 25-year-old scored heavily earlier this season, hitting the back of the net in eight consecutive games until injuring himself against Tottenham.
In 32 appearances he has 27 goals. If City are to win – and that is my expectation – then Aguero will be to the fore.
At 6.0 he is a decent first scorer bet.
Suggested Bets…..
Back City Over 2.5 goals @ 2.5
Back Aguero to score first @6.0
PLUS.…..we’ve a great offer today…..
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