Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) – Cheltenham Day 2
16.50 Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) – Cheltenham Day 2
Another field of 20+ to get stuck into and a bigger ‘pin the tail to the donkey’ race than the Grand National with around 17 of these brutes on handicap debut!!!
It’s a race that the statos like whereby you can get stuck into previous trends to whittle out a decent priced winner with the last four winners returning at 25/1, 33/1, 25/1 & 40/1 and 7 of the last 11 winners have gone of at an SP of 14/1 or bigger!!!!
Let’s check the stats and trends for this one….
- Top 7 LTO
- 11/11 had an OR of 133 or below
- Preferably 124+
- Had a run in last 40 days
- ran in a non-handicap hurdle LTO
- 3-5 previous hurdle starts
- less runs = less chance the handicapper can assess
- Raced above class 5 LTO
- Finished in first 2 within last 5 runs
Paul Nichols is doubly represented with the favourite, Diego Du Charmil and has obvious claims in a handicap where he carries nine pounds less than the top weight.
However, it’s his 2nd string, ROMAIN DE SENAM that is more of interest having proven himself on better ground and he will surely improve after a run against his elders LTO…..off a mid-130s rating he should go well here.
Our Thomas represents Tim Easterby who won this in 2014. It looks like he has adopted a similar preparation with regular jock Brian Hughes up top.
ROMAIN DE SENAM 0.5pt EW @ 25/1 with SkyBet in the Fred Winter
OUR THOMAS 0.5pt EW @ 20/1 with Bet365 in the Fred Winter
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