Horse Racing Selections – 18th July 2021


A sole meeting from Redcar is Sunday’s offering on the flat.

There’s a couple of decent sized Class 6 handicaps to consider and notes are below. Well done to Peter for finding a couple of winners late in the day to ease the ongoing pain for those following 🙂 Onwards…..

Back in the morning around 8.30am.


For those on the new 2021/22 £1k to £10k Annual Challenge, the bank is £1084.73 and current full stakes, unless advised, £13.84 EW

The 2021 Turf bank currently stands at +56.2 pts to 1pt EW stakes with over a 42% win/place rate. 

The 2020/21 All Weather bank ended at +144 pts to 1pt EW stakes with over a 39% win/plac rate.

Link to full results >> HERE


Today’s member’s notes are below….

BOL (Best Of Luck!) with any of your betting selections.

Stay safe!

ABW Team

Today’s Selections

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    STRATFORD 16.50 Scartare HALF UNIT EW 16 HILLS
    15.55 Create Belief 1 UNIT WIN 15/8 MOST FIRMS
    Thats all good luck

  2. 👍😁

  3. Create Belief is a non runner

  4. For the disenchanted.
    I’ve been hear just 12 days short of 12 months.
    I joined at a bad time. First 16 bets went down, then three in a row won.
    Over the months I’ve increased my stake. We’ve had bad runs, but I’m still 22% up on investment.
    It’s a long term game people. Keep records, and stick with it.

    Sundays is Gary’s 2nd best day of the week for winners :)…(21%) and 49%ROI.
    Good luck today Gary.

  5. I think that most people will have backed Abw tip by now but again it has no chance with the draw sorry

  6. Peter – your obsession with the draw is quite baffling. Yes, of course it can play a big factor at certain tracks and in certain situation but to say that Gary’s selection today had ‘no chance’ purely because of the draw is staggeringly untrue – what does your obsession with this stem from?

  7. First 4 home drawn 8,1,13,10. Jupiter drawn 11. No further comment required except to say not beaten by draw just not good enough or maybe the fact Tinkler won with his other one is more relevant

    • Hi Peter, I am genuinely curious as to your strong comments re draw, as I have seen you post it quite often as if it’s a complete all or nothing in all races when that really isnt the case. Do you seriously base a lot of your punting purely on a horses draw?

    • Or maybe because the jockey repeatedly went for none existent gaps against the rail. V poor ride.

      • Again did the horse win, what you need to understand is that the stats done lie

        • No it didnt win Peter and neither did the other 11 in the race did they all have bad draws as well? The frame horses were spread equally as i stated earlier. As for stats, here are some. Since 2011 there have been four, yes four, races run over 9f at Redcar involving 13 runners. Winners were drawn 1,5, 9 and 13. How can you possibly claim there to be any draw bias in that race. Of the top 3 places in those races half were filled by horses drawn 7 or higher again absolutely no hint of bias and how anyone can draw conclusions from 4 races on any measure is absolutely beyond me

          • It’s impossible and I’m not really sure why he continues to die on this hill. Not one of his claims that I have seen re draw are based on anything other than pure speculation from a ridiculously small sample sizes or incorrect data.

            I see that he once referenced ‘Inform Racing’ as to where he gets his data for draw bias/results – this is a software that is known to be absolutely useless when it comes to the draw and they recently had a huge error where results were being accidentally falsified re the draw in relation to their system builder. Now, this isn’t to bash on Inform Racing whatsoever as it is a fantastic service with many benefits and I am subscriber myself and use it daily. I would recommend it to everyone who likes to pick out their own winners, however, using their stats for draw data is as good as guessing yourself as it doesn’t go into anywhere near enough detail and/or is simply wrong.

            Peter – if you laid every single horse that had a draw win % of less than 5% (a number you continuously seem to mention) you would be many many many thousands of pounds in the red.

  8. Another stat for you Peter – if you had laid every single horse with a ‘realistic chance’ (BSP 30/1 <) between 2017 – yesterday with a draw win % of between 0-5 you would have lost money every single year with an accumulated loss of over 560 points.

    This loss is for both AW and the FLAT – neither code made a blind profit.

    Now if we pull that down to horses with a more realistic chance of less than 20/1 BSP you are still looking at a loss over the last 5 years of almost 80 points.

    In order to begin to see a profit over the last 5 years, you need to reduce the prices you are laying at to 10/1 < and even so, the results are patchy. Suggesting they are due to randomness rather than a systematic opportunity that 'something cannot win', and I suspect the archie score for this would not be over the required threshold to positively rule out the chance of randomness.

    What backs up my claim here re randomness is that when you include data from the last 10 years at odds of 10/1 BSP or below you are staring down the barrel of a loss at almost 400 points and an awful strike-rate of just over 80%.

    So as you say Peter, that stats don't lie – and you are simply wrong.

    It is categorically incorrect to state that a horse 'cannot win' purely based on its draw, and if you were to blindly lay these horses you would be significantly out of pocket every year for the last 10 years, regardless of the prices you are laying at.

    I therefore think that you stop posting your (flawed) opinion re the draw in relation to Gary's selections moving forward as they are based on nothing but speculation and/or incorrect data. You could be wrongly influencing people not to back a potential winner of Gary's (as believe it or not horses with a compromising draw CAN AND DO win).

    • I also use Focus Ratings for the draw

    • Yes I agree that horse’s do win from a poor draw but when the win rate is 2% or 3% you ate looking at 97 or 98 loosing bets now those odds are too high for me

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