Horse Racing Selections – 5th April 2021
Easter Monday’s racing action comes from Redcar and Wolves.
We’ll leave the turf alone today with a sole tracker out at Dunstall Park we will have a look at in the member notes below. A placed effort with Red Allure maintained our good start yesterday.
Back tomorrow with a look at Ponty & Chelmsford around 8.30 am.
For those on the new 2021/22 £1k to £10k Annual Challenge, the bank is £1191.92 and current full stakes, unless advised, £14.90 EW
The All Weather bank currently standing at +153 pts to 1pt EW stakes with over a 39% win/place rate.
Link to full results >> HERE
Today’s member’s notes are below….
BOL (Best Of Luck!) with any of your betting selections.
Stay safe!
ABW Team
Today’s Selections
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Hi Gary, lovely 4 days so far – I bet you have probably covered this a million times so apologies, but what is the method behind the half stakes with the new bank prices. I know you’ve said before sometimes it is a struggle getting the big bucks on later on in the challenge?
Best of Luck today
Hi Chris,
I tend to be on half stakes around the end of the AW and beginning of the flat as form is ‘slightly indifferent’. Obviously looking back at the last 4 days with hindsight they would have been better at full LOL. Nonetheless, I just have to go off my past performance results when the peaks are mid season and the going is deemed more consistent, or in the case of the AW, form is better to read. I think I have posted a couple of times this week about not getting caught up in the exact pence for the bets. The £1k to £10k is an illustration of how percentage staking can grow a bank to a decent level for newcomers to then allow a capped higher level bet, whilst the 1.25% EW gives the comfort of 40 bets in the pot. Personally I am backing level stakes EW higher than the £12.50 EW whilst trying to spread it and maintain open accounts. Harry made a good point yesterday about the odd pence betting, that I believe alerts bookies to potential bot betting and an early closure of the account. Hope that helps, Best Gary
Hi Gary, thanks for the explanation, I knew there would be a completely rational explanation for the half stakes, I think due to this being new to me, I’ve neglected the form of the previous years of you doing this (even though I’ve actually done simple analysis on the results – my bad / cue some more analysis).
I think one of the most important things I have learned over the few months is compounding for profits, it seems compounding is fundamental to the success of the challenge; given that the challenge is so easy to follow with worse case scenario built in, this is one of the best things I’ve come across.
Longer term, you have just got me to think about BSP and I think I will start recording these as the BM accounts are inevitably going to be lost.
You will definitely get limited and barred from offers and BOG (best odds guaranteed)at bookies if you bet in pence consistently and particularly if you win consistently. I am barred from almost all high street books because of matched betting. Bookies really don’t like folk who take value and win over time. I can’t think why? LOL.
I use Betfair with 2% commission to back Gary’s selections. In addition to the better odds you get on an exchange, you can also back to 4 places in 7 horse races there. That is what I have done with Nazar today.
…which has just proved it’s usefullness.
it certainly did – out of interest what odds did you manage to get on the 4 places – and how did the R4 affect this?
Rule 4 didn’t come into it as my bet was placed after the reduction to 7 runners. I got 1.74, so didn’t manage to cover my win bet completely. I usually do better than this as Gary’s picks are normally long enough odds to get me better than evens (2) on the 4 place market.