[final_countdown id=”rmK7TTV” width=”620px” height=”300px”]Irish Grand National 2016
17.30 Irish Grand National 2016
A final field of 29 has been declared for the Irish Grand National, including eight trained by Gordon Elliott and eight owned by Michael O’Leary’s Gigginstown Stud.
Ground conditions no worse than soft are predicated with Venitien De Mai, trained near the track by Jim Dreaper, topping most ante-post betting lists at 8/1, followed by Mala Beach and his full sister, Bonny Kate, at 10/1.
Paying 5 places for the sponsors BoyleSports lets see if we can eek out a few bits of value?
Let’s check the stats and trends for this one….
- Under 11-4
- Under 143 OR
- 1-4 Chase wins
- Under 8 Handicap Chase runs
- Ran in last 65 days
- Jonjo O’Neill has 2 wins and 4 places from 7 runs
Cause Of Causes comes in on the back of his exertions in the Kim Muir, he now has to go off a mark of a 12lbs higher mark than the that race and the stat above makes him look prohibitive in this.
Winner of the Leinster National, Venitien de Mai from the top stable of Jim Dreaper, looks the type to progress again as his stamina is drawn out and may well have more to offer given his profile. Up 10 lb in the weights for that, he will need to come on a bit more to win here. However, despite still being a novice he looks to be improving rapidly after winning a beginners chase at Down Royal prior to the Leinster.
Gordon Elliott’s best chance of a first win in this race could be with Mala Beach who was a good hurdler 2 years ago winning the Galmoy Hurdle. Chasing improvement continued with a good 4th to Don Poli at Leopardstown. He missed Cheltenham to wait for this race and we expect him in the mix despite a fall LTO at Fairyhouse.
Another of his, Killer Crow did well to finish second behind Empire Of Dirt in the Leopardstown Chase LTO. Raised to 134 for that, it’s a step up in trip today but we expect him to handle that and with just 7 chase runs on the clock he is one for the future on the better going.
Bonny Kate missed Cheltenham for this one and was impressive when winning over three and a half miles well at Punchestown on her handicap debut in January. She is unexposed both over the trip and in handicaps but remains a progressive chaser at increased value over the first two we have just considered.
Jonjo’s Another Hero was a good hurdler who followed that up with two beginners wins at Ascot & Ludlow when sent chasing. JP McManus’s charge looks on a decent mark here off 136 and with Jonjo no mug in terms of sticking them in the winners enclosure must be considered.
Last years winner, Thunder & Roses has been targeted for this being lightly raced this season and wasn’t even considered for Cheltenham. LTO he was 5th to Boston Bob in a class 1 chase that should have put him on track He’s difficult to leave out of calculations with his previous C&D form.
Sub Lieutenant will go for Bryan Cooper who is another who has missed Aintree for this. LTO he won a Grade 3 3m4f novices at Naas and wasn’t for stopping at the finish.
Trained by last years winning trainer, Sandra Hughes will be hopeful that he can maintain the progression form the hurdles switch where he finished in front of No More Heroes and just behind Thistlecrack over 3 miles in a Grade 1 at Punchestown.
He just gets in at one pound under the 11-4 stat mentioned at the top of the page and another that will benefit from the drying conditions.
Ballyadam Approach warrants a look from the longer priced punts after being impressive at Punchestown last term, if he stays the distance he could be a good priced place.
However another form the longer prices to be considered is Jarob who will relish the drying ground and nature of the galloping track.
Andrew Lynch has had this one targeted for the season and off an ideal weight that may still be underestimated, he warrants attention from the longer prices.
Suggested bets…….paying 5 places!!!!
ANOTHER HERO 1.0 pt EW @ 12/1 with Boylesports in the Irish National
KILLER CROW 0.5pt EW @ 12/1 with Boylesports in the Irish National
SUB LIEUTENANT 0.5pt EW @ 16/1 with Boylesports in the Irish National
JAROB 0.25pt EW @ 33/1 with Boylesports in the Irish National
Leave a Reply
You must be logged in to post a comment.