Monday Newsletter – 7th January 2019

Monday Newsletter – 7th January 2019

 

Racing from Chepstow and Musselburgh today. Not a lot from the latter where only the (14.25) offers a decent double digit field size where Nicky Richards trained Wot A Shot offers wipes yer face EW value being one 5 below a highest winning mark. The trainer is in good form and this one is the only C&D charge in the line up.

At Chepstow, Sea Story goes in the (13.05) – that’s another wipes yer face price whose run LTO can possibly be excused at 2m 5f and now goes handicapping for the first time dropped back in trip.

In the (15.50), Cloudy Glen’s presence pushed the odds out elsewhere in the market and that will be the focus of our members bet today with Timeform is for the same Chepstow meeting.

 

For those on the £1k to £10k challenge….we’ve now over a 33% win/place strike rate …..our bank is now £898.16 and current stakes are now £11.23 EW

 

Anyone wishing to contact us direct, please use the email address alwaysbackwinners2018@gmail.com or at feedback@ always-back-winners.com……any FREE SERVICE MEMBERS looking to receive the latest premium service selections and join the next £1k to £10k quest.……just follow the UPGRADE link.

 

BOL (Best Of Luck!)

ABW Team

Here’s today’s free Timeform and the assist for the Chepstow card from the ‘speedmeisters’…..click on the highlighted link to take you through to your Betfair account……

1.05 interbet.com £200 Casino Welcome Bonus Mares’ Handicap Hurdle (4) 2m11y

Timeform Top Rated:
126 1. QUEEN’S MAGIC Neil Mulholland Tom Scudamore
125p 4. EMPREINTE RECONCE Colin Tizzard Aidan Coleman
124 2. LOVE LANE Henry Oliver Jason Dixon (7)

Analyst’s Verdict:
Queen’s Magic took a step forward over hurdles when fourth on handicap debut at Cheltenham, and given her bumper ability, she should be up to winning a race like this from her current mark. She may have most to fear from a couple of handicap debutantes in Empreinte Reconce and Sea Story.

1.40 interbet.com £10 Free Bet Maiden Hurdle (5) 2m11y

Timeform Top Rated:
137 11. SEVARANO Oliver Sherwood Aidan Coleman
121 7. MELCHIOR KING Philip Hobbs Richard Johnson
120p 12. THREE COUNTY’S Olly Murphy David England

Analyst’s Verdict:
This should be a good opening for Sevarano, who was useful in bumpers last season and has taken pretty well to hurdling with a brace of runner-up efforts so far. Most of these look long-term projects, but Three County’s and Melchior King are capable of making their presence felt.

2.10 interbet.com Sports Betting Novices’ Handicap Chase (4) 2m7f131y

Timeform Top Rated:
120 5. TOP AND DROP Venetia Williams Charlie Deutsch
115x 9. TIKKAPICK Colin Tizzard Harry Cobden
113p 2. SANDHURST LAD Warren Greatrex Richard Johnson

Analyst’s Verdict:
Top And Drop might have found his latest run coming too soon and is worth another chance to build on his good run here. Tikkapick and Sandhurst Lad head the dangers.

2.40 interbet.com Happy New Year Novices’ Hurdle (4) 2m3f100y

Timeform Top Rated:
133 5. DASHEL DRASHER Jeremy Scott Matt Griffiths
129 1. CLONDAW ANCHOR Dan Skelton Harry Skelton
127 2. LAMANVER PIPPIN Colin Tizzard Harry Cobden

Analyst’s Verdict:
A wide-margin winner of his sole start between the flags, Dickie Diver is a potentially exciting recruit to this sphere for his top connections and the hint should be taken if there’s confidence behind him in the betting. Useful-chaser Walk In The Mill may find things happening too quickly on this belated hurdles debut and a bigger threat is likely to be posed by Dashel Drasher.

3.15 interbet.com At Betting Sites Bettingsites.Ltd.UK Handicap Chase (4) 2m11y

Timeform Top Rated:
132+ 6. AIR DE ROCK Venetia Williams Charlie Deutsch
130 4. DOC CARVER Henry Oliver Jeremiah McGrath
128 3. DEADLY APPROACH Sarah-Jayne Davies James Bowen

Analyst’s Verdict:
Air de Rock was likely to have won had he not departed 2 out on his second start over fences at Ffos Las in November and is taken to make amends. Lickpenny Larry ran well on his return and is next best ahead of Doc Carver.

3.50 interbet.com New Betting Site Handicap Hurdle (4) 2m3f100y

Timeform Top Rated:
141 4. CLOUDY GLEN Venetia Williams Hugh Nugent (7)
129 3. CARRIGMOORNA MATT Neil Mulholland Noel Fehily
128p 13. CASWELL BAY Evan Williams Adam Wedge

Analyst’s Verdict:
It’d hard to get away from Cloudy Glen, who is able to race off the same mark as when leading from pillar to post on his recent seasonal reappearance under this rider at Haydock. Clear next best is the 4-y-o Caswell Bay, who has been handed a fair-looking opening mark judged on what he’s shown in a couple of juvenile hurdles. The down-in-class Friday Night Light is another to consider.