Royal Ascot 2015: Day 1

royal-ascot-2014 royal-ascot-george-chaloner-riding-baccarat_

The start of Royal Ascot 2015 with Day 1 not particularly our favourite day of the festival with the only handicap being a two mile plus. We’ve posted some stats and trends for a couple of races here and look forward to more opportunities with horses we have been backing through the season. There’s also a full Day 1 Timeform guide to each race……

It will also give us a chance to assess the all important going and draw considerations that may come into play through the week. The above is our last day festival winner, BACCARAT powering home at a great priced 14/1 advised….backed into 9’s

When it comes to Flat racing glitz, most people think of Royal Ascot. It’s true British pageantry at its best, with tops ‘n’ tails and Her Majesty the Queen in attendance.

Champagne and strawberries on the lawns, Land of Hope & Glory being played in the Ascot gardens in the after race parties……combined with the incredible racing, it comes together to form one of Britain’s most iconic sporting pageants.

We’ve decided to feature a couple of races per day for our regular stat pack feature and hopefully some of our notebookers will be performing well.

Obviously at this early stage, we haven’t got the full declarations and draws, so we’ll post selections daily, but these are the advanced statistics that can impact on the race outcome…..however tread carefully as going and draw considerations may become apparent during the meet as last year when those drawn high were significantly advantaged.

Royal Ascot – Day 1 Tuesday

Featured Race – (14.30) Queen Anne Stakes (8f)

Since the Queen Anne was upgraded to Grade 1 status;

  • ten of the 12 winners had won at the highest level earlier in their career.
  • only one winner since 1995 started outside of the first four in the betting
  • 4 yr olds dominate -and the last winner aged over five was way back in 1976.
  • Toronado was the first winner to score on his seasonal debut since 1997
  • 10 of the last 18 winners emerged from the Al Shaqab Lockinge Stakes
  • furthermore, 19 of the last 34 came form that race

Suggested Bets….

The Lockinge stats points us straight to last season’s Qipco 2000 Guineas winner, Richard Hannon’s NIGHT OF THUNDER

Hannon will be attempting to win the race for the fourth time in seven years following Paco Boy, Canford Cliffs and Toronado.

NIGHT OF THUNDER – best priced 6/1 with SkyBet

Ascot Queen anne

Featured Race – (15.40) Kings Stand Stakes (5f)

The third race on the card is the Kings Stand Stakes over 5 furlongs with runners from far afield internationally. Being run on the opening day it allows horses to try and win the sprint double with the Diamond Jubilee Stakes run on the last day.

It’s a Group 1 race and part of the annual WWGSC (Worldwide Global Sprint Challenge), held in countries such as Japan, Singapore and Australia. The international field becomes part of the problem, with 6 from the last 10 winners coming form overseas.

As you would expect for a competitive Group 1 sprint, pattern-race winners dominate which is no suprise with 17 of the last 25 winners having already won Group 1 or Group 2 events with 13 of the last 14 winners winning a Group race over the minimum trip of five furlongs.

9 of the last 15 winners were also successful on their most recent race and nine of the last ten winners finished first or second last time out.


  • 11 of the last 13 winners had won over 6 furlongs.
  • 6 of the last 10 winners were overseas trained.
  • No horse has won back to back since before the war.
  • 8 out of the last 13 winners were trained overseas.
  • 12 out of the last 13 winners had ran at least twice that season.
  • 11 out of the last 13 winners had won a Group race already.
  • Favourites have only won once in the last thirteen years
  • However, 8 from the last 10 were priced 8/1 or less.
  • Of the last 10 races only one three year old has won
  • Fillies/mares have won five of the last 21 runnings which is a decent strike rate.

Suggested Bets….

The Temple Stakes ran at Haydock has been a good pointer for British runners, with five winners of that Group 2 affair since 1990 following up here . 

Sole Power also contested the Temple Stakes two years ago where he finished fourth before winning the King’s Stand last year

PEARL SECRET beat Jack Dexter and Wind Fire in this years renewal and with David Barron’ older charges performing well he looks good each way value at 16/1 across the board but a best 20/1 with Bet Victor

Royal Ascot Day 1 Timeform

2.30 Queen Anne Stakes (Group 1) (1) 1m

Timeform Top Rated:
145 1. ABLE FRIEND J. Moore Joao Moreira
144 6. SOLOW F. Head Maxime Guyon
141 5. NIGHT OF THUNDER Richard Hannon James Doyle

Analyst’s Verdict:
Foreign superstars Able Friend and Solow both come here with impressive winning streaks behind them and are likely to provide a stiff test for Night of Thunder and Toormore. Solow’s a skinny price for one yet to contest a top 1m race so preference is for Able Friend, whose potent turn of foot can prove decisive.

3.05 Coventry Stakes (Group 2) (1) 6f

Timeform Top Rated:
120 5. BURATINO Mark Johnston William Buick
119p 14. ROUND TWO J. S. Bolger Kevin Manning
117p 8. FINNEGAN Wesley A. Ward Joel Rosario

Analyst’s Verdict:
Air Force Blue beat 2 subsequent winners in what is traditionally a strong maiden at the Curragh on debut last month and can enhance his trainer’s superb record in this event. Round Two clearly has plenty going for him, while War Department is also on the shortlist after his impressive debut success at Leicester.

3.40 King’s Stand Stakes (Group 1) (1) 5f

Timeform Top Rated:
138 12. SOLE POWER Edward Lynam Richard Hughes
136 1. G FORCE David O’Meara Pat Smullen
135p 8. MUTHMIR William Haggas Paul Hanagan

Analyst’s Verdict:
Muthmir gave further indication he has what it takes to go right to the top in the sprinting division when landing his first success at Group level in France last time and may prove too strong for Sole Power, who is seeking a hat-tick in this contest. Mecca’s Angel is another to consider if proving as effective on the likely much quicker surface, alongside Australian-raider Shamal Wind.

4.20 St James’s Palace Stakes (Group 1) (1) 1m

Timeform Top Rated:
140 4. GLENEAGLES Aidan O’Brien Ryan Moore
134p 6. MAKE BELIEVE A. Fabre Olivier Peslier
132 2. BELARDO Roger Varian James Doyle

Analyst’s Verdict:
Dual Guineas-winner Gleneagles is the clear form pick and a confident selection to give his trainer a record seventh success in the race. The promising Consort is suggested for the forecast, though French-raider Make Believe is respected also.

5.00 Ascot Stakes (Handicap) (2) 2½m

Timeform Top Rated:
115 12. RAY WARD David Simcock Jim Crowley
114 19. HARDSTONE John Patrick Murtagh F. M. Berry
113 13. BROXBOURNE Nicky Henderson Jamie Spencer

Analyst’s Verdict:
Ray Ward may well have gone close in this last year but for meeting trouble and can build on a promising reappearance over an inadequate trip and land the big staying handicap success he’s been threatening for a while. There are plenty of possible dangers, headed by Broxbourne, who arrives on the back of a good spell over hurdles, and Boite, who shaped well on his recent return to the Flat.

5.35 Windsor Castle Stakes (Listed) (1) 5f

Timeform Top Rated:
110p 20. STEADY PACE Saeed bin Suroor James Doyle
108P 18. SOAPY AITKEN Clive Cox Adam Kirby
108p 21. WASHINGTON DC Aidan O’Brien Ryan Moore

Analyst’s Verdict:
Soapy Aitken has created a taking impression in winning his first 2 starts, and can make it 3 from 3 with the prospect of plenty more improvement to come up in class. Steady Pace and Washington DC are also open to further progress and are high on the shortlist, while Ruby Notion represents last year’s winning US trainer Wesley Ward and can’t be ruled out with confidence.

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Proofed Selections

Our proofed results below shows our consistency throughout our time of trading……..our spreadsheet details our proofed betting selections and results for 2013 and 2014 before we decided to go to a paid service after we found other groups ‘ripping’ our selections….our 2015 flat selections to date are now included in the spreadsheet, just switch between the tabs at the bottom.

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