Royal Ascot 2015: Day 2
Day 1 of Royal Ascot gave our Premium subscribers a 4.5pts profit on an outlay of 4 pts with a nice 8/1 winner with BURATINO and a paying place with PEARL SECRET widely available at 16’s to 20’s in the morning.
We’ve got a runner for Premium members at Hamilton this afternoon…..PM us on our FaceBook page if you want that.
Tody we’re concentrating on just one race and posting some stats to consider for the Royal Hunt Cup…….plus a full Timeform guide to Day 2.
The high draw low draw on the straight course will be rage and we won’t know until after today’s significantly affected races……..just to say the low draw had it on the two races with significant field sizes yesterday?
Royal Ascot – Day 2 Wednesday
One of our favourite handicaps that we usually see some of our notebookers we have been following.
A large field of up to 30 runners charge down the 1 mile straight course with the chance of a nice EW return due to many surprise results over the years.
Open to 3 year olds + it is tended to be won by the middle 4 or 5 year old generation with only one 6 year old winning the last 16 years.
Draw is key, as the two packs tend to split and depending on how the track rides, a very high or very low draw is fancied.
Top weights have traditionally not performed well but form from the bigger or class handicap races does look as though it counts.
- Only four horses have carried more than 9st to victory in the last 19 years.
- 4 or 5 year olds have won 25 of the last 29 years……last yr was Field of Dream though!
- Horses over 10/1 have won 10 of the last 14 races.
- 13 of the last 16 winners had been placed first or second previously that season.
- 12 of the last 17 winners were drawn no more than 6 from the rails
We may be putting ourself up for a fall here, but everyone has been talking up importance of a high draw?
The last few seasons at Ascot have indeed backed up that statistic…….but looking at today’s significant results with big fields on the straight course……..those two races favoured the far side (low draw)
Either way, the draw suggests that you have to be drawn in the range of 6 from each rail so we will offer something from each side.
From those drawn high, William Buick has the ride on David O’Meara’s MONDIALISTE. He was a smart performer for Freddy Head in France and shaped well in the Lincoln on seasonal debut.
Even though that ground was good that day, he is proven on top of the ground surfaces and ran the classy Mooharib a good third here in a Listed over the trip back in April.
Brian Ellison has just hit some form and there would be no more popular winner than him as displayed at York on Saturday as Top Notch Tonto landed but BALTY BOYS looks to have too much weight to carry in this
Concentrating on those drawn low…….there doesn’t look a whole lot wrong with the rejuvenated Frankie Dettori on the favourite AYAAR.
He caught the eye here in this race last year when finishing well after hitting trouble in running and if the low draw has it will be thereabouts.
Lastly, we pump for an old favourite with BRONZE ANGEL……up until last season he appeared to want some cut but disproved that theory when winning last years Cambridgeshire. Louis Steward is a well capable calimer getting a 3lb allowance and positioned 5 from the inside rail.
MONDIALISTE 0.5pt EW – best priced 28/1 with SkyBet
AYAAR 0.5pt EW – 7/1 with Bet365
BRONZE ANGEL 0.5pt EW – best priced 20/1 with Betfred
Royal Ascot Day 1 Timeform
14.30 Jersey Stakes (Group 3) (1) 7f
130 1. IVAWOOD Richard Hannon Richard Hughes
130 4. BOSSY GUEST Mick Channon Charles Bishop
126 15. DEVONSHIRE W. McCreery William Buick
Analyst’s Verdict: Bossy Guest met a bit of trouble before running on into fourth in the 2000 Guineas and, at likely odds, might represent a bit of value to turn the tables on Ivawood, who was just a ½ length ahead of him in third on that occasion. Dutch Connection also ran at Newmarket and the way he travelled for a long way suggests he may be seen in a better light back over 7f.
15.05 Queen Mary Stakes (Group 2) (1) 5f
114p 3. BESHARAH William Haggas Pat Cosgrave
113p 10. EASTON ANGEL Michael Dods Paul Mulrennan
109p 4. BRUISED ORANGE Wesley A. Ward Frankie Dettori
Analyst’s Verdict: Hopefully stall 1 won’t be too much of a concern for Easton Angel, as she has plenty going for her otherwise, and is taken to maintain her unbeaten record. Besharah looks an obvious danger, having also won both her starts to date and proven herself at Ascot in the process, while US raiders Bruised Orange and Acapulco, Mark Johnston’s pair Rah Rah and Delizia, and Silk Bow are other likely types.
15.40 Duke of Cambridge Stakes (Group 2) (1) 1m
130 1. INTEGRAL Sir Michael Stoute Ryan Moore
128 8. RIZEENA Clive Brittain William Buick
127+ 5. EURO CHARLINE Marco Botti Frankie Dettori
Analyst’s Verdict: Last year’s winner Integral went on to capture a brace of Group 1s last season, and through several pieces of form, holds the aces despite having to concede weight all round. Euro Charline, who escapes a penalty for her Grade 1 success at Arlington, may well be able to reverse last year’s Coronation Stakes form with Rizeena and fill the forecast spot.
16.20 Prince of Wales’s Stakes (Group 1) (1) 1¼m
143p 5. FREE EAGLE D. K. Weld Pat Smullen
141 9. THE GREY GATSBY Kevin Ryan Jamie Spencer
141 3. CRITERION David Andrew Hayes Chad Schofield
Analyst’s Verdict: The fact Free Eagle has managed to show high-class form at such an early stage in his career marks him down as a top prospect and he can make a winning return to action. The Grey Gatsby hasn’t been quite at the top of his game so far this term but cheekpieces might just give him an edge and he can provide the main threat ahead of Cannock Chase.
17.00 Royal Hunt Cup (Heritage Handicap) (2) 1m
129 18. AYAAR Luca Cumani Frankie Dettori
128p 28. YOU’RE FIRED K. R. Burke Graham Lee
127p 15. GM HOPKINS John Gosden Ryan Moore
Analyst’s Verdict: Last year’s Silver Cambridgeshire winner Gm Hopkins has another major handicap in him, and was arguably unlucky when just failing behind Spark Plug at Newbury last time, so he could well be the answer. Spring-Cup winner Ayaar is just about the pick of the weights, but is rather a hostage to fortune tactically from stall 1, so American Hope is feared most providing he’s ridden with more restraint.
17.35 Sandringham Handicap (Listed) (1) 1m
127p 3. ALWAYS SMILE Saeed bin Suroor James Doyle
120 2. JELLICLE BALL John Gosden Ryan Moore
118 5. REALTRA Richard Fahey Tony Hamilton
Analyst’s Verdict: Godolphin’s unbeaten Always Smile is the clear pick of the weights with her Doncaster form having been franked since and she is the most likely winner. Pack Together shaped as if needing the run when fading in a York listed event on her reappearance and the Queen’s filly can reward each-way punters. The other Royal runner Touchline also needs considering for a stable which has won the race twice.
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