Royal Ascot Day 2
It’s Royal Ascot Day 2 yesterday as we attempt to kick off our festival series with another winner.
Yesterday we had just one selection in AHTOUG who gave us a great run and finished just a neck down in fifth place with 4 places paying at 16/1.
We went against one of our previous winner in the race and SOLE POWER duly landed the odds at 5/1, some of you have emailed telling us they were on it – well done those who stuck with him.
Richard Hughes gave him a perfect ride and it was an impressive run from the 7 year old who quickened up impressively.
Today’s feature race has 4 of our ‘notebookers’ going head to head
Royal Ascot – Day 2 Wednesday
(17.00) The Royal Hunt Cup (Handicap) (1m)
A large field of up to 30 runners charge down the 1 mile straight course with the chance of a nice EW return due to many surprise results over the years.
Open to 3 year olds + it is tended to be won by the middle 4 or 5 year old generation with only one 6 year old winning the last 16 years.
Draw is key, as the two packs tend to split and depending on how the track rides, a very high or very low draw is fancied.
Top weights have traditionally not performed well but form from the bigger or class handicap races does look as though it counts.
Statistics…..
- Only three horses have carried more than 9st to victory in the last 18 years.
- 4 or 5 year olds have won 15 of the last 17 years.
- Horses over 10/1 have won 9 of the last 13 races.
- 13 of the last 16 winners had been placed first or second previously that season.
- 12 of the last 17 winners were drawn no more than 6 from the rails
Suggested Bets….
We’ve got 4 potential runners, Niceofyoutotellme has done most of his winning at 10f and has something to proveat this trip but did look quite encouraging when tried over 9f last time out.
Ocean Tempest is 1 from 1 over C&D, 3 from 9 on the going and a 33{70aeb3532cb26dbe277d25ea128ebb74de84b9bd22e1583b0eb1b73768e061f6} strike rate at the trip. Good all round solid figure and drawn at the extremes we wait to see which side of the track is favoured. A high draw looked favoured yesterday in the 5f sprint, However, carrying 10st, the stats say NO?
Fort Bastion is drawn at the opposite side and agian that will prove interesting as to which side is favoured. No course experience but 2 from 6 at the trip and 1 from 5 on the going, could well give a good account of himself for Ruth Carr.
Short Squeeze lacks a run which is a concern though won his handicaps with last season and why he’s a carry over notebooker. If he wins here he should be a serious threat in Group races this season
Looking at the overall stats, if we’re looking at something to give our notebookers a run for their money…..SEA SHANTY looks to have the best overall profile and Richard Hughes looked like a man on a mission yesterday.
Although penalised for a narrow weekend victory at Sandown, Richard Hughes still prefers this to Trumpet Major. Drawn well if that side of the course goes well he looks a great each way price 18/1 with PaddyPower
Our notebookers are…..
SHORT SQUEEZE…….16/1 with PaddyPower
FORT BASTION…….33/1 with Betfair
NICEOFYOUTOTELLME………20/1 with BetButler
OCEAN TEMPEST…….25/1 with SeanieMac
Some other key Royal Ascot 10 year trends for you stato’s….
- all 2 year old winners had finished in the top 6 last time out
- Richard Hannon’s Group 1 runners at 8/1 or shorter have finished: 11221121
- Aiden O’Brien Irish Bred runners in the 2yo Group races at Royal Ascot are 0 from 16 and include 10 beaten horses at 8/1 or under
- Only one 3yo has managed to win an all aged handicap at Royal Ascot since 2003
- Ryan Moore has never ridden a winner over 5f at Royal Ascot (29 losers since 2003)
- All 33 horses that Frankie Dettori has ridden over 5 furlongs have been beaten
- Every winner of the Coventry Stakes won last time out and the last 8 winners were all unbeaten
- Only 1 of the 8 horses sent off at 5/2 or shorter for a Royal Ascot handicap has managed to win
- Luca Cumani has had 32 consecutive losing handicap runners
- James Fanshawe’s runners in the Royal Hunt Cup Handicap have finished: 3124318
- Horses that were ridden by 5lb or 7lb claimers in the 3yo handicaps at Royal Ascot since 2003 have finished unplaced.
- All Richard Hannon’s runners that weren’t ridden by Richard Hughes lost
Got an opinion on this story, who are YOU backing??…….
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