Royal Ascot Friday
It’s Royal Ascot Friday racing after a disappointing day yesterday with our selections…..some of you contacted us saying they used the long losing run stats to find the Dettori winner in the first after we said he hadn’t had a 5f winner in 33 rides! Who says stats aren’t there to be backed against LOL!!
If we can take any comfort it was from the fact that we identified the races up to 7f are being favoured by a high draw.
The 7f Britannia was typical and we did highlight the chances of Bow Creek (2nd at 25/1) etc whilst advising Bilimbi in the morning at 12/1 which was heavily backed into 7/1 favourite, that gave us a slight profit.
We also got 8/1 about Windshear in the last…..again backed into 4/1 jt favourite and another EW profit.
Today we have highlighted our notebookers on the bet slip above but will concentrate on our featured 7f race and again stress the importance of a high draw?
This race is for three year olds and upwards and is one of the ‘lower’ grade races on the card but still a handicap of interest to us.
It’s a Class 2 event where favourites have an abysmal record.
Since the race was added to the festival in 2002, all eleven favourites have been beaten….perhaps the odds of one winning is worth a consideration by the law of averages?
7 furlongs tends to be something of a specialist trip and many a horse has tried to step up from 6f or down from the mile – it is best to stay with a proven 7f winner.
Again watch for clues for the draw from the first two days winners to see if a rail or stands draw is favoured, it looks like the high numbers on the stands side are the ones to be on?
Proven Ascot form looks key with last year’s winner second in the big-field handicap for lady riders on King George Day the previous season.
The 2012 winner finished fifth in the Royal Hunt Cup the previous season and the 2011 winner was second in the Victoria Cup.
Trainer records have little relevance with the race being in its infancy but John Dunlop has had three horses placed in the races run.
Sir Michael Stoute has only saddled three runners, all three of which started in the first two in betting and none of which finished in the first ten.
James Fanshawe’s record here make his runners interesting and he won the race in 20014 with Unscrupulous.
- 10 of the 12 winners have started double figures in the betting.
- No favourites have won the race since it began in 2002.
- Only one 3 year old has ever won the race.
- Only three winners have carried over 9st to victory.
7f is a specialist trip as we mentioned yesterday…..and some proven distance winners with a high draw are:
Bronze Angel, Secret Art, Intransigent, Horsted Keynes, Mezzotint and Tamayuz Star.
If we rule Intansigent and Horsted Keynes out based on the over 9-5st rule, then we have just 4 to consider for our best EW shout?
Mezzotint has had two runs on soft going which should be ignored and could spring a big priced surprise for Joseph O´Brien on this faster ground and a best priced EW of 40/1 with BetVictor
Tamayuz Star has switched from Richard Hannon’s yard and has decent form at 6 and 7f when the ground is running fast as today. He has had form in Class 2 race back in 2012 but this is a step back up in class here but another with a shout at a monster 66/1 with BetVictor
Secret Art was uninspiring last time out when 6th of 9, 6l behind Ishikawa (8-0) at Sandown 1m hcp 0-95 (3) sft in May. However, previously won on the AWT at Kempton and has a class 3 win at Sandown to his name and another fancied here at a best EW 22/1 with BetVictor
Bronze Angel was sent off favourite last time out when not given too hard a ride when beaten 5th of 11, 4l behind Chil The Kite (9-6) at Newbury 7f hcp 0-105 (2) gf in May. Is heavily fancied for today but still to prove himself on real top of the ground and a best EW 22/1 with BetVictor
Some other key Royal Ascot 10 year trends for you stato’s….
- all 2 year old winners had finished in the top 6 last time out
- Richard Hannon’s Group 1 runners at 8/1 or shorter have finished: 11221121
- Aiden O’Brien Irish Bred runners in the 2yo Group races at Royal Ascot are 0 from 16 and include 10 beaten horses at 8/1 or under
- Only one 3yo has managed to win an all aged handicap at Royal Ascot since 2003
- Ryan Moore has never ridden a winner over 5f at Royal Ascot (29 losers since 2003)
- All 33 horses that Frankie Dettori has ridden over 5 furlongs have been beaten (GONE!!!)
- Every winner of the Coventry Stakes won last time out and the last 8 winners were all unbeaten
- Only 1 of the 8 horses sent off at 5/2 or shorter for a Royal Ascot handicap has managed to win
- Luca Cumani has had 32 consecutive losing handicap runners
- James Fanshawe’s runners in the Royal Hunt Cup Handicap have finished: 3124318
- Horses that were ridden by 5lb or 7lb claimers in the 3yo handicaps at Royal Ascot since 2003 have finished unplaced.
- All Richard Hannon’s runners that weren’t ridden by Richard Hughes lost
Got an opinion on this story, who are YOU backing??…….