Royal Ascot: Ladies Day 2015
Day 2 of Royal Ascot gave us a 3pt loss on our Royal Hunt Cup selections,today we concentrate on the Ascot Gold Cup and the Britannia Stakes Handicap and posting some statistics to consider……plus a full Timeform guide to Ladies Day.
As we said yesterday with the draw it looks as though the low numbers Far side) have it and we’ll bear that in mind with our featured Britannia Stakes selection.
Looking at that Royal Hunt Cup race there were a couple of exceptional performances in defeat. Roger Charlton’s Temptress was drawn 19 and still managed to get across to the far side and would have won in another couple of strides.
We also mentioned Brian Ellison was hitting a bit of form – we thought Balty Boys had too much weight for this but he was the stands side race winner. American Hope was another who showed improved form and all three will be worth consideration dependent on the placement next time out.
Royal Ascot – Day 3 Thursday
Ascot 16.20 The Ascot Gold Cup 2m 4f
We’ve been pushing the chances of this one on the website so we will not deviate from that line.
The Irish have won seven of the last nine Gold Cups, predominantly due to the efforts of Aidan O’Brien with Dermot Weld landing with Rite of Passage in 2010.
Weld’s Forgotten Rules extended his unbeaten start under a penalty in the Group 3 Vintage Crop Stakes at Navan last month and he looks as though he will get this extended 20f looks like the one who they have all to beat?
However, we look to for at least some ‘wipes your face’ each way value and that comes in the shape of MIZZOU who only made his racecourse debut last June, winning his next three starts………and rounding the season off with a close third in a listed race at this track.
By Galileo out of St Leger fifth Moments of Joy, herself out of a half-sister to Gold Cup winner Classic Cliché, MIZZOU holds good claims of staying the Gold Cup distance and remains capable of even better form, while his attitude and versatility regards ground (winner on soft and firm) are other positives.
Luca Cumani obviously has a lot of faith in him, saying all winter that he was his Gold Cup horse. The Sagaro is always a decent contest and they went a decent pace from the off here which obviously suited him.
Cumani had expressed reservations about the four-year-old’s ability to show his best up Ascot’s short home straight, but he made light work of the Sagaro as he powered clear under William Buick on his first try at two miles to break the course record by one hundreth of a second.
His Sagaro win was franked when the runner-up Vent de Force easily won the Group 3 Henry II Stakes at Sandown in late-May. Vent de Force is another colt who’s still young enough to have more to offer.
However, Vent de Force was beaten an easy two lengths by our charge in the Sagaro and it’s doubtful that the extra four furlongs here will help him turn the tables here.
Simenon shaped well in a first-time hood when fifth in the Henry II on his first outing for ten months and it wouldn’t be too big a surprise to see him step forward enough to reach the frame, remembering that he was beaten just a neck by Estimate in 2013.
He could yet be the ride of Ryan Moore which would be no bad recommendation?
Brown Panther is as genuine as they come, with Michael Owen’s charge winning the Dubai Gold Cup earlier in the year and a close second to Snow Sky in the Yorkshire Cup.
Tac de Boistron looked all over the winner in the Group 3 Ormonde Stakes on heavy ground at Chester only to be overhauled late on by Clever Cookie who followed that up in the listed Grand Cup at York under a penalty.
Overseas raiders come in the shape of Bathyrhon from France and Mark Johnston trainedAlex My Boy out of Germany……..the former holds the better form and is proven at this trip.
Suggested Bet……
MIZZOU at a best priced 1.0pt EW at 5/1 with SkyBet
17.00 Britannia Stakes 1m straight
Following our musings of yesterday and today’s results we still believe the low numbers have it, or take a very smart move from one on the near side to get into that split?
- Only two of the last thirteen winners have carried over 9 stone
- a decent race for favourites with 5 of the last 16 wining
- 17 of the last 24 winners were in the top 6 in the betting forecast
- again draw is key, 9 of the last 14 winners have been drawn either very high or very low.
Paul Cole’s ROTHERWICK has had the misfortune to try and give weight to Jack Hobbs on seasonal re-appearance and was comfortably beaten but staying on at the finish.
He was a smart juvenile winning three times and is back down to his winning distance…..well drawn in 8…..could go well at a big price
Another of note drawn low could be John Gosden’s MALAF. He scored easily last time out in the head gear. Only three races to date and two of those on the all weather, we’ll have to see how good he is on the turf.
From those drawn higher, Mark Johnston saddles RESONANT who was seen to good effect losing his maiden tag at Newmarket and backed that up the following week at Goodwood. Today’s drop back to 8f should improve his chances of an each-way place slot.
Bets……
ROTHERWICK 0.5pt EW – best priced 25/1 with SkyBet
MALAF 0.25pt EW – 20/1 with Bet365
RESONANT 0.5pt EW – best priced 25/1 with Betfred
Royal Ascot Day 1 Timeform
2.30 Norfolk Stakes (Group 2) (1) 5f
Timeform Top Rated:
124p 5. KING OF ROOKS Richard Hannon Frankie Dettori
122p 6. LOG OUT ISLAND Richard Hannon William Buick
106 11. WATERLOO BRIDGE Aidan O’Brien Ryan Moore
Analyst’s Verdict:
King of Rooks was clearly seen to good advantage in the National Stakes at Sandown, but he was still mightily impressive, and that form received a boost in no uncertain terms in the Coventry on Tuesday. Stablemate Log Out Island ran to a very high figure on debut at Ascot and is feared most in a race lacking strength in depth.
3.05 Tercentenary Stakes (Group 3) (1) 1¼m
Timeform Top Rated:
127P 13. TIME TEST Roger Charlton Frankie Dettori
125 1. MAFTOOL Saeed bin Suroor James Doyle
124p 14. BOCCA BACIATA Mrs J. Harrington F. M. Berry
Analyst’s Verdict:
Time Test really caught the eye when taking a Newbury handicap on his return last month, and has the potential to achieve much more after only 4 career starts. He can make a successful step up to pattern company. Bocca Baciata is feared most after her sound effort in the Irish 1000 Guineas, while Peacock has been in fine form this season and can go well, also.
3.40 Ribblesdale Stakes (Group 2) (1) 1½m
Timeform Top Rated:
129p 8. PLEASCACH J. S. Bolger Kevin Manning
119p 2. CURVY David Wachman Ryan Moore
117p 6. PAMONA Luca Cumani Andrea Atzeni
Analyst’s Verdict:
Pleascach can boast Classic-winning form having landed the Irish 1000 Guineas last month, and given she escapes a penalty for that, has lots in her favour, especially with the increased emphasis on stamina expected to suit. Curvy and Pamona are the main threats on form, though once-raced Gretchen is a fascinating contender.
4.20 Gold Cup (Group 1) (1) 2½m
Timeform Top Rated:
137p 3. FORGOTTEN RULES D. K. Weld Pat Smullen
136 7. TAC DE BOISTRON Marco Botti Martin Harley
130 1. BATHYRHON Mme Pia Brandt Maxime Guyon
Analyst’s Verdict:
Mizzou continued his progression when an excellent winner of the Sagaro here on his return in April, relishing the step up to 2m, and can take his place at the top table now with the promise of even better to come at this trip. Forgotten Rules has ground concerns, but is the obvious danger if lining up, while Henry II Stakes winner Vent de Force is highly-respected, too.
5.00 Britannia Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (2) 1m
Timeform Top Rated:
128p 7. SAHAAFY B. W. Hills Dane O’Neill
127 28. RESONANT Mark Johnston Silvestre De Sousa
126p 25. BARTEL Ed Vaughan Craig A. Williams
Analyst’s Verdict:
It was hard not to be impressed by the manner in which Sahaafy demolished a Newmarket field last time and he can continue on a sharp upward curve and make light of an 11 lb rise. Paul Hanagan prefers the other Hamdan Al Maktoum runner Mutarakez, who won a traditionally strong trial at Haydock last month, while the Queen’s Capel Path also looks sure to do better stepped back up to 1m.
5.35 King George V Stakes (Handicap) (2) 1½m
Timeform Top Rated:
119p 5. KING BOLETE Luca Cumani Frankie Dettori
117p 11. TAPER TANTRUM Michael Bell Jamie Spencer
116p 6. SPACE AGE Charlie Appleby William Buick
Analyst’s Verdict:
King Bolete looked a handicapper to keep firmly on side when scoring in good style at Newbury last month, and with the 1f longer trip fine, he gets the nod to continue on an upward curve. Naturally there are plenty of dangers, headed by Dissolution, Taper Tantrum and Scottish
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