Royal Ascot Ladies Day
It’s Royal Ascot Ladies Day and Her Majesty The Queen will be hoping her horse ESTIMATE repeats the Gold Cup success of last year.
Yesterday we had just one EW selection in SEA SHANTY and Richard Hughes duly obliged a place at 14/1 after we had advised 18/1 on the morning exchanges for a good profit on the day.
Looking at the straight 5f to 1 mile races it looks like the high numbers are having the advantage so that will be reflected with todays’ selections…..however, they do look to be trying to even things up with a watering session yesterday
As an added bonus, you download a full Timeform guide….HERE
Another of our big handicap races is The Britannia Stakes is run over the same Hunt Cup straight mile track and another 30 strong field.
It features some of the top yards’ three year olds so form is quite unexposed and a difficult call to pick.
The last three winners won a handicap on their previous start and in contrast to the previous nine runnings when beaten horses on their previous start came out on top.
Looking at the weights carried, just three of the last 24 winners have carried have carried over 9st and it also pays to overlook horses that failed to place in the first 4 last time out as only two winners since 1991 have been the exception to this.
Same considerations as above for the draw factor with high or low predominant depending on how the track runs.
Favourites have a poor record but again class seems to tell with any recent maiden winners performing badly as they seem to lack the experience of big fields
- Only two of the last thirteen winners have carried over 9 stone.
- Only two favourites have won in the last thirteen years.
- 9 of the last 14 winners have been drawn either very high or very low.
7f is a specialist trip and Mark Johnston has three runners, two who have won twice at the trip in Bow Creek and Crowdmania plus Ifwecan has won once and has also course and going form. All have the preferred high draw with stable jock Franny Norton opting for the last named and Ryan Moore booked for top weight Bow Creek. However, whilst we have high regard for all of these three, we go for BILIMBI for Willie Haggas. We’ll forget the beaten favourite last time out on the soft and concentrate on the good to firm showing at Musselburgh when winning easily. Andrea Atzeni gets the ride and is a best priced EW 12/1 with Bet365.
Today’s other selections……
Ascot 14.30.…..The Great War will take all the beating and will be popular on course, purely on name value. He has won two from two without coming off the bridle and will go off a short priced favourite. This will open the market up to some each way value about our notebook horse, MUKHMAL who ran well off a bad draw at Chester after a previous win at Musselburgh. Our selection is a best EW saver 6/1 with Betfred.
Ascot 15.45…..John Gosden has a good record and CRITERIA will probably be at the head of the field and attempt to make all. With a price of 25/1 with BetVictor this looks good EW value. Aiden O’Brien’s Bracelet is another to consider, who drops slightly in class for this at an EW value 12/1 with BetButler
Ascot 16.25…..The Ascot Gold Cup is not really ‘our boat’ and a race for the staying horses, however we need to give a view. The Queens horse, Estimate, will find it tougher than last year and favourite Leading Light is poor value so preference is for Michael Owen’s BROWN PANTHER who would be a popular winner on this World Cup qualifier day and an EW 8/1 with PaddyPower.
Ascot 17.00….(see featured race)
Ascot 17.35.….Two of our ‘notebookers’ go against each other in BLACK SCHNAPPS and ARAB DAWN. A lot will be expecting Personal Opinion to reverse form with Arab Dawn with a big swing in the weights and slight step up in trip. Black Schnapps will need to prove himself on this more top of the ground surface so we will leave our notebookers alone today. Preference is for WINDSHEAR who looked impressive when making a winning debut last term and has improved in handicaps this term, he clearly looks progressive and is another with EW value at 8/1 with Betfair
After our success at Chester last time out, we’ve been asked for one for today……well happy to oblige, but beware, the enemy of the successful placepot punter is non runners. This will throw you and thousands of other punters onto the favourite – just what you must avoid as dividends will be strictly reduced if all those non runners are winners regards placepots.
16.25…..BROWN PANTHER, LEADING LIGHT
Some other key Royal Ascot 10 year trends for you stato’s….
- all 2 year old winners had finished in the top 6 last time out
- Richard Hannon’s Group 1 runners at 8/1 or shorter have finished: 11221121
- Aiden O’Brien Irish Bred runners in the 2yo Group races at Royal Ascot are 0 from 16 and include 10 beaten horses at 8/1 or under
- Only one 3yo has managed to win an all aged handicap at Royal Ascot since 2003
- Ryan Moore has never ridden a winner over 5f at Royal Ascot (29 losers since 2003)
- All 33 horses that Frankie Dettori has ridden over 5 furlongs have been beaten
- Every winner of the Coventry Stakes won last time out and the last 8 winners were all unbeaten
- Only 1 of the 8 horses sent off at 5/2 or shorter for a Royal Ascot handicap has managed to win
- Luca Cumani has had 32 consecutive losing handicap runners
- James Fanshawe’s runners in the Royal Hunt Cup Handicap have finished: 3124318
- Horses that were ridden by 5lb or 7lb claimers in the 3yo handicaps at Royal Ascot since 2003 have finished unplaced.
- All Richard Hannon’s runners that weren’t ridden by Richard Hughes lost
Got an opinion on this story, who are YOU backing??…….