Royal Ascot trends 2014
Always Back Winners are back with our special Royal Ascot trends following the success from our Cheltenham, Aintree and Chester festivals.
When it comes to Flat racing glitz, most people think of Royal Ascot. It’s true British pageantry at its best, with tops ‘n’ tails and Her Majesty the Queen in attendance.
Champagne and strawberries on the lawns, Land of Hope & Glory being played in the Ascot gardens in the after race parties……
Combined with the incredible racing, it comes together to form one of Britain’s most iconic sporting pageants.
We’ve decided to feature one race per day for our regular stat pack feature and hopefully some of our notebookers will be performing well.
Obviously at this early stage, we haven’t got the full declarations and draws, so we’ll post selections daily, but these are the advanced statistics that can impact on the race outcome…..
Royal Ascot – Day 1 Tuesday
The second race on the card is the Kings Stand Stakes over 5 furlongs with runners from far afield internationally.
Being run on the opening day it allows horses to try and win the sprint double with the Diamond Jubilee Stakes run on the last day.
It’s a Group 1 race and part of the annual WWGSC (Worldwide Global Sprint Challenge), held in countries such as Japan, Singapore and Australia.
As you would expect for a competitive Group 1 sprint, pattern-race winners dominate which is no suprise with 17 of the last 25 winners having already won Group 1 or Group 2 events with 13 of the last 14 winners winning a Group race over the minimum trip of five furlongs.
Eight of the last 14 winners were also successful on their most recent and the last nine winners finished first or second last time out.
- 11 of the last 13 winners had won over 6 furlongs.
- No horse has won back to back since before the war.
- 8 out of the last 13 winners were trained overseas.
- 12 out of the last 13 winners had ran at least twice that season.
- 11 out of the last 13 winners had won a Group race already.
- Favourites have only won once in the last thirteen years
- However, 8 from the last 10 were priced 8/1 or less.
- Of the last 10 races only one three year old has won
- Fillies/mares have won five of the last 20 runnings which is a fantastic strike rate.
Shea Shea is the obvious choice and has proven himself at this trip in the last couple of years. He was unlucky to be over hauled by Sole Power last year he can go close this time.
The latter is also one for the each way places if the ground is riding on the firm side. However we always look for value an AHTOUG has a good C&D record and has performed well out in Dubai and one to consider for the each way bets and a best EW 14/1 with Bet Victor
Royal Ascot – Day 2 Wednesday
One of our favourite handicaps that we usually see some of our notebookers we have been following.
A large field of up to 30 runners charge down the 1 mile straight course with the chance of a nice EW return due to many surprise results over the years.
Open to 3 year olds + it is tended to be won by the middle 4 or 5 year old generation with only one 6 year old winning the last 16 years.
Draw is key, as the two packs tend to split and depending on how the track rides, a very high or very low draw is fancied.
Top weights have traditionally not performed well but form from the bigger or class handicap races does look as though it counts.
- Only three horses have carried more than 9st to victory in the last 18 years.
- 4 or 5 year olds have won 15 of the last 17 years.
- Horses over 10/1 have won 9 of the last 13 races.
- 13 of the last 16 winners had been placed first or second previously that season.
- 12 of the last 17 winners were drawn no more than 6 from the rails
We’ve got 5 potential runners at this early stage…..we’ll give a view on the day…
SHORT SQUEEZE…….16/1 with PaddyPower
FARRAAJ………14/1 with BetButler
FORT BASTION…….33/1 with Betfair
NICEOFYOUTOTELLME………20/1 with BetButler
OCEAN TEMPEST…….25/1 with SeanieMac
Royal Ascot – Day 3 Thursday
Another of our big handicap races is The Britannia Stakes is run over the same Hunt Cup straight mile track and another 30 strong field.
It features some of the top yards’ three year olds so form is quite unexposed and a difficult call to pick.
The last three winners won a handicap on their previous start and in contrast to the previous nine runnings when beaten horses on their previous start came out on top.
Looking at the weights carried, just three of the last 24 winners have carried have carried over 9st and it also pays to overlook horses that failed to place in the first 4 last time out as only two winners since 1991 have been the exception to this.
Same considerations as above for the draw factor with high or low predominant depending on how the track runs.
Favourites have a poor record but again class seems to tell with any recent maiden winners performing badly as they seem to lack the experience of big fields
- Only two of the last thirteen winners have carried over 9 stone.
- Only two favourites have won in the last thirteen years.
- 9 of the last 14 winners have been drawn either very high or very low.
…..we’ll give a view on the day…
Royal Ascot – Day 4 Friday
This race is for three year olds and upwards and is one of the ‘lower’ grade races on the card but still a handicap of interest to us.
It’s a Class 2 event which will see some of our ‘notebookers’ clash and one where favourites have an abysmal record.
Since the race was added to the festival in 2002, all eleven favourites have been beaten….perhaps the odds of one winning is worth a consideration by the law of averages?
7 furlongs tends to be something of a specialist trip and many a horse has tried to step up from 6f or down from the mile – it is best to stay with a proven 7f winner.
Again watch for clues for the draw from the first two days winners to see if a rail or stands draw is favoured?
Proven Ascot form looks key with last year’s winner second in the big-field handicap for lady riders on King George Day the previous season.
The 2012 winner finished fifth in the Royal Hunt Cup the previous season and the 2011 winner was second in the Victoria Cup.
Trainer records have little relevance with the race being in its infancy but John Dunlop has had three horses placed in the races run.
Sir Michael Stoute has only saddled three runners, all three of which started in the first two in betting and none of which finished in the first ten.
James Fanshawe’s record here make his runners interesting and he won the race in 20014 with Unscrupulous.
- 10 of the 12 winners have started double figures in the betting.
- No favourites have won the race since it began in 2002.
- Only one 3 year old has ever won the race.
- Only three winners have carried over 9st to victory.
…..we’ll give a view on the day…
Some other key Royal Ascot 10 year trends for you stato’s….
- all 2 year old winners had finished in the top 6 last time out
- Richard Hannon’s Group 1 runners at 8/1 or shorter have finished: 11221121
- Aiden O’Brien Irish Bred runners in the 2yo Group races at Royal Ascot are 0 from 16 and include 10 beaten horses at 8/1 or under
- Only one 3yo has managed to win an all aged handicap at Royal Ascot since 2003
- Ryan Moore has never ridden a winner over 5f at Royal Ascot (29 losers since 2003)
- All 33 horses that Frankie Dettori has ridden over 5 furlongs have been beaten
- Every winner of the Coventry Stakes won last time out and the last 8 winners were all unbeaten
- Only 1 of the 8 horses sent off at 5/2 or shorter for a Royal Ascot handicap has managed to win
- Luca Cumani has had 32 consecutive losing handicap runners
- James Fanshawe’s runners in the Royal Hunt Cup Handicap have finished: 3124318
- Horses that were ridden by 5lb or 7lb claimers in the 3yo handicaps at Royal Ascot since 2003 have finished unplaced.
- All Richard Hannon’s runners that weren’t ridden by Richard Hughes lost
Got an opinion on this story, who are YOU backing??…….