Saturday Newsletter – 16th February 2019

Saturday Newsletter – 16th February

 

Saturday sees the principal card being Ascots Chase Meeting – there’s great review of the full card plus the Grand National Trial at Haydock if you click HERE. There’s a further meet at Wincanton to back that up.

At Haydock, Manwell & and The Paddy Pie look closely matched in the (14.25) at wipes yer face prices, however we have an alternative for members in that one below.

There’s Timeform for the Ascot meeting below and we’ll be back with a follow up on Sunday morning around 10.00am.

 

For those on the £1k to £10k challenge it’s currently a 35% win/place strike rate…..our bank is now £723.79 and stakes are now £9.05 EW

 

Anyone wishing to contact us direct, please use the email address alwaysbackwinners2018@gmail.com or at feedback@ always-back-winners.com……any FREE SERVICE MEMBERS looking to receive the latest premium service selections and join the next £1k to £10k quest.……just follow the UPGRADE link.

 

BOL (Best Of Luck!)

ABW Team

Here’s today’s free Timeform and the assist for the Ascot card from the ‘speedmeisters’…..click on the highlighted link to take you through to your Betfair account……

12.30 Thames Materials Novices’ Hurdle (2) 2m3f58y

Timeform Top Rated:
145p 3. I CAN’T EXPLAIN Nicky Henderson Nico de Boinville
139p 4. RUSSIAN HAWK Colin Tizzard Robbie Power
138P 2. DEISE ABA Philip Hobbs Richard Johnson

Analyst’s Verdict:
Deise Aba looked a very good prospect when accounting for a host of next-time-out winners on debut at Chepstow in November, merely needing to be shaken up to assert on the run-in. He has scope for plenty of improvement and is fancied to come out on top. I Can’t Explain and Russian Hawk are similarly open to improvement and feared, in that order.

1.00 Ascot Supports Berkshire Community Foundation Handicap Hurdle (2) 2m3f58y

Timeform Top Rated:
160 4. AIR HORSE ONE Harry Fry Kieron Edgar (3)
158p 11. TIGHT CALL Tim Vaughan Alan Johns
157 1. BALLYANDY Nigel Twiston-Davies Sam Twiston-Davies

Analyst’s Verdict:
This is a step up for Tight Call in terms of the quality and competitiveness of handicap but he travelled like a progressive, well-treated type last time in a race that’s beginning to look like strong form, so it might be worth taking a chance on Tim Vaughan’s unexposed representative in a wide-open race. The classy Ballyandy is a big player along with the hat-trick seeking Cloudy Glen.

1.35 Sodexo Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) (1) 2m7f180y

Timeform Top Rated:
167+ 4. TOP VILLE BEN Philip Kirby Sean Quinlan
164p 3. NOW MCGINTY Stuart Edmunds Richard Johnson
164p 5. YALLTARI Venetia Williams Charlie Deutsch

Analyst’s Verdict:
Top Ville Ben has created a very good impression since switched to fences, a feature of which has been his bold jumping. Philip Kirby’s charge is taken to maintain his unbeaten record in this sphere, perhaps at the chief expense of impressive Newbury handicap winner Mister Malarky. Providing his ealy exit at Exeter hasn’t dented his confidence, Yalltari should also have a part to play.

2.10 Keltbray Swinley Chase (Limited Handicap) (Listed) (1) 2m7f180y

Timeform Top Rated:
172 2. BLACK CORTON Paul Nicholls Bryony Frost
171p 8. REIKERS ISLAND Philip Hobbs Richard Johnson
170x 6. CALIPTO Venetia Williams Charlie Deutsch

Analyst’s Verdict:
The progressive Reikers Island was a beaten favourite at Newbury 7 weeks ago but the return to a right-handed track is in his favour this time and he remains unexposed. Classy-duo Black Corton and Coneygree are feared most.

2.45 Betfair Denman Chase (Grade 2) (1) 2m7f180y

Timeform Top Rated:
185 1. CLAN DES OBEAUX Paul Nicholls Harry Cobden
176 4. TERREFORT Nicky Henderson Nico de Boinville
161 2. BALLYHILL Nigel Twiston-Davies Sam Twiston-Davies

Analyst’s Verdict:
It’s hard to look beyond Clan des Obeaux, who produced a top-class effort when landing the King George on Boxing Day. This 7-y-o probably has even more to offer and can cement his claims for next month’s Cheltenham Gold Cup by landing this race, which his yard has won 8 times since 2000. Terrefort is clear next best ahead of Ballyhill and Thomas Patrick, who appears to have lost his way.

3.20 Betfair Hurdle (Handicap) (Grade 3) (1) 1m7f152y

Timeform Top Rated:
156 13. MAGIC DANCER Kerry Lee Richard Patrick (3)
155p 3. GETAWAY TRUMP Paul Nicholls Harry Cobden
154 2. MONT DES AVALOIRS Paul Nicholls Lorcan Williams (5)

Analyst’s Verdict:
Getaway Trump took another step forward when second to the highly-exciting Champ in the Challow last time, cruising into contention in a steadily-run contest, and he can continue the fine record of novices in this with victory, the drop back in trip and the prospect of a strong pace big positives. Al Dancer and Didtheyleaveuoutto head up the dangers.

3.55 Betfair Ascot Chase (Grade 1) (1) 2m5f8y

Timeform Top Rated:
182p 6. WAITING PATIENTLY Ruth Jefferson Brian Hughes
181 4. FOX NORTON Colin Tizzard Robbie Power
180 5. POLITOLOGUE Paul Nicholls Sam Twiston-Davies

Analyst’s Verdict:
Politologue gave 6 lb to Charbel when accounting for that rival in November and, with that form franked since, he edges a narrow verdict to come out on top having found his stamina stretched in the King George since. Waiting Patiently failed to complete through no fault of his own in that very race and is entitled to consideration with the prospect of more to come. Cyrname completes the shortlist.

4.30 Best Racing On Racing TV Handicap Hurdle (Qualifier) (3) 2m7f118y

Timeform Top Rated:
136 11. EXITAS Phil Middleton Mr Luca Morgan (7)
135 7. WORTHY FARM Paul Nicholls Harry Cobden
134 12. FAITHFUL MOUNT Ian Williams Edward Austin (7)

Analyst’s Verdict:
This is highly competitive. Daydream Aulmes is on a roll and could still be a step ahead of the handicapper. Worthy Farm failed to fire when favourite for a competitive Cheltenham handicap last time but this lightly raced 6-y-o remains with plenty of potential. Lygon Rock and the unexposed Another Emotion are also much respected in first-time headgear.

5.00 British EBF Mares’ Standard Open National Hunt Flat (Qualifier) (4) 1m7f152y

Timeform Top Rated:
116 12. EYES RIGHT Alan King Wayne Hutchinson
115 1. SILVER FOREVER Paul Nicholls Harry Cobden
109 2. SUBWAY SURF Kim Bailey David Bass

Analyst’s Verdict:
Silver Forever could only match her debut-winning form when third in listed company at Huntingdon in December, but back down in class, she may well get back on the up. Eyes Right and Lunar Baby both step up in trip and head the opposition.