Saturday Newsletter – 6th April 2019

Saturday Newsletter – 6th April 2019

 

Grand National Day with supporting Timeform below for the ‘pin the tail’ race where bookies face a £200m battering if Tiger Roll follows up on last years’ win. That would complete the first back to back since Red Rum in the 1974 but in truth there’s no value to be had about him for EW purposes. On top of that he’s carrying 6lb more than last year where he just won by a neck in a thrilling finish?

We have thrown a couple of EW darts with some shrapnel for today’s big race:

Colin Tizzard’s ULTRAGOLD is well versed around here and long term members will remember him  back in our ‘25 NH to follow’ three years back – fast forward and this fellow has solid form around this track with figures; 1-1-1-3 in the likes of the Topham & Becher Chases. If there’s any carnage in front he’s still likely to be in there at the finish and with majority going 6 paying places there’s a monster 66/1 about him.

Our second poke goes with our ex-gaffers charge LAKE VIEW LAD. TJH comes in here with three runners with Warriors Tale a bit out of sorts, and despite Vintage Clouds getting in on a nice low weight. The former has the most progressive profile and arrives in good nick following an excellent race in the Ultima at Cheltenham behind Vintage Clouds. The trip is an unknown but his jumping has been so sound with just 12 fencing runs and 11 placed efforts, carrying the same weight as that Cheltenham race, that the best 18/1 appeals and is our second value bet.

Best of luck with those arrows 🙂

We’ll be back on Monday as the flat begins in earnest – last night MOLLY MAI landed the placed money for some small returns at Wolves with our 4th bet of the season, whilst from the intro notes, KUPA RIVER landed for Roger Fell at 3’s.for any of you looking at the occasional snippets outside of the official member bets.

 

 

For those on the £1k to £10k challenge…..our opening bank is now £1018.63 and stakes are now £12.73 EW unless otherwise stated

 

Anyone wishing to contact us direct, please use the email address alwaysbackwinners2018@gmail.com or at feedback@ always-back-winners.com……any FREE SERVICE MEMBERS looking to receive the latest premium service selections and join the next £1k to £10k quest.……just follow the UPGRADE link.

 

BOL (Best Of Luck!)

ABW Team

Here’s today’s free Timeform and the assist for the Aintree card from the ‘speedmeisters’…..click on the highlighted link to take you through to your Betfair account……

1.45 Gaskells Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) (1) 3m149y

Timeform Top Rated
164 12. POKER PLAY David Pipe Tom Scudamore
163p 1. SIRE DU BERLAIS Gordon Elliott Jonjo O’Neill Jr. (3)
162 13. FLEMCARA Emma Lavelle Aidan Coleman

Analyst’s Verdict:
Sire du Berlais came out on top in a hotly-contested Pertemps Final at the Cheltenham Festival, and given there’s more to come from him over staying trips, he’s worth keeping onside with an excellent value conditional now taking over in the saddle. Poker Play bagged a big prize at Uttoxeter 3 weeks ago and must enter calculations, along with Coolanly and the likeable Theclockisticking.

2.25 Betway Mersey Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) (1) 2½m

Timeform Top Rated
162p 1. ANGELS BREATH Nicky Henderson Nico de Boinville
161 2. BREWIN’UPASTORM Olly Murphy Richard Johnson
157p 6. ONE FOR ROSIE Nigel Twiston-Davies Sam Twiston-Davies

Analyst’s Verdict:
One For Rosie ran a blinder off top weight in the EBF Final at Sandown, and looks well worth a crack at this level with the prospect of more to come. Brewin’upastorm sets the standard on his fourth in the Ballymore at Cheltenham, while Angels Breath could easily bounce back. Umbrigado remains unexposed and isn’t one to be underestimated, either.

3.00 Doom Bar Maghull Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) (1) 1m7f176y

Timeform Top Rated
168 7. US AND THEM Joseph Patrick O’Brien J. J. Slevin
167 4. KNOCKNANUSS Gary Moore Jamie Moore
166 5. LALOR Kayley Woollacott Richard Johnson

Analyst’s Verdict:
Us And Them had no chance with Duc Des Genievres in the Arkle, particularly as he was asked to come from a long way back in a race where things didn’t really go his way, so he looks capable of gaining some reward for his consistency in the absence of that rival. Clondaw Castle, who shaped well back in fifth that day, is the main threat ahead of the less-exposed Destrier.

3.40 Ryanair Stayers Hurdle (Liverpool) (Grade 1) (1) 3m149y

Timeform Top Rated
183 14. APPLE’S JADE Gordon Elliott J. W. Kennedy
176 7. SAM SPINNER Jedd O’Keeffe Joe Colliver
168 10. UNOWHATIMEANHARRY Harry Fry Barry Geraghty

Analyst’s Verdict:
Apple’s Jade wasn’t herself in the Champion Hurdle but her record suggests she’s unlikely to stay down for long and she stands out on form if recapturing the level of her three widemargin Grade 1 wins this season. Sam Spinner was very much back in his game when second in the Stayers’ at Cheltenham and is a clear next best. Last year’s runnerup Wholestone has each-way claims again.

Timeform Top Rated
163p 4. DEBECE Tim Vaughan Alan Johns
162 15. THEATRE TERRITORY Warren Greatrex Mr Sam Waley-Cohen (3)
161+ 10. POLYDORA Tom Lacey Tom Scudamore

Analyst’s Verdict: 
Debece will find this a lot more competitive than the 2 smallfield events he’s won in this sphere but he remains with potential as a chaser and has gone well on both previous appearances at this meeting. Fellow novices Mister Malarky and Kildisart head the dangers having acquitted themselves well in Grade 1 company at the Cheltenham Festival.

5.15 Randox Health Grand National Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (1) 4¼m74y

Timeform Top Rated
182 13. RATHVINDEN W. P. Mullins R. Walsh
181 3. TIGER ROLL Gordon Elliott Davy Russell
180 1. ANIBALE FLY A. J. Martin Barry Geraghty

Analyst’s Verdict:
Gordon Elliott runs a record-breaking 11 and his Jury Duty gets the verdict. He was as good as ever when making a successful return at Down Royal and seems set for a huge run. Tiger Roll will be one of the shortest-priced favourites ever as he bids for back-to-back wins and is sure to be thereabouts with a clear round. Lake View Lad and Walk In The Mill are the pick of the home contingent.

6.20 Pinsent Masons Handicap Hurdle (Conditional Jockeys’ And Amateur Riders’) (2) 2m103y

Timeform Top Rated
153 7. FLASHING GLANCE Tom Lacey Stan Sheppard (3)
152 12. WEST TO THE BRIDGE Dan Skelton William Marshall (7)
151 18. SUBCONTINENT Venetia Williams Hugh Nugent (5)

Analyst’s Verdict:
Flashing Glance was value for a bit extra when scoring at Ludlow last time so could still be ahead of his mark after a 4 lb rise. He gets the vote but there are any number of dangers in a very competitive finale, headed by West To The Bridge, Lord Yeats and Whatmore, whose strong-travelling style suggests he could be well suited to the demands of this race.

 

p commonly referred to as a small ‘p’; and the the horse is likely to improve
P commonly referred to as a large ‘P’; and the horse is capable of much better
+ the horse is possibly better than rated
? the rating is suspect or (used alone) the horse is out of form or cannot be assessed with confidence
§ the squiggle’ indicates the horse is unreliable (for temperamental or other reasons)
§§ the ‘double squiggle’ the horse is so unsatisfactory as to be not worth a rating
x a poor jumper