Saturday Premier League Preview
Saturday Premier League Preview kicks off with the prime and feature match at Stamford Bridge, so will Chelsea continue their dominance?
Chelsea v Arsenal: 12.45 KO
Chelsea have won this fixture in three of the past four seasons and another win here could almost eliminate one of their rivals for the title.
Since Jose Mourinho took back over Chelsea have been superb at home with 13 wins from 15 matches this season, and further back they are unbeaten in 24 home games.
Moreover, they’ve already hosted eight of the other teams currently in the top half this season and beaten them all.
Arsenal in contrast have been thrashed at Liverpool and Man City this term, and in the previous four seasons they lost 10 of 12 trips to top-four finishers.
The Gunners did record a good win at Spurs last weekend but they might be facing Chelsea at a bad time after the Blues’ shock defeat last weekend; since 2010/11 Chelsea have won 14 of 19 home games following a defeat with just one reverse.
Overall Chelsea look clear favourites and at 2.0 represent a bit of value.
Both teams have generally been very solid defensively this season and it would be a surprise to see a goal-fest here, even if Arsenal have had two shocking defensive performances at Liverpool and Man City this season.
Chelsea put four past Spurs in the second half of their last home game but in their current 24 game unbeaten streak at home they’ve scored exactly twice on 14 occasions and three or more goals just six times.
Half the 24 matches have had 2-3 goals as have five of their last eight home games against top-six teams, which have included six wins by exactly one goal.
- Chelsea are unbeaten in 24 home games in the Premier League and have won all 8 home matches this season against teams currently in the top half
- Since 2009/10 Arsenal have lost 12 of 14 trips to top-four finishers and current top-four teams this season, including 10 defeats where they were trailing at half-time
- 9 of Chelsea’s last 10 home matches against top-half teams have had at least 3 goals
- Chelsea have won 2-1 in five of their last eight home matches against top-six teams and have also beaten Arsenal by the same score in 2 of their last 3 meetings
Best Bet: Correct Score Chelsea 2-1 @ 9.50
Chelsea to win by one is a great price at 3.95, while over 2.5 goals can be backed at 2.0.
Cardiff v Liverpool
- Since 2010/11 Liverpool have lost 7 of their 10 trips to promoted teams while 8 have had at least 3 goals
- 13 of Liverpool’s last 16 away matches have had at least 3 goals, with 10 having 4 or more
- Liverpool have scored before half-time in an incredible 15 of their last 16 away matches
- 8 of Cardiff’s last 12 home matches have had at least 3 goals
Best Bet: Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.25
Everton v Swansea
- Swansea have lost their last 10 away matches against top-half teams, and trailed at half-time in 7 of the defeats
- Everton have lost just 1 of their last 23 home games and have won 7 of the last 8
- 11 of Everton’s 18 home games against bottom-half teams since the start of last season have had at least 3 goals, with 15 having at least 1 goal before half-time
- 7 of Swansea’s last 8 away matches have had a first-half goal and 5 of the last 7 have seen more goals in the first half than the second
Best Bet: First Half To Be Most Scoring Half @ 2.95
Hull v WBA
- Hull have lost 7 of their last 10 matches including 4 of 5 at home
- West Brom have conceded in 18 of their last 19 matches
- 7 of West Brom’s last 10 away matches have had at least 3 goals with half having 4 or more
- 6 of Hull’s 7 home matches against bottom-half teams this season have had fewer than 3 goals
- West Brom have lost just 2 of their 6 trips to bottom-half sides this term, drawing 3 times
Man City v Fulham
- Man City have won 16 of their last 17 home matches against bottom-six teams
- Fulham’s last 9 defeats have all been by more than 1 goal
- Fulham have lost 0-2 in half their last 10 trips to top-six teams
- Man City average 3.0 goals per game in the 20 home matches Sergio Aguero has started since the beginning of last season but just 2.0 goals per game in the 12 he’s missed
Best Bet: Man City (-2.0) Asian Handicap @ 1.70
Newcastle v Crystal Palace
- 11 of Crystal Palace’s last 13 away matches have had fewer than 3 goals as they’ve scored just 5 goals
- Newcastle have won 3 of 4 home matches this season against the current bottom-six but they’ve all been won by just 1 goal
- 5 of Palace’s last 6 away matches have been goalless at half-time
- 12 of Palace’s 17 defeats this season have been either 1-0 or 2-0
Best Bet: Newcastle Win By 1 Goal @ 3.65
Norwich v Sunderland
- Norwich have won this fixture 2-1 in each of the past 2 seasons
- Norwich’s last 8 home matches have been level at half-time with the last 6 all goalless
- 9 of Norwich’s last 14 home games have had fewer than 2 goals
- 4 of Sunderland’s last 9 matches (home or away) against bottom-half teams have finished goalless, while 8 of the last 10 have had fewer than 3 goals
Best Bet: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.75
West Ham v Man Utd
- West Ham have lost 9 of their last 10 league meetings with Man Utd, including 7 defeats by more than 1 goal
- West Ham have conceded exactly 3 times in 5 of their 6 home games this season against the current top 9
- Man Utd have won 16 of 21 trips to bottom-half teams since the start of last season, including 7 of 9 this term
- 9 of West Ham’s last 10 home games against bottom-half teams have had at least 3 goals
Best Bet: Over 3.5 Goals @ 1.90
Spurs v Southampton
- Spurs have lost just 1 home match since 2009/10 having lost their previous home game (W9-D4-L1)
- 7 of Spurs’ last 11 home matches against teams placed 5th-11th have had fewer than 3 goals
- Southampton have won only 1 of 15 trips to top-half teams since the start of last season (W1-D5-L9)
- 6 of Southampton’s last 8 trips to top-half teams have had fewer than 3 goals
- Spurs have won all 3 of their matches against Southampton since the start of last season
Best Bet: Spurs home win @ 2.15
Aston Villa v Stoke
- This fixture has been drawn in 4 of the past 5 seasons
- Aston Villa have drawn the first half in 8 of their last 11 home matches
- Stoke have drawn 7 of 12 trips to middle-third sides since the start of last season (W0-D7-L5)
- Stoke have lost 0-1 in 10 of their 34 away matches since the start of last season
Best Bet: Half Time Draw @ 2.15
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So what about a suggested bet……here’s our best considerations for your multiples or even a YANKEE…….
Chelsea v Arsenal – OVER 2.5 goals @ 19/20
Liverpool v Cardiff City – OVER 2.5 goals @ 5/6
WHU v Man United – OVER 3.5 goals @ 8/5
Charlton v Burnley – UNDER 2.5 goals @ 5/6
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