SkyBet Supreme Novices Hurdle – Cheltenham Day 1
13.30 SKYBET SUPREME NOVICE HURDLE – 2mile 110yds, Grade 1, 4yo+
The pipeopener and is there anything to take on MIN?
If we believe the hype….the answer is a big NO….but at best 2/1 it’s an easy oppose from us as usual……..although anyone without a Betfair account can take advantage of their ‘get 9/1 or money back if you lose offer’ via the ad above.
Willie Mullins bids for a four-timer in this Grade One, following Champagne Fever, Vautour and Douvan so we may get let with egg on our faces if he wins by the proverbial ‘country mile’, but we think we can find something at double digit that pays as well as a MIN WIN!
Let’s check out some of the stats for this one……..
- All of the last 5 winners won LTO and
- 17 of the last 19 winners won LTO
- Of the last 21 winners all but four had run during the previous 45 days
- Irish charges have won 14 of the last 24 renewals
- Nicky Henderson has not won a Supreme in 24 years
- Only one Supreme winner has been off the course for more than 68 days
- Nine of the last 12 favourites to be sent off at 2/1 or shorter in the Supreme were beaten
- Four of the last 13 winners finished in the first five in last season’s Champion Bumper
- All of the last 5 winners were aged 5 or 6yo
- Front running prominent charges do well
Favourite MIN is unbeaten in both his hurdle races to date but yet to be tested and looks one to take on from the outset. Nicky Henderson hasn’t had a winner in this in 24 years and comes to the party with Altior who unbeaten in four starts.
Looking at the ‘Champion Bumper’ stat, last years winner Moon Racer is scheduled to make his hurdling debut while third that day Wait For Me comes in on back to back wins.
Both Supasundae and Silver Concorde appreciate top of the ground and could challenge for places.
The former of those two representing Henry de Bromhead beat Yanworth in a bumper and ran a seven length sixth in the Champion Bumper here last year and a fourth to Nichols Canyon in last year’s Grade 1 Deloitte Novices’ Hurdle.
He will act better on this firmer going and has obvious place claims.
One who was heavily put forward by you guys when we ran the Super Yankee suggestions bet way back in January was TOMBSTONE who has performed well in Ireland in decent looking races.
Despite a couple of overturns in his last two outings he looks an exciting hurdler and odds of around 14’s look appealing here and just gets the nod in the value stakes from Supersundae but we will have a nibble about both in the opener.
TOMBSTONE 1pt EW @ 14/1 with BetVictor in the SkyBet Supreme Novices
SUPERSUNDAE 0.5pt EW at 14/1 with bet365 in the SkyBet Supreme Novices
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