The Flat is Back!!!
The Flat is Back and as we come out of National Hunt and look for a little settled flat form, we’ve come up with our finalised Lincoln Handicap view for today’s opening day of the turf season at Doncaster….
Our last big race preview was the the Champion Hurdle Preview where we gave some great EW value with ARCTIC FIRE finishing 2nd at an advised 14/1…..
We’ll kick off with a look at the chances of last years ‘notebookers’, with just 4 being declared entries for the opening day feature in….LINCOLN, GABRIAL, MOOHARIB & OCEAN TEMPEST.
Our serious betting on the flat doesn’t really kick in until mid May but with a ‘no runner no bet’ on offer from the majors there’s some opportunities for some small each way nibbles for a sporting interest in this seasonal opening cavalry charge.
No longer counting towards the Jockey’s Championship, the Lincoln remains the symbolic start of the Flat turf season with 22 runners contesting Doncaster’s straight mile…..
Though it’s too early for us as a serious betting proposition, it’s always something we get asked to call, and with non-stop all-weather events plus horses wintering in Dubai…..it becomes even more of a puzzle to call.
Mick Channon’s LINCOLN is a 3 year old that we’re hoping trains on. We hoped we’d found an early season notebooker last season with a sound run in a Class 2 at Newbury way back in April behind John Gosden’s Muwaary.
Raced at 6 and 7f, he gave us little return until storming a couple of races at Doncaster and Chester to finish the season. His last run being particularly impressive around Chester’s tight turning track where he was smartly away and made all and is a best priced 25/1 with SkyBet for the race.
Last year’s race winner, OCEAN TEMPEST was one who went straight on the early season radar and gave us some great early season returns with wins at Ascot, Windsor and Chester.
He’s definitely one who goes on the likely surface and this seasons preparation has mirrored last with John Ryan giving him a few pipeopeners at Meydan over 8 – 10f.
He will be obviously one who has this race in his sights and could be just good enough for a place at a best 28/1 with BetVictor.
Our next ‘notebooker’ comes from an early season trainer in Richard Fahey, whose charges always seem to be well forward at this time of year, and he enters up GABRIAL who has 14 wins/places from just 27 runs and so is one for the each-way consideration.
He spent an extended winter at Meydan last year before coming back running at extended trips that led for a tilt at the Ebor. He just didn’t appear to see out those trips but absolutely hacked up as he wanted on a seasonal bow out at Leicester over this one mile trip.
He has demonstrated form from fresh with a Doncaster Mile on his first run in 2013 and another who looks a great each-way bet at a best priced 14/1 with SkyBet.
Looking to the market leaders, favourite Mange All is a best priced 6/1 across the board. William Haggas has obviously had this race in his thoughts stating following an Ascot win last July,
“I originally planned to go to York for the mile handicap there, maybe we will look at Doncaster next March”.
He’s another like GABRIAL who has struggled beyond the 1 mile trip but should be prominent here but at those cramped odds he’s not for us.
Finally, MOOHAARIB has always been rated a horse of some potential by connections and this course and distance winner is 4lb better off for the three lengths he was beaten by the afore mentioned Mange All at Ascot last July.
He has improved since, as has the winner, but had an eye-catching run at Deauville in December. Back on grass today, this lightly raced sort could make up into a Group horse this year and going on any surface there should be a big run from him today or in the near future of a rating of 100.
Back 0.50pt EW GABRIAL at 14/1 with SkyBet (in from 25’s from our Preview)
Back 0.50pt EW MOORAABIB at 14/1 with BetVictor
Back 0.25pt EW LINCOLN at 25/1 with SkyBet
Back 0.25pt EW OCEAN TEMPEST at 28/1 with BetVictor
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