Trading in running
We’ve been asked the question regarding ‘trading in running’ as a methodology to profits from backing horses and studying how a horse runs a race will help this.
Horses are pack animals driven by their herding instinct and why they exhibit different in-play characteristics. Some horses are happy to lead whilst others are followers who never get their neck in front and others can produce late bursts to get to the head of the pack.
Reading form will allow us to know how a horse ‘likes’ to run a race but generally, if a horse gets off to a good start, its price will almost certainly shorten in-running. Being in front will allow the jockey to hold the rail and steer the horse as required.
It also means, especially in jumps racing, that it can avoid any problems with any runners in front of it. Horses can also be held up; they may prefer to run in the main group of horses.
If that is the case the horse will be ‘produced’ for a win later in the race. At that point the jockey will ‘encourage’ the horse, usually with the whip, to run on and pull away from the pack.
This does present problems though, as other horses may ‘box in’ the horse preventing the jockey from finding a gap to run through and out into the lead before the winning post. Therefore held up horses tend to drift in runningas the market discounts the possibility of problems.
To understand how a horse is likely to be run you can look at its previous form which is available from plenty of resources, but what you are mainly looking for is notes of how they ran in-running.
Read the form notes, does the horse like to race prominently, or just off the pace or even a ‘hold up’ horse that likes to come with a late run?
A horse that is likely to lead or race prominent will find it’s odds tending to shorten slightly during the race and on the other hand, a ‘held up’ horse will tend to drift in running.
How to profit…..
Trading is all about exiting a trade after ‘laying at low odds’ and ‘backing at higher odds’.
If you’re looking at the prominently racing horses then look to take an early price and lay through the race as the price will shorten through the progression of the race.
Alternatively, for the hold up horses, look to lay at the shortest odds possible before the off – then back and ‘trade-out’ at a higher price during the race as its odds lengthens, before it makes its late run?
Of course anything can happen in a race to change this, but if we know that something is more likely to happen then it is quite probable that we can profit from it, especially with a decent strategy.
If you want to try out any strategies, why not download a free trial of Bet Angel from Betfair which you can run for a couple of weeks in practice mode which means you don’t have to risk any money when you are trying new strategies out.
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