Vincent O’Brien County Handicap Hurdle – Cheltenham Day 4
14.10 Vincent O’Brien County Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3)
A big field and a race which has thrown up several big price winners down the years so let’s look for a double-digit figure winner in this one. Willie Mullins has saddled three of the last seven winners so expect him to have a good chance here – he comes three armed with Ruby on an 18/1 shot in Dicosimo.
Let’s check the stats and trends for this one….
- First or second season hurdlers have won 11 from last 12
- Last 5 winners last ran in the previous 70 days
- 10 of last 12 were aged 5 or 6
- Last 5 winners had run 4-12 times over hurdles
- Last 5 winners carried 10-06 – 11-04 and rated 134 – 139 and only 2 in last 57 years have carried more than 11-02!!!
- Last 5 winners last run in a handicap hurdle
SUPERB STORY has previous here when an excellent run to finish second behind Old Guard in the Greatwood Hurdle in November. He probably only lost that day by running up the centre, with the winner taking the stands rail in a fast run race despite a dawdling early pace.
His lack of a run since is a slight concern, though that probably reflects on the bottomless going we have had. With just 6 races in the tank he has moved to a new level since last term and could still be well in and proven on the course is obvious bonus.
STARCHITECT ran a cracker at Newbury in the Betfair Hurdle LTO in a very fast run race. He lost out in the finish to Agrapart when clouting the last, though that one looked to have a bit in hand anyway.
However he showed battling qualities to get his head down on the run in and pull something in, so up just6lb, he is another like the previous with just seven hurdle races and another with previous form here with his fourth in the Fred Winter Hurdle at last year’s Festival.