Whose sprinters hit the ground running in Spring?
An early look at turf in the absence of any horse racing.
Sprinters are always on our radar and let’s see if we can glean any advantages from looking at those trainers & jockeys who fair well in the early sprint handicaps.
March, April & May – all handicaps, over 10 runs with at least a 10% win/40% place rate
As we can see the usual suspects are there in the shape of Eric Alston and Kevin Ryan with the former hitting an Impact Value (IV) of 3.06. In layman’s terms that means his charges are just over 3 times more likely to win with the norm being 1.0. It’s a figure we tend to look for when making our selections and more meaningful than the Average/Expected (A/E), that can be skewed by a big priced winner.
As we have said many times, our long term profits are based on hitting win rates of just over 10% and a place rate of 40% to generate our long term profit objectives and you can see the above table is filtered on that basis.
You can also check out the ROI from the above, with the likes of Mick Channon racking up a near 20% win/50% place rate but a loss on ROI – indicating his prices are shorter than what we are looking for.
The above table is based on 10 qualifiers and it’s worth filtering by 5 runners just to see if there are any other trainers who very selectively target sprinters?
The 3 of the top 4 of the pile are worth noting who can be termed ‘up and coming’ – the exception is Jedd who has been around a while and he scores lower on the ROI as well. More noteworthy is Phil Makin who has recently taken up his trainer’s license to good effect.
Being sprint races, there’s less time to come off the pace and we generally tend to target those who race at the head of affairs or prominently. If we further filter the above table by their charges who fit that criteria we obtain the following table.
As you can see comparing the two preceding tables, Ralph Beckett’s 3 winners have all come from front running sorts bumping his IV from 2.75 to over 6.
Kevin Ryan had 66 runners overall with 12 winners, however by backing his front running sorts you could reduce that outlay to just 25 selections with 8 winners. Likewise, his place rate similarly increases for his front runners and bumps his IV from 2.34 to 4.17.
Likewise can be seen from Mark Walford’s charges by eliminating his hold up types the likelihood of a winner increases. If we further dip into Walford’s figure, below – It’s Andrew Mullen who has done his winning.
Picking up on the last chart, we’ve always been of the opinion that certain jockeys excel at different trips and let’s see who hit the ground running in March April & May? Again, it’s filtered by those who like to race up with the pace.
Amazingly it looks very profitable to be following SDS who has yielded over a 50% ROI for those charges and Danny Tudhope another who ran 2nd in the jockeys’ championship last term with another very positive ROI. Theodore Ladd was one we had high hopes of last term after being the top AW apprentice but has rather stalled of late. Hopefully, he picks up quickly if Mick Appleby has a good start?
Andrew Mullen continues his excellent profile aside his Mark Walford angle with an overall ROI in excess of 100 and an IV = 2.88
Let’s switch back to 5 qualifiers to see if there are any up and comers?
Possibly no surprise to see young Harry Bentley in there with his association with Ralph Beckett who featured earlier. Likewise Poppy Bridgewater, Jane Elliot & Toby Eley have faired well from there ‘limited opportunities’.
The initial criteria was for March, April & May – but let’s see which jockey’s show best returns on the front runners throughout the year?
Again there looks some ROI’s worthy of targeting with the Greatrix’s topping the pile on the limited runs. However, note the reduction in Harry Bentley’s ROI. Despite hitting a near 30% win rate/50% place rate, obviously prices got cramped after his early-season successes from the previous chart?
However, there are some solid yardsticks in there on the northern circuit with the likes of; David Allan, Jason Hart, Kevin Stott & Danny Tudhope having decent IV’s on front running sorts.
Hopefully, this will have provided some food for thought? we’ll be saving these angles and further looking at some Trainer/Jockey Combo’s that hopefully compound that Impact Value. Likewise, we could further section that out with draw-bias included by courses?
Tomorrow, we’ll look at the intermediate 7f sprint trip to see if we can identify any profitable angles, in the interim, if there’s any questions or further angles you are interested in, please post in the forum comments below and we’ll pop it on the ‘angles shopping list’.
Today’s member’s notes are below….
Have a good day and BOL with any of your betting selections today if you’re looking at the NH?.
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BOL (Best Of Luck!)
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