Monday Newsletter – 11th March 2019

Monday Newsletter – 11th March 2019

 

Taunton, Plumpton & Stratford with Timeform for the latter. In the opener at Taunton (14.30) Sandy Boy is for the shorter priced lumpers who was going very well when falling two out in December. For some reason he drifted out to 25’s in that one but certainly would have placed at worst but for that tumble? He’s down a grade for this one but nothing of any EW value.

At Plumpton (15.20), Longhousesignorina was an intro notes winner for Venetia Williams on the same day we had ‘wavegate’ winner Hijram. The mare was a good staying on 2nd when next appearing and looks like she’ll stay the extra today despite being upped again. It’s another for lumpers being on at 4’s and down in grade for the in-form trainer.

Possibly the only one of any EW appeal is one we backed LTO in Thedrinkymeister who was beaten by Ascot De Bruyere on first appearance this term. He won well on first run since switching from Kim Bailey’s yard at Market Rasen last April. He’s on around 15/2 in an eight runner nad is dropped slightly in trip following a poor showning at Sandow LTO – he may just need it a bit heavier – cue ‘law of sod’ 🙂

Members notes are below……

 

 

For those on the £1k to £10k challenge it’s currently a 32% win/place strike rate…..our bank is now £555.98 and stakes are now £6.94 EW

 

Anyone wishing to contact us direct, please use the email address alwaysbackwinners2018@gmail.com or at feedback@ always-back-winners.com……any FREE SERVICE MEMBERS looking to receive the latest premium service selections and join the next £1k to £10k quest.……just follow the UPGRADE link.

 

BOL (Best Of Luck!)

ABW Team

Here’s today’s free Timeform and the assist for the Stratford card from the ‘speedmeisters’…..click on the highlighted link to take you through to your Betfair account……

 

2.10 Lengthen The Odds With BetVictor Juvenile Hurdle (3) 2¼m148y

Timeform Top Rated:
141p 10. RED FORCE ONE Paul Nicholls Harry Cobden
140 1. LEVER DU SOLEIL Gavin Patrick Cromwell James Bowen
129 5. HONORABLE Gary Moore Harry Skelton

Analyst’s Verdict:
Red Force One shaped well under a sympathetic ride on his hurdling bow at Kempton last month and can open his account here. Irish-raider Lever du Soleil looks the obvious danger, whilst Honorable also enters calculations.

2.40 Free Bet Every Race At Cheltenham BetVictor Chase (Novices’ Limited Handicap) (4) 2m213y

Timeform Top Rated:
131 5. LE CAPRICIEUX Gary Moore Sean Houlihan (3)
130 8. DON DES FOSSES Warren Greatrex Sean Bowen
129 3. PADDY’S POEM Nick Gifford James Davies

Analyst’s Verdict:
Le Capricieux showed improved form to open his account over fences, seeming to benefit from a change in tactics as much as anything else (made all), and is taken to follow up. Paddy’s Poem did well to win at Huntingdon 3 weeks ago and is next best ahead of Don Des Fosses.

3.10 David Cowgill Memorial Handicap Chase (3) 2¾m125y

Timeform Top Rated:
136p 3. SHOW ON THE ROAD Philip Hobbs Sean Houlihan (3)
133 5. CLONDAW WESTIE Lawney Hill Aidan Coleman
132§ 1. THEDRINKYMEISTER Henry Daly David Bass

Analyst’s Verdict:
Show On The Road remains with potential as a chaser and looks capable of winning off his current mark. Belle Empress is another who’s open to improvement and is next best ahead of Clondaw Westie.

3.40 Best Odds Guaranteed With BetVictor Handicap Hurdle (Qualifier) (3) 2m70y

Timeform Top Rated:
138 12. EKAYBURG David Pipe Tom Scudamore
137 9. VOLPONE JELOIS Chris Gordon Non Runner
136 1. RED TORNADO Chris Fairhurst Henry Brooke

Analyst’s Verdict:
While Ekayburg has failed to justify favouritism in a couple of novice hurdles on these shores, it will look significant if there’s confidence behind him in the betting on this handicap debut. Indeed, he’s been handed a potentially lenient opening mark and wind surgery/ first-time cheekpieces may both serve as triggers for improvement here. Red Tornado and Dino Velvet rate the main dangers.

4.10 BetVictor Horse Racing Multiples Cash Out Novices’ Hunters’ Chase (5) 2½m205y

Timeform Top Rated:
120 5. CYRIUS MORIVIERE Steve Barry Mr Philip York
116? 2. BLETCHLEY CASTLE Miss H. Brookshaw Mr Zac Baker
113 3. BRAVE JAQ R. D. Potter Mr Tommie M. O’Brien

Analyst’s Verdict:
Cyrius Moriviere lacks a recent run and this trip is on the limit of his stamina, but he’s a class above most of these on his peak form so is still the way to go. Bletchley Castle didn’t jump with any fluency at Taunton a fortnight ago but is a definite player if cutting out the errors.

4.40 Choose Your Horse With BetVictor’s Betfinder Maiden Open National Hunt Flat (5) (D.I) 2m70y

Timeform Top Rated:
115+ 6. STARSKY Paul Nicholls Harry Cobden
106 10. STIMULATING SONG Milton Harris Paddy Brennan
103 4. GET UP THEM STEPS John O’Shea Miss Brodie Hampson (5)

Analyst’s Verdict:
Starsky came up against a good one on debut back in November and is taken to go one better now for his very much in-form stable. Shang Tang still didn’t look the finished article when third at Exeter last time so could step up again, while Cavernous has been off a while but the fact he went off a short-priced favourite for his debut suggests he’s well regarded by the Ben Pauling team.

5.10 Choose Your Horse With BetVictor’s Betfinder Maiden Open National Hunt Flat (5) (D.II) 2m70y

Timeform Top Rated:
116 3. FULL TIME PARTY Rebecca Curtis Sean Bowen
107 2. FITZROY Olly Murphy Aidan Coleman
101 4. GOLDEN TAIPAN Fergal O’Brien Paddy Brennan

Analyst’s Verdict:
Full Time Party shaped well at Market Rasen last summer behind one who went on to add another 3 bumpers to his tally for Dan Skelton. Given time to mature, he could take the beating for a new yard. Skelton saddles an interesting rival in newcomer Prussia With Love. Now Is The Winter, second in a point 11 months ago, is another to consider.

 

Key  Top Rated: Indicates the highest rated runners in the race adjusted for the weight carried

p commonly referred to as a small ‘p’; and the the horse is likely to improve
P commonly referred to as a large ‘P’; and the horse is capable of much better
+ the horse is possibly better than rated
? the rating is suspect or (used alone) the horse is out of form or cannot be assessed with confidence
§ the squiggle’ indicates the horse is unreliable (for temperamental or other reasons)
§§ the ‘double squiggle’ the horse is so unsatisfactory as to be not worth a rating
x a poor jumper