Sunday Newsletter – 9th December 2018

Sunday – 9th December 2018

 

After a sticky start in November, Philip Hobbs ensured it was a ‘double bubble’ Saturday for us and our 4th winner of the week. Steely Addition came home with a similar well timed effort to that of earlier winner, Rebecca Menzies, Tomekevi who had a nice bit of drift out to 7’s after posting. Our third selection, Blottos ran like there was something amiss after taking the third fence and was eventually pulled up at Wetherby.

Back to today, there’s nothing really of interest…the Skelton’s took RED RISING to Carlisle on seasonal debut and he looks like one for the future now chasing in the (12.50) at Huntingdon. 3m should pose no problems but he has a bit to make up with some of these in terms of his previous hurdle rating and despite 6/1 on offer is only wipes yer face against a very strong looking Bags Groove in a race that has now gone a 7 runner and only 2 paying slots.

Eaton Miller is one we backed LTO and he goes in the (15.30) at double digit prices – he’s still a maiden after a near double handful of races, though does seem to be knocking at the door.

The most solid looking lumper looks to be Sea Story who also had a booking at Lingfield tomorrow and Fontwell on Tuesday. Kim Bailey makes a long round trip to Kelso (14.40). He’s a bumper winner who was a beaten favourite LTO with both trainer hand jock are in decent nick.

We’ll keep our powder dry today on the back of a decent week and be back with a look at Lingfield and Musselburgh at 8.00am in the morning.

 

For those on the £1k to £10k challenge….we’ve now over a 36% win/place strike rate with an ROI of nearly 25%…..our bank is now £1107.16 and current stakes are now £13.84 EW

 

Anyone wishing to contact us direct, please use the email address alwaysbackwinners2018@gmail.com or at feedback@ always-back-winners.com……any FREE SERVICE MEMBERS looking to receive the latest premium service selections and join the next £1k to £10k quest.……just follow the UPGRADE link.

 

BOL (Best Of Luck!)

ABW Team

Here’s today’s free Timeform and the assist for the Punchestown card from the ‘speedmeisters’…..click on the highlighted link to take you through to your Betfair account……

12.20 JOIN OUR 2019 MEMBERS CLUB FROM JUST €150 RATED NOVICE HURDLE 2m

Timeform Top Rated:
149p 1. DUE REWARD Henry de Bromhead Rachael Blackmore
148 5. COUNT SIMON Gordon Elliott Davy Russell
143p 3. BALLYNEETY Joseph O’Brien M. P. Walsh

Analyst’s Verdict:
BALLYNEETY looked a nice prospect when making a successful to his hurdles career at Gowran recently and, with improvement on the cards, he is taken to confirm that impression by following up here. With Count Simon starting to look a shade exposed and Minella Times likely to come into his own when faced with a stiffer test in due course, the latter’s stablemate Due Reward is the clear main danger.

12.55 PUNCHESTOWN RACECOURSE OF THE YEAR MAIDEN HURDLE 2m4f

Timeform Top Rated:
137p 13. SCHOOL BOY HOURS Noel Meade M. P. Walsh
128 6. CUNEO Henry de Bromhead Rachael Blackmore
126p 7. DIAMOND TURF Gordon Elliott Jack Kennedy

Analyst’s Verdict:
TORNADO FLYER looked potentially top draw in bumpers and could hardly be in better hands to take his career to the next level now embarking on a hurdling campaign. He’s a confident choice to make a winning start in this sphere despite the presence of a couple of above-average sorts from the Noel Meade yard in School Boy Hours and Dream Conti.

13.25 SHERRY FITZGERALD LETTINGS HANDICAP HURDLE 2m4f

Timeform Top Rated:
134 19. LILY TROTTER Eric McNamara C. P. McNamara
133 18. PARTY PLAYBOY Anthony Mullins D. J. Mullins
132 15. AR EAGLA NA HEAGLA Francis Casey Mr Conor Orr

Analyst’s Verdict:
AR EAGLA NA HEAGLA showed improved form to get off the mark at Gowran 2 weeks ago, easy to understand given that was just her second start in a handicap, and makes the most appeal. Party Playboy and Jake Peter head the dangers.

14.00 JOHN DURKAN MEMORIAL PUNCHESTOWN CHASE (Grade 1) 2m4f40y

Timeform Top Rated:
180 3. MIN Willie Mullins Ruby Walsh
177 1. BALKO DES FLOS Henry de Bromhead Rachael Blackmore
173 5. SHATTERED LOVE Gordon Elliott Jack Kennedy

Analyst’s Verdict:
MIN has been successful on each of his last 3 reappearances and has comfortably the best form in this field, so expect him to be incredibly tough to overhaul once he finds his rhythm in front. Balko Des Flos is the main threat on form and the likeable Shattered Love shouldn’t be ruled out.

14.30 GAIN SUPPORTING LAOIS GAA BEGINNERS CHASE 2m

Timeform Top Rated:
130+ 12. MITCHOUKA Gordon Elliott Jack Kennedy
124p 11. UISCE BEATHA Joseph O’Brien Niall Madden
122p 10. PORTMORE LOUGH John E. Kiely Denis O’Regan

Analyst’s Verdict:
While several of these are talented, GETABIRD is head and shoulders above the rest judged on his hurdling exploits last season. Furthermore, this former point winner looks a real chasing type and he’ll prove hard to beat if jumping proficiently. Moon Over Germany is entitled to need the run following a lengthy absence, which leaves Mitchouka and Articulum as the most viable each-way alternatives.

15.05 K CLUB HANDICAP CHASE 3m1f150y

Timeform Top Rated:
131p 6. GUIDED BY YOU Noel Meade Sean Flanagan
130 8. SE MO LAOCH Brian M. McMahon Mr D. O’Connor
129p 2. CRESUS DE GRISSAY Paul Nolan Mr S. F. O’Keeffe (7)

Analyst’s Verdict:
GUIDED BY YOU wasn’t seen to best effect at Cork 3 weeks ago and is worth another chance to build on his promising chase bow at Galway. Se Mo Laoch and Cresus de Grissay head the dangers.

15.40 OLD HOUSE, KILL (PRO/AM) I.N.H. FLAT 2m

Timeform Top Rated:
105p 8. SANTANA PLESSIS Gordon Elliott Mr J. J. Codd
99 2. CENOTICE Noel Meade Mr M. J. O’Hare (3)
98 1. BAILY THUNDER Mouse Morris Mr S. F. O’Keeffe (7)

Analyst’s Verdict:
Hard to oppose SANTANA PLESSIS, who was third in a 1-2-3 of good prospects from the Gordon Elliott yard in the Goffs Land Rover Bumper on debut here in April. Cenotice might be the danger.