Boxing Day Newsletter – 26th December 2018

Boxing Day Newsletter – 26th December 2018

 

Ho-Ho-Bloody Ho….. you couldn’t have scripted that, who would have had UBALTIQUE as a first fence faller ? ….aside from Joe H that is…..you know who you are ?
at least TRESNISH got us out of a hole with a just better than break even day on the weekend.

Back to today and a plethora of races to consider, no doubt everyone will have their eyes focussed on Kempton….many of you in an armchair following Christmas Day excesses and it would be rude not to comment on what promises to be a cracking King George. Being from ‘oop north’ we’d like nothing more with a winner from the region with Ruth Jefferson’s Waiting Patiently who indeed has since last outing – first crack at the 3m may prove a step to far and we’re drawn to POLITOGUE, who won on seasonal debut beating a good one on Min at Aintree. He’s another that goes at the 3m for the first time but his races on the soft over 2m 5f have been won well and we’d back him to be in there at the finish. He is well versed with the track and the best 11/2 offers a wipes yer face EW bet.

We’re off to Wetherby today and the focus on today’s member selections will be from there.

If you didn’t see the later post yesterday, just follow the highlighted text link to go back to the speedmeisters 16 page festive review.

 

For those on the new £1k to £10k, current stakes are now £11.50 EW and the bank stands at £919.84

Anyone wishing to contact us direct, please use the email address alwaysbackwinners2018@gmail.com or at feedback@ always-back-winners.com……any FREE SERVICE MEMBERS looking to receive the latest premium service selections and join the next £1k to £10k quest.……just follow the UPGRADE link.

 

BOL (Best Of Luck!)

ABW Team

12.50 32Red Casino Novices’ Hurdle (2) 2m 
Timeform Rating of previous winners: 148 161 175 163 160 (Avg 161)

Analyst’s Verdict:
Aside from their defeats in the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham in March, Didtheyleaveuoutto and The Big Bite are otherwise unbeaten. The latter has barely broken sweat in his 2 starts in this sphere but there’s more substance to the form of Didtheyleaveuoutto, who got the better of the re-opposing Thomas Darby at Ascot last month. Mister Fisher should build on his hurdles debut and is also feared.

Timeform Top Rated:
147p 2. THE BIG BITE Tom George Noel Fehily
146p 4. THOMAS DARBY Olly Murphy Richard Johnson
143p 1. DIDTHEYLEAVEUOUTTO Nick Gifford Barry Geraghty

1.20 32Red.com Chase (Novices’ Limited Handicap) (3) 2½m110y

Analyst’s Verdict:
Nicky Henderson fields two live contenders in Turtle Wars and Lough Derg Spirit. The latter was the best of these over hurdles and isn’t passed over lightly but his stablemate appeals as the type to make a better chaser and, if none the worse for his unfortunate experience on debut in this sphere at Sandown, Turtle Wars could be the answer. Envoye Special and Glen Forsa are others to consider.

Timeform Top Rated:
152p 5. LOUGH DERG SPIRIT Nicky Henderson Nico de Boinville
151p 7. ENVOYE SPECIAL Paul Nicholls Harry Cobden
149+ 11. AWAKE AT MIDNIGHT Philip Hobbs Richard Johnson

1.55 32Red Kauto Star Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) (1) 3m 
Timeform Rating of previous winners: 163 173 164 157 165 (Avg 164)

Analyst’s Verdict:
Santini was one of the best staying novice hurdlers around last season and barely put a foot wrong on chase debut at Newbury. Already favourite for the RSA at Cheltenham in March, the 6-y-o could go right to the top of the tree in this sphere and will prove hard to beat here. Topofthegame shaped well over an inadequate trip on his chase debut and is next best ahead of Bags Groove.

Timeform Top Rated:
168p 4. SANTINI Nicky Henderson Nico de Boinville
166 5. THE WORLDS END Tom George Gavin Sheehan
165 1. BAGS GROOVE Harry Fry Noel

2.30 Unibet Christmas Hurdle (Grade 1) (1) 2m 
Timeform Rating of previous winners: 178 180 164 170 167 (Avg 172)

Analyst’s Verdict:
Buveur d’Air produced one of the best hurdle performances of recent times when slamming Samcro in the Fighting Fifth and can replicate last year’s easy win in this race. Stablemate Verdana Blue is taken to fill the forecast spot.

Timeform Top Rated:
184 2. BUVEUR D’AIR Nicky Henderson Barry Geraghty
172+ 5. VERDANA BLUE Nicky Henderson Nico de Boinville
163+ 4. IF THE CAP FITS Harry Fry Noel Fehily

3.05 32Red King George Vi Chase (Grade 1) (1) 3m
Timeform Rating of previous winners: 182 179 192 185 172 (Avg 182)

Analyst’s Verdict:
Waiting Patiently took the step up to Grade 1 level in his stride at Ascot in February and is selected to make light of an absence (has good record fresh) and extend his unbeaten chase record to 7. Paul Nicholls has won this 9 times and Politologue could be a big threat if his stamina holds up in trip, while last year’s winner Might Bite is much better than he showed on his reappearance.

Timeform Top Rated:
183 6. NATIVE RIVER Colin Tizzard Richard Johnson
181 5. MIGHT BITE Nicky Henderson Nico de Boinville
180 1. BRISTOL DE MAI Nigel Twiston-Davies Daryl Jacob

3.40 32Red Download The App Handicap Hurdle (3) 2m5f

Analyst’s Verdict:
A tricky race with Divin Bere the selection. He struggled in a light campaign last season but recent efforts have been more encouraging and he should go well if proving his stamina over this new trip. Ballyandy is feared on his return to hurdling, with Colonial Dreams and Stowaway Magic others to consider.

Timeform Top Rated:
151 3. DIVIN BERE Paul Nicholls Harry Cobden
150 1. BALLYANDY Nigel Twiston-Davies Sam Twiston-Davies
149 12. CRYSTAL LAD Gary Moore Jonathan Burke

Today’s Bets……..

Good luck if you’re going with our 1.25% EW selections today….

Wetherby 14.45 – Chicoria

Wetherby 15.20 – Suggestion

 

(Current stakes are £11.50 EW for those backing the 1.25% EW on the £1k to £10k)

 

BOL (Best Of Luck!)

ABW Team