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Cheltenham Day 4 – 2019

Cheltenham Day 4 – 2019

 

We knocked around the places on Day 3 with some small bit of profit, 6pts staked and 7.75pts returned – lets look to get a tad more out of Gold Cup Day 🙂 We kick off with the SkyBet ‘freebie’ opener where we we one outside the paying slots with the 4th home yesterday, Ben Pauling’s charge Kildisart.

The opener is the (13.30) JCB Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1) where Joseph O’Brien trained Sir Erec heads the market as virtually an odds on shot. However, we’re going to side with his second string, GARDENS OF BABYLON despite having to find 6 lengths or so on his 2nd to his stable mate on their H2H LTO.

The former hasn’t been totally fluent on his last two runs but then again, neither has our selection. However, he has first time cheek-pieces today that should effect some improvement. The Leopardstown race they H2H saw the favourite able to dictate things from the front – but ours did get his head down once the pace was upped and kept on to the line. Today’s extra 1/2 furlong to travel…..and up the hill makes the near double digit about our selection look decent value with a best 9/1 on offer with SkyBet.

We’ve got 11 points staked for members below on Day 4 to bring the total to 30 pts on the week. Anyone missing the Festival Magazine from the speedmeisters can catch up on the final days reading with that great 32 pager…HERE

Trends and stats are within the members area and BOL with your Cheltenham picks today 🙂

 

Anyone wishing to contact us direct, please use the email address alwaysbackwinners2018@gmail.com or at feedback@ always-back-winners.com……any FREE SERVICE MEMBERS looking to receive the latest premium service selections and join the next £1k to £10k quest.……just follow the UPGRADE link.

 

BOL (Best Of Luck!)

ABW Team

Today’s Selections

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Here’s today’s free Timeform and the assist for the Cheltenham card from the ‘speedmeisters’…..click on the highlighted link to take you through to your Betfair account……

 

1.30 JCB Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1) (1) 2m179y

Timeform Top Rated 
167p 12. SIR EREC Joseph Patrick O’Brien M. P. Walsh
166 9. PIC D’ORHY Paul Nicholls Sam Twiston-Davies
164+ 5. GARDENS OF BABYLON Joseph Patrick O’Brien Barry Geraghty

Analyst’s Verdict: 
The fact that Sir Erec managed to finish placed in Group 2 company on just his fifth Flat start marks him down as out of the ordinary for the division and his easy Spring Juvenile Hurdle win (by 6 lengths from Gardens of Babylon) is the best form on offer. The Paul Nicholls trained pair Quel Destin and Pic d’Orhy have had contrasting preparations for this but both are interesting.

2.10 Randox Health County Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) (1) 2m179y

Timeform Top Rated 
165 4. MR ADJUDICATOR W. P. Mullins P. Townend
164 21. MONSIEUR LECOQ Mrs Jane Williams Lizzie Kelly (3)
163 5. CH’TIBELLO Dan Skelton Harry Skelton

Analyst’s Verdict:
The assessor didn’t have a lot to go on when allotting Crooks Peak’s opening mark and he took full advantage at Newbury a fortnight ago. Given he was value for extra and promises to be suited by this big-field environment, the follow up under a 5 lb penalty is a distinct possibility. Whiskey Sour was third in this a year ago and has been aimed at this, while Monsieur Lecoq is going the right way.

2.50 Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (Spa) (Grade 1) (1) 2m7f213y

Timeform Top Rated 
161p 13. LISNAGAR OSCAR Rebecca Curtis Sean Bowen
160p 6. COMMANDER OF FLEET Gordon Elliott J. W. Kennedy
159p 4. BIRCHDALE Nicky Henderson Barry Geraghty

Analyst’s Verdict: 
Traditionally a treacherous race for favourites and with that in mind it could pay to side with the experienced Dinons, who won here in October and who is easily excused his latest run when bidding for a 6-timer. Birchdale, Commander of Fleet and Dickie Diver are among the many others with bags of potential who should feature. Stoney Mountain is one to consider at a huge price.

3.30 Magners Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase (Grade 1) (1) 3¼m70y

Timeform Top Rated 
182 12. NATIVE RIVER Colin Tizzard Richard Johnson
181 5. CLAN DES OBEAUX Paul Nicholls Harry Cobden
180p 13. PRESENTING PERCY Patrick G. Kelly Davy Russell

Analyst’s Verdict:
Native River can become the first back-to-back winner since the legendary Best Mate. He showed great toughness when getting the better of Might Bite 12 months ago and looks ready to peak once more having not been seen in the best light in his 2 runs since. Presenting Percy, seeking his third straight Festival victory, looks the biggest danger ahead of the progressive Kemboy.

4.10 St. James’s Place Foxhunter Challenge Cup Open Hunters’ Chase (2) 3¼m70y

Timeform Top Rated 
146 4. CAID DU BERLAIS Mrs Rose Loxton Mr William Biddick
145x 10. HAYMOUNT T. Ellis Miss Gina Andrews
143+ 24. UCELLO CONTI Gordon Elliott Mr J. J. Codd

Analyst’s Verdict:
The way Hazel Hill travelled and jumped before readily clearing away from a competitive field at Warwick really sticks in the mind and this 11-yearold, who is actually not fully exposed, looks to have all the attributes to make a name for himself at the top level. Stand Up And Fight should be well respected based on connections and Ucello Conti can play a big part if jumping efficiently.

4.50 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Challenge Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (1) 2m62y

Timeform Top Rated 
169p 18. NOT ANOTHER MUDDLE Gary Moore Jamie Moore
166 19. BRELAN D’AS Paul Nicholls Bryony Frost
166 7. TREE OF LIBERTY Kerry Lee Richard Patrick (3)

Analyst’s Verdict: 
Plenty of exposed sorts here and the progressive Not Another Muddle could be the answer. His excellent jumping was a key feature of an impressive win at Sandown 4 weeks ago and he should get the race run to suit. Magic Saint and Whatswrongwithyou are also going the right way and they head the dangers.

5.30 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle (2) 2½m56y

Timeform Top Rated 
157 14. CARTWRIGHT Gordon Elliott Fergus Gregory
156 1. EARLY DOORS Joseph Patrick O’Brien Jonjo O’Neill Jr.
155 15. MOUNT MEWS Donald McCain Danny McMenamin

Analyst’s Verdict: 
Cartwright is in better heart than his form figures would suggest, and this prolific Flat stayer is unexposed over this sort of trip over hurdles. Stablemate Dallas des Pictons has been the subject of a big gamble in recent days and he’s clearly very progressive, but Cartwright looks the value play. Of the rest, Early Doors and Not That Fuisse seem sure to go well.

p commonly referred to as a small ‘p’; and the the horse is likely to improve
P commonly referred to as a large ‘P’; and the horse is capable of much better
+ the horse is possibly better than rated
? the rating is suspect or (used alone) the horse is out of form or cannot be assessed with confidence
§ the squiggle’ indicates the horse is unreliable (for temperamental or other reasons)
§§ the ‘double squiggle’ the horse is so unsatisfactory as to be not worth a rating
x a poor jumper

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