Daily Newsletter – 13th April

Friday – 13th April 2018

 

No joy with Overtown Express yesterday and more disappointing for us, the race was won by Bentelimar and another we had backed LTO. There’s nothing of note at Sedgefield so our main focus today is the Alder Hey (1.45) and the Topham Chase (16.05) for an EW interest bet in the ‘pin the tail on the donkey’ meeting. Despite it being the last ‘official’ meet of our NH season and not one we generally focus on with the C1 events, it does give us a chance to have a nibble at bigger prices and scale back the bank odds (0.625%EW) to end the season.

The latter race sees Deauville Dancer as one of a pair of ‘trackers’ going and one who kicked off our campaign way back with a nice winner – he looks to have a lot on his plate today to feature but is at huge odds for those wanting 50p EW 🙂 The other tracker is Art Mauresque who is a sold jumper and quietly fancied by Paul Nichols. He goes well left handed but when you look at his form he has yet to give anything of a showing in races of 10 or more!….it’s a race we’ll sit out and just take our chance in the opener

Our members selection’s are below and as ever, please drop us a line at feedback@always-back-winners.com with any questions.

 

BOL (Best Of Luck!)

ABW Team

Here’s today’s free Timeform and the assist for the Aintree card from the ‘speedmeisters’…..click on the highlighted link to take you through to your Betfair account……

1.45 Alder Hey Children’s Charity Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) (1) 2½m

Timeform Top Rated:
160 15. WILDE BLUE YONDER Alan King Tom Cannon
159 5. SPIRITOFTHEGAMES Dan Skelton Bridget Andrews (3)
158 11. GRAND PARTNER Thomas Mullins D. J. Mullins

Analyst’s Verdict:
Who Dares Wins left the impression 3m on testing ground stretched his stamina in the Pertemps at Cheltenham and he is taken to show he’s on a good mark back down in trip. Spiritofthegames has a series of good efforts in strong handicaps this winter and should go well again, while Eamon An Cnoic moved well for a long way in the Ultima at Cheltenham and is interesting back hurdling over shorter.

2.20 Betway Top Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) (1) 2m103y

Timeform Top Rated:
165p 4. GLOBAL CITIZEN Ben Pauling Daryl Jacob
161 13. VISION DES FLOS Colin Tizzard Robbie Power
158 15. IRISH ROE Peter Atkinson Henry Brooke

Analyst’s Verdict:
Global Citizen created a fine impression when an all-the-way winner of the Grade 2 Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle at Kempton in February, and kept fresh for this, is very much the one to beat. Scarlet Dragon has 9 lengths to find with the selection, but given that race was his hurdles bow, he’s entitled to finish closer, with Vision des Flos another to consider back down in trip.

2.50 Betway Mildmay Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) (1) 3m210y

Timeform Top Rated:
172p 9. MIA’S STORM Alan King Wayne Hutchinson
171 7. TERREFORT Nicky Henderson Daryl Jacob
170 1. BLACK CORTON Paul Nicholls Bryony Frost

Analyst’s Verdict:
Mia’s Storm was let down by her jumping when sent off favourite against a couple of these rivals in the Kauto Star but her fencing hadn’t been an issue prior to that and she’s worth another chance to show she can do it at the highest level. Coo Star Sivola looks capable of making his mark outside of handicaps, while Elegant Escape and Black Corton are also likely to be in the shake-up.

3.25 JLT Melling Chase (Grade 1) (1) 2m3f200y

Timeform Top Rated:
184 4. MIN W. P. Mullins P. Townend
181 1. BALKO DES FLOS Henry de Bromhead Davy Russell
177 5. POLITOLOGUE Paul Nicholls Sam Twiston-Davies

Analyst’s Verdict: 
Min produced a performance that would have been good enough to win most recent renewals when second in the Champion Chase at the Cheltenham Festival last month and, with the winner Altior an absentee here, he rates the clear one to beat. Ryanair-winner Balko des Flos is the obvious threat.

4.05 Randox Health Topham Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (1) 2m5f19y

Timeform Top Rated:
168 22. THEATRE TERRITORY Warren Greatrex Mr Sam Waley-Cohen (3)
166 15. BALLYALTON Ian Williams Tom O’Brien
166 6. ART MAURESQUE Paul Nicholls Nick Scholfield

Analyst’s Verdict:
Art Mauresque and Theatre Territory are both new to the National fences, but they’re ability to jump soundly and consistently makes them ready-made for this sort of test and they’re less exposed than the bulk of their rivals, so take them against the field, with marginal preference for the first-named. Last year’s fourth (from a higher mark), O O Seven, completes the shortlist.

4.40 Doom Bar Sefton Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) (1) 3m149y

Timeform Top Rated:
165p 7. OK CORRAL Nicky Henderson Barry Geraghty
164p 11. SANTINI Nicky Henderson Nico de Boinville
160 12. TOWER BRIDGE Joseph Patrick O’Brien J. J. Slevin

Analyst’s Verdict:
Nicky Henderson has a very strong hand and Ok Corral is taken to confirm Albert Bartlett form with stablemate Santini and resume winning ways. EBF Novice Final winner Sam’s Gunner looks a smashing prospect for Mick Easterby and he could surprise a few.

5.15 Weatherbys Racing Bank Standard Open National Hunt Flat (Grade 2) (1) 2m209y

Timeform Top Rated:
128P 7. DANNY KIRWAN Paul Nicholls Sam Twiston-Davies
127p 12. MERCY MERCY ME Fergal O’Brien Paddy Brennan
124 14. PYM Nicky Henderson Jeremiah McGrath

Analyst’s Verdict:
Danny Kirwan lacks experience but created a very good impression when pushed out to beat the reopposing Pym at Kempton and can take the step up in class in his stride. Mercy Mercy Me should be more streetwise with his Champion Bumper run behind him and likely has more to come. Like the selection, Mister Fisher and Sevarano both won nicely on Kempton debut and also make the shortlist.