Monday – 16th April 2018

 

The official start to our flat campaign and we awake to Redcar abandoned and an inspection at Windsor so it’s looking likely to be a tad quiet on the selections front for the next couple of weeks – please bear with us on that….like we always say, it’s a marathon and not a sprint, and looking back last term, we went through a spell of around 15 places/2 winners from 22 bets at the start of May (more bloody crossbars!) not being until after Royal Ascot that we really flew.

This week’s feature flat will be the Newmarket’s Craven Meeting and a chance to get some ‘trackers’ on the radar – with the flat season in its infancy and plenty of meets already gone to the weather, it’s negated getting a few in the ‘tracker bank’. We did add a few for the Donny Lincoln Meeting, if anyone missed that you can click on that highlighted link to check out our thoughts.

We will continue the regular format – we will send out a notification email of some sort each day….even if it just to let you know there is just the speed ratings with or without selections that day. Either way, you can always check the ‘BLOG’ tab on the website that is updated around 8.00am daily on a weekday and 10.00am on the weekend!

 

Looking back at the NH…..

A really disappointing end to the to the NH matching a previous losing run of 8 that we incurred in November – overall we took the £1k bank to north of £1700…..not quite the Yukon Gold rush 🙂 …but in the BLACK to ensure we have our normal float for the tilt at the flat.

Looking back….could we have done anything better?……obviously we can leave that for you to come back to us…..there were plenty of ‘crossbars hit’ and ‘posts clipped as we say with very close placed efforts that would have propelled us further north.

Over the next couple of weeks, if there is an occasional NH bet to be had we may put that up until we roll-out the flat in entirety from May.

Back to Today…..

Just Timeform for Windsor for those still wanting some action. The only trackers in our book carried over from last year are Dean Ivory’s Harlequin Striker who does pop up once a season, he’s won off 78 and now off 72 but never won off anything worse than soft. 2 years back he switched from Mick Channon and hadn’t really shown any early season promise until last year when 4th of 12 on the AW at Kempton. He’s a confirmed front runner who could go well if acting on this. The second is Hughie Morrison’s Helfire – a filly who is generally consistent and arrives fit from the AW but without a win off anything above 58 and now off 72!! Bakht A Rawan looks the best call if ok off such an extended break – he gets a good trap 1 draw and proven in his earlier career on this surface and this mark.

All a bit too speculative for us and we’ll take a watching brief – we’ll be back tomorrow.

 

As ever, please drop us a line at feedback@always-back-winners.com with any questions.

 

BOL (Best Of Luck!)

ABW Team

Today’s Selections

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Betfair tap tap boom

Here’s today’s free Timeform and the assist for the Windsor card from the ‘speedmeisters’…..click on the highlighted link to take you through to your Betfair account……

2.20 Sky Bet Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap (6) 5f21y

Timeform Top Rated:
81 1. MAYGOLD Ed Walker Liam Keniry
80 6. G EYE JOE James Given Luke Morris
77 3. MARIETTA ROBUSTI Mick Channon Silvestre De Sousa

Analyst’s Verdict:
You get the feeling G Eye Joe remains with a bigger effort in his locker back on turf and he could be worth chancing in the hope he handles conditions. The ground won’t be an issue for Give Em A Clump, who is interesting back from a gelding operation in re-fitted headgear. Maygold was on a high when last seen and rates a big player also.

2.50 EBF Novice Stakes (5) 5f21y

Timeform Top Rated:
No ratings for this race

Analyst’s Verdict:
This will be a test for these youngsters and the betting will prove informative. Awake In Asiais the most expensive in the field and David Evans has typically been quick off the block with his 2-y-os. He could be the way to go, ahead of Solesmes and Blown By Wind, both of whom also represent yards whose juveniles have been showing up well.

3.20 Crown And Cushion Eton Novice Stakes (5) 1¼m

Timeform Top Rated:
101p 7. SEVENNA STAR John Gosden Robert Havlin
96p 1. KING’S PROCTOR Mark Johnston William Buick
83p 2. MORNING SKYE Hugo Palmer James Doyle

Analyst’s Verdict:
Potentially a good 3-y-o contest and Dante/Derby entry Sevenna Star is taken to build on the promise of his 2-y-o runs and make a successful return with the step up in trip sure to suit. Previous winners King’s Proctor and Morning Skye have to be respected, while Ishallak is an interesting newcomer being a half-brother to a useful one who thrived on heavy ground.

3.50 MPM Flooring Handicap (5) 1¼m

Timeform Top Rated:
94 2. FAST AND HOT Richard Hannon Rossa Ryan (5)
92 6. ESSENAITCH David Evans John Egan
92 7. MAROC Nikki Evans Luke Morris

Analyst’s Verdict:
Bombero is a winner on heavy ground and has returned in good heart. He’s taken to land the spoils. Fast And Hot is doubtless capable of a big run back at Windsor but may not want it to get too testing. Essenaitch is another who enjoyed a good time of it here last year and has to be respected.

4.20 Sky Bet Windsor Sprint Series Handicap (Qualifier) (3) 6f12y

Timeform Top Rated:
109 2. MOBSTA Mick Channon Silvestre De Sousa
108 10. BAHAMIAN DOLLAR David Evans David Egan (3)
107 4. MAJOR PUSEY John Gallagher Hector Crouch

Analyst’s Verdict:
Mobsta made a highly eye-catching return at Doncaster last month, finishing well having had a troubled passage. Back under De Sousa he can strike for the first time since winning a Group 2 in Ireland nearly 2 years ago. Glory of Paris is in good heart and ran well in the mud at Bath last time, while Poet’s Princess is capable of a big run if ready to go on her comeback.

4.50 Sky Bet Britain’s Most Popular Online Bookmaker Handicap (5) 1m31y

Timeform Top Rated:
82 7. TEARDROP ISLAND David Evans John Egan
80 3. RAINBOW JAZZ Mark Usher Nicola Currie (5)
79 8. LADY ALAVESA Gay Kelleway Martin Dwyer

Analyst’s Verdict:
Several potential improvers here, including Icart Point, who represents last year’s winning trainer. He gets the vote over Mom Said and Unbridled Spirit who boast similar profiles. Lady Alavesa could be the pick of those with more experience.

5.25 Sky Bet Top Price Promise Handicap (5) 1m31y

Timeform Top Rated:
93 4. BAKHT A RAWAN Stuart Kittow Silvestre De Sousa
92 6. HELFIRE Hughie Morrison Robert Winston
92 9. HAWRIDGE GLORY Rod Millman Oisin Murphy

Analyst’s Verdict:
Bakht A Rawan has a lengthy absence to overcome, but has gone well fresh in the past and is proven on heavy ground. He could make a winning return back under Silvestre De Sousa. Spanish History, Zlatan and Wicker can all figure if handling conditions.

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