Daily Newsletter – 19th April

Thursday – 19th April 2018

 

Last day of the Craven and it’s not been a bad day for the stats and trends given in the members area – no official bets from us but today out of three horses mentioned it chucked in Richard Hannon’s  Anna Nerium in the big 14.25 Free Handicap yesterday – the angle given was his strike rate with LTO runners at Newmarket that followed up on their next showing at HQ!!!

Our notebookers so far at the HQ meeting can be seen at the link Craven Meeting Review.

However there’s nothing of interest there today but we have one at Ripon that has really caught our attention for our sole selection today. He’s one we expect to improve this summer and if we don’t catch him today we’ll be expecting a payback very soon.

Our members content is below….. and as ever, please drop us a line at feedback@always-back-winners.com with any questions.

 

BOL (Best Of Luck!)

ABW Team

Here’s today’s free Timeform and the assist for the Newmarket card from the ‘speedmeisters’…..click on the highlighted link to take you through to your Betfair account……

1.50 bet365.com Handicap (2) 6f

Timeform Top Rated:
110 7. CAPTAIN JAMESON John Quinn Jason Hart
109 3. DESERT DOCTOR Ed Walker Luke Morris
107p 4. MUSIC SOCIETY Sylvester Kirk Ryan Moore

Analyst’s Verdict:
Music Society had 4-time subsequent winner Corinthia Knight and proven Group-class performer Sound And Silence behind when runner-up at Wolverhampton on his latest start in December. This stiffer track will be very much in his favour and the booking of Ryan Moore for this handicap debut suggests that connections mean business. Desert Doctor, Captain Jameson and Maybride are all live dangers.

2.25 bet365 Wood Ditton Maiden Stakes (3) 1m

Timeform Top Rated:
No ratings for this race

Analyst’s Verdict:
The favourite has won 2 of the last 4 renewals so the market should prove informative again but the one who catches the eye is Surya. John Gosden’s colt is by Frankel out of Oaks-winner Sariska, and his entries in the Dante/Derby suggest he’s been showing up well at home. Godolphin have an excellent record in this so Karaginsky and Military Band are likely players, too.

3.00 Connaught Access Flooring Abernant Stakes (Group 3) (1) 6f

Timeform Top Rated:
131 4. LE BRIVIDO A. Fabre Pierre-Charles Boudot
130 1. BRANDO Kevin Ryan Tom Eaves
127 2. DREAM OF DREAMS Sir Michael Stoute Andrea Atzeni

Analyst’s Verdict:
Andre Fabre’s trips across the Channel are usually well-judged and Le Brivido should prove hard to beat if ready to roll following a 10-month layoff. He probably had more in hand than the winning margin suggests when touching off Spirit of Valor at Royal Ascot last summer and dropping back in trip shouldn’t be an issue. Brando is an obvious danger, while Dream of Dreams also merits respect.

3.35 bet365 Craven Stakes (Group 3) (1) 1m

Timeform Top Rated:
134p 4. ROARING LION John Gosden Oisin Murphy
129 3. MASAR Charlie Appleby William Buick
119p 1. GLORIOUS JOURNEY Charlie Appleby James Doyle

Analyst’s Verdict:
Roaring Lion clearly has bigger fish to fry, with this assignment serving as an aperitif ahead of a tilt at the 2000 Guineas back here in just over 2 weeks’ time. Still, even if not fully wound-up he will prove hard to beat. Given his pedigree and price tag, expectations surrounding the unbeaten Glorious Journey will be high but stablemate Masar is a more appealing option for forecast purposes.

4.10 Rossdales Maiden Fillies’ Stakes (4) 7f

Timeform Top Rated:
106 13. SHEIKHA REIKA Roger Varian Andrea Atzeni
102 3. HULA GIRL Charles Hills William Buick
91p 9. OCALA Andrew Balding David Probert

Analyst’s Verdict:
Sheikha Reika might not emulate the achievements of her half-sister Lumiere, but did nothing wrong in defeat last season, and looks worth siding with on her reappearance. It’s the usual competitive field for a Newmarket maiden, with Hula Girl very interesting on her return having also shown plenty in 2017, while Improve is a noteworthy newcomer for William Haggas.

4.45 British EBF bet365 “Confined” Novice Stakes (4) (D.I) 1¼m

Timeform Top Rated:
98p 3. ARGENTELLO John Gosden Frankie Dettori
93p 2. NORDIC LIGHTS Charlie Appleby William Buick
85P 1. ELECTOR Sir Michael Stoute Ryan Moore

Analyst’s Verdict:
This has the look of a potentially informative contest. Argentello lost out only to an experienced rival on debut at Doncaster and, with the distinct possibility of better to come, he is taken to go one better this time. Previous winners Nordic Lights and Elector are both good prospects and rate the main dangers, while newcomers Caliburn and Loveisili merit close attention in the betting.

5.20 British EBF bet365 “Confined” Novice Stakes (4) (D.II) 1¼m

Timeform Top Rated:
92p 2. OCCUPY Ralph Beckett Richard Kingscote
87P 1. AFRICAN JAZZ Charlie Appleby William Buick
86p 7. SLEEPING LION James Fanshawe Daniel Muscutt

Analyst’s Verdict:
There was much to like about the way African Jazz did the job on debut at Lingfield and, armed with a great deal of potential, he is marginally preferred to a similarly promising type in Occupy. Howman and Stream of Stars are particularly appealing as far as the newcomers go, while Star of Southwold and Sleeping Lion, both of whom shaped well first time out, are others to keep an eye on.

5.55 Close Brothers Premium Finance Handicap (4) 1m

Timeform Top Rated:
104p 4. BREATH CAUGHT Ralph Beckett Ryan Moore
97 3. PLUNGER Paul Cole Non Runner
96p 15. BERTOG John Mackie Tom Eaves

Analyst’s Verdict:
Given his pedigree, progressive profile and the booking of Ryan Moore, the allure of Breath Caught is too strong to resist. Indeed, Ralph Beckett’s charge may well have got in lightly for this handicap debut. Bertog, who performed with credit in a big-field nursery here in the autumn, may emerge as the main danger. Intense Pleasure and George are others to consider for each-way purposes.