Daily Newsletter – 21st April

Saturday – 21st April 2018

 

Another ‘pin the tail’ event going on North Of The Border today with Scottish National at Ayr  – for those following the NH there’s Timeform for that one below. A couple running at big prices to consider are Paul Nicholls’ SILSOL who has a bit of course previous….probably with better hurdling credentials, he was 4th in the Midlands National and 5th at Chepstow in the Welsh equivalent. His spring form on drying ground looks solid and as Nicholls quotes, ‘he stays longer than the mother-in-law’, and could be a decent double digit price shout if jumping well.

Back to the flat….

It’s a big day at Newbury with another straight mile handicap, The (C2) Greatwood Spring Cup  (15.45) to follow up the early season Lincoln – we quietly fancied Ballard Down in that one following his exploits when an improving winner for us last term and he’s back out this afternoon. He didn’t have the best draw in the Lincoln but it’s a bit early to see if he can win off 102 upped from low 90’s when winning for us back in July. If you hit the Lincoln link it will take you back to our notes of a couple we noted running well at the meeting who go in this – namely Leader Writer (Lincoln Handicap) & Jedd’s Lord Of the Rock who ran well in the Donny Spring Mile and has the eye-catching booking of SDS. They both seem to get a favoured draw (high), when the going is soft at Newbury ad preference would be for Fran Berry on Leader Writer who seemed most inconvenienced by the draw in the Lincoln.

Early days for us in terms of the flat….we’d sooner be backing in a midweek C4 when it’s lashing down at Ponty 🙂 and we’ll be ramping things up from next week. However, it would be rude not to include a Saturday selection and we’ve one for the members below at a double digit price in the C3 Dubai Duty Free Millennium Millionaire Handicap (17.35) below, who’s another like Kupa River who we feel will be an improver this year.

Our members content is below….. and as ever, please drop us a line at feedback@always-back-winners.com with any questions.

 

BOL (Best Of Luck!)

ABW Team

Here’s today’s free Timeform and the assist for the Ayr card from the ‘speedmeisters’…..click on the highlighted link to take you through to your Betfair account……

1.45 Scotty Brand Handicap Chase (Listed) (1) 2m110y

Timeform Top Rated:
167 5. THEINVAL Nicky Henderson Jeremiah McGrath
166? 10. DOUBLE W’S Ruth Jefferson Brian Hughes
165+ 3. VANITEUX David Pipe Tom Scudamore

Analyst’s Verdict:
Theinval ran well on soft at Aintree last week but he is ideally suited by less testing conditions, as he showed twice at this meeting last year, and can take advantage of the same mark back on more suitable ground, despite just a fair effort here on Friday. Last year’s first 2, Vaniteux and Romain de Senam head the dangers, though the latter needs to bounce back.

2.20 Dawn Homes Novices’ Championship Handicap Chase (2) 3m20y

Timeform Top Rated:
156p 3. DINGO DOLLAR Alan King Wayne Hutchinson
155 4. BARNEY DWAN Fergal O’Brien Noel Fehily
154 7. BRAQUEUR D’OR Paul Nicholls Sam Twiston-Davies

Analyst’s Verdict:
Barney Dwan ran well in by far the most competitive chase he’s contested yet at Cheltenham last month, hitting the frame at the Festival for the second year in a row, and looks sure to make a bold bid returned to 3m. Dingo Dollar is progressing well and is next best ahead of Braqueur d’Or.

2.55 QTS Scottish Champion Hurdle (Limited Handicap) (Grade 2) (1) 2m

Timeform Top Rated:
166 4. CHARLI PARCS Nicky Henderson Barry Geraghty
165 3. VERDANA BLUE Nicky Henderson James Bowen (3)
164 11. BRELADE Gordon Elliott Davy Russell

Analyst’s Verdict:
The manner in which Beyond The Clouds moves through his races suggests the tempo of a big-field handicap could see him in a better light and he can stretch his unbeaten record over timber to 4. Last year’s winner Chesterfield signalled he’s back in form when fourth in the County, while Verdana Blue got stuck in the mud in the Betfair Hurdle and will find these conditions much more to her liking.

3.30 Jordan Electrics Ltd Future Champion Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) (1) 2½m110y

Timeform Top Rated:
171p 5. MIA’S STORM Alan King Wayne Hutchinson
170 2. BIGMARTRE Harry Whittington Harry Bannister
166+ 4. PEREGRINE RUN Peter Fahey Roger Loughran

Analyst’s Verdict:
Mia’s Storm looked a top-notch prospect when bolting up on her first couple of attempts over fences, so a subsequent fall (when still going well) in a Grade 1 at Kempton on Boxing Day shouldn’t be held against her too strongly. She can get back on track here, but the presence of tough front-runner Bigmartre and the likeable Peregrine Run means this is by no means a formality for Alan King’s mare.

4.05 Coral Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (1) 3m7f176y

Timeform Top Rated:
169 4. BALLYOPTIC Nigel Twiston-Davies Tom Bellamy
168 3. SIZING CODELCO Colin Tizzard Paul O’Brien (5)
168 8. SIZING TENNESSEE Colin Tizzard Robbie Power

Analyst’s Verdict:
The four-miler at the Cheltenham Festival is usually a reliable pointer for this and Sizing Tennessee makes plenty of appeal having run a cracker in third there despite appearing to do too much too soon. The hat-trick seeking Vicente, Ballyoptic, Doing Fine and Indy Five complete the shortlist.

4.40 Ayrshire Hospice Land O’Burns Starlight Walk Handicap Hurdle (2) 2m5f91y

Timeform Top Rated:
163 4. MOON RACER David Pipe Tom Scudamore
162x 10. MINELLA CHARMER James Moffatt Henry Brooke
161 1. WILLIAM HENRY Nicky Henderson James Bowen (3)

Analyst’s Verdict:
Nicky Henderson holds a strong hand, not least with Soul Emotion who looked a potentially smart prospect when bolting up on his British debut at Sandown last month. He arrives fresher than most for this time of year and earns the vote. William Henry is a big danger though, while Moon Racer and Reverant Cust are equally worth keeping an eye on.

5.15 Ayrshire Magazine Racing Excellence ‘Hands & Heels’ Finale Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle (Conditional Jockeys And Amateur Riders) (3) 2½m100y

Timeform Top Rated:
141 11. BALLYVIC BORU Brian Ellison Philip Donovan
138 1. SECRETE STREAM Ruth Jefferson Aiden Blakemore (3)
137 13. COOL MIX Iain Jardine Mr Liam Quinlan (7)

Analyst’s Verdict:
Ballyvic Boru is potentially well-treated on the evidence of his Perth maiden hurdle win last summer, and looks an interesting runner fitted with a tongue tie on the back of a wind operation. Big Robin remains with potential heading into handicaps, while Quest For Life should go well again if handling this quick turnaround.

5.50 Starrett Standard Open National Hunt Flat (3) 2m

Timeform Top Rated:
118 3. PRECIOUS CARGO Lucinda Russell Derek Fox
117 13. LEOSTAR Alistair Whillans Craig Nichol
116 1. BLACK PIRATE James Ewart Steven Fox (5)

Analyst’s Verdict:
Sebastopol represents a stable that is both in top form and capable of having debut bumper winners, so this easy winner of a point could start his career under Rules with a bang by taking this highly competitive event. Nicky Henderson looks to have a strong hand with newcomers Igor and New Moon, and dual winner Black Pirate is arguably the pick of those with experience.