Daily Newsletter – 4th May

Friday – 4th May 2018

 

Nothing to report on yesterday – Redcar’s first four races went the way of short priced favourites and we didn’t really want to get involved with the C6 last race of the day, albeit went to a big priced winner with Scott Dixon’s Thundercloud at 16’s.

On the eve of the Guineas Meeting weekend from HQ we have a couple of minor meets at Chepstow heavy and Musselburgh. Nothing of note for the former and as we mentioned yesterday, they’re under 50 runners across the 7 races and not a whole lot of EW value.

At Musselburgh, a couple we noted running well at Beverley last week, Rapid Applause and Tanosoq renew battle in the 14.40 – the former came out on top as an easy winner that day with the latter impressing from a poor draw. However, it’s the same story again where Rapid Applause gets a favoured low draw and will go off at under 5’s with Tanosoq out of 12. It’s a wide open looking affair with Eric Alston’s Lydiate Lady still progressing at 6yo and Daniel Loughnane’s Fethiye Boy possibly the best at higher odds on 2nd outing back after wind surgery.

The 15.10 throws in Crazy Tornado, who we had a bit of fun with last year with a nice win and a place from the Dalgleish yard. He’s more at home over 8f so hopefully this will sharpen him up and maybe take a couple of pounds from his rating.

We’re taking one in the 14.40 race for our members selections below and as ever, please drop us a line at feedback@always-back-winners.com with any questions…..

BH Weekend things…..

The Saturday/Sunday card’s are forecast quiet from us with all the C1 and ‘Group stuff’ going on – we’ll probably just post Timeform for the Saturday /Sunday meetings and get back to action on Monday.

There will be a small post on the website in the ‘BLOG’ from around 10.00am if you don’t receive any formal email notifications on both Saturday & Sunday.

Next week there’e one of our favourite meetings at Chester and probably could be said the meet where we kicked it all off on Facebook way back in 2013!!!!!

 

Any FREE MEMBERS looking to receive today’s selections……just follow the UPGRADE link

 

BOL (Best Of Luck!)

ABW Team

Here’s today’s free Timeform and the assist for the Chepstow Heavy  🙂 card from the ‘speedmeisters’…..click on the highlighted link to take you through to your Betfair account……

2.00 Best Odds Guaranteed At 188Bet Handicap (5) 1½m

Timeform Top Rated:
92 5. INCREDIBLE DREAM Dean Ivory Jack Duern (3)
91 1. HOPE IS HIGH John Berry Nicola Currie (5)
90 2. ASTUTE BOY Harry Fry Jamie Spencer

Analyst’s Verdict:
Astute Boy developed into a solid operator for Ed Vaughan last term and, returning on a mark he is expected to be competitive from, all looks set fair for a big run. Incredible Dream and Bombero may emerge as the chief threats.

2.30 Select Security Novice Stakes (5) 1¼m

Timeform Top Rated:
95p 7. KING LUD Andrew Balding Oisin Murphy
94? 2. COEUR BLIMEY Susan Gardner Jamie Spencer
67 5. NAFAAYES Jean-Rene Auvray Georgia Cox (3)

Analyst’s Verdict: 
King Lud was well drawn when fourth in the Wood Ditton 2 weeks ago, but he still showed quite a bit of ability that day, keeping on inside the final 1f. With progress expected, he can make it second time lucky. Couer Blimey, better known as a fairly useful hurdler, can emerge as the chief threat, ahead of Ishallak.

3.00 PTL Portable Toilets Ltd Fillies’ Handicap (5) 7f16y

Timeform Top Rated:
88p 4. GREAT SHOT SAM Andrew Balding David Probert
85 5. FIRE ORCHID Richard Hannon Pat Dobbs
83 8. POLLY’S GOLD Karen George Rhiain Ingram (5)

Analyst’s Verdict:
For all she needs to prove her ability to handle conditions, Great Shot Sam still makes plenty of appeal. Her career to date is a steadily-progressive one and further improvement rates a distinct possibility judged on her latest Lingfield second. Goodnight Girl, for the in-form Jonathan Portman team, Fire Orchid and Gilded Hour are all respected though.

3.30 Yolk Recruitment Handicap (4) 1m14y

Timeform Top Rated:
95 2. TALLOW William Haggas Kieran Shoemark
93p 6. UNBRIDLED SPIRIT Andrew Balding Oisin Murphy
88 5. MARBLE BAR Henry Candy Nicola Currie (5)

Analyst’s Verdict:
Tallow looked a useful prospect when landing each of her last 2 starts as a 2-y-o and whilst her Newbury return 2 weeks ago has to go down as disappointing, she’s worth another chance to confirm previous promise. Statuario has been gelded since last seen and is feared, along with Unbridled Spirit.

4.00 County Marquees Handicap (6) 6f16y

Timeform Top Rated:
73 2. GIVE EM A CLUMP David Evans Nicola Currie (5)
69 6. FELSTEAD KNIGHT Joseph Tuite Oisin Murphy
68 3. LOPE DE LOOP David Evans Fran Berry

Analyst’s Verdict:
Give Em A Clump posted another good effort when runner-up behind a much-improved winner at Bath 2 days ago and with blinkers now replacing the visor, he looks sure to give it his best shot again. Grandma Tilly blew her chance at the start in that same race but is considered if breaking on terms, while Lope De Loop can also figure down in trip.

4.30 Download The App At 188Bet Veterans’ Handicap (5) 5f16y

Timeform Top Rated:
95 1. DESERT ACE Paul Midgley Dougie Costello
93 5. KINGLAMI John O’Shea Oisin Murphy
92 3. SEAMSTER David Loughnane Laura Coughlan (7)

Analyst’s Verdict: 
Desert Ace ran just about his best race for his present stable when a keeping-on fourth over this trip at Beverley 8 days ago. He was competitive from this sort of mark last term and should make a bold bid. Satchville Flyer and Kinglami are next best.

5.00 Network Productions Handicap (6) 2m

Timeform Top Rated:
81 2. FITZWILLY Mick Channon Franny Norton
80+ 5. UNBLINKING Nigel Twiston-Davies Kieran Shoemark
79 4. OUR FOLLY Stuart Kittow Oisin Murphy

Analyst’s Verdict:
Fitzwilly‘s latest third at Kempton was a return to his best, and that in spite of being left poorly placed, and operating from 1 lb below his last winning mark he could well be ready to strike back on turf. Unblinking has shaped well on 2 of his last 3 starts and is feared most, ahead of Ocean Gale.