Sunday Newsletter – 6th May

Sunday – 6th May 2018

 

With no selections yesterday it’s straight into the 1000 Guineas Day meets – only the opener at HQ would be something on our radar if considering a C2.

Favourite Adamant gets the services of Ryan Moore who hoofs it back from riding in the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs – as it turned out, Mendelssohn ran up last place, possibly being due to being bumped at the start on what was a mud bath – more akin to Chepstow heavy 🙂 He’s an obvious improver who only just failed to catch Lunar Jet in the Millennium Handicap at Newbury LTO but no value at around 5/2.

Three from our 2017 tracker are out, firstly in the Rod Millman’s four-year-old Duke Of Bronte who performed ran well in some big handicaps, notably winning a Heritage Handicap at Ascot. though that was on softer ground than this. The Grand Visir from the Willie Haggas yard offers decent EW value but looking longer term through the season, Ian Williams isn’t quite high profile as the afore mentioned and saddles French import RESHOUN who performed well back end last term. He looks like he could improve further than the 8lb rise he received for those autumn runs and one to keep on the right side.

Anyone seeking further inspiration from the speedmeisters…..check out the Guineas Preview link.

At Hamilton we’re predominantly looking at the last 16.55 8f race – we have had some good touches over the last four years from the Dalgleish camp, especially with Jacob Black as he was going up the ratings back in 2015 with Frankie up top. He’s back with them after a spell with Kenny Johnson and they turned his form around on first outing for them having slipped from a high of 90 to around 50 in the ratings!!! If he turns up in the same form, in theory should have no issue following up. However he has to come from wide that and there’s another we prefer for members below……..however what do we know as Taurean Star won from 12 at Goodwood (yesterday’s notes) – well done those who commented that they had backed that at 12’s.

We’ll be back before 10.00am in the morning with an update and as ever, please drop us a line at feedback@always-back-winners.com with any questions…..

 

 

Any FREE MEMBERS looking to receive paid selections……just follow the UPGRADE link

 

BOL (Best Of Luck!)

ABW Team

Here’s today’s free Timeform and the assist for the Newmarket card from the ‘speedmeisters’…..click on the highlighted link to take you through to your Betfair account……

1.50 Qatar Racing Handicap (2) 1½m

Timeform Top Rated:
115p 13. ADAMANT Sir Michael Stoute Ryan Moore
114 14. OASIS FANTASY David Simcock Martin Harley
114 7. UAE PRINCE Roger Varian Andrea Atzeni

Analyst’s Verdict:
Adamant, for all he is very lightly raced, is clearly a 4-y-o on the up, taking time to unwind but ultimately shaping well when runner-up at Newbury in April. The longer trip rates an obvious plus and he can do even better still moving forward. Duke of Bronte was a good winner on return and is feared, whilst UAE Prince and The Grand Visir can do better again this term.

2.20 Charm Spirit Dahlia Stakes (Group 2) (1) 1m1f

Timeform Top Rated:
129 1. WUHEIDA Charlie Appleby William Buick
128 4. GOLDEN LEGEND H-F. Devin Alexis Badel
122p 3. ELEGANT POSE G. M. Lyons Colin Keane

Analyst’s Verdict:
All bar 2 of these fillies are making their seasonal reappearance, but the 2 to focus on are Wuheida and Golden Legend. They set a clear standard on what they achieved last year, and it’s Breeders’ Cup Filly And Mare Turf winner Wuheida that is taken to come out on top. She has to concede 5 lb to her rivals, but strikes as the type to improve further this year.

2.55 Longholes.com Handicap (2) 6f

Timeform Top Rated:
126 3. MR LUPTON Richard Fahey Jamie Spencer
124 4. AEOLUS Ed Walker Pat Cosgrave
123 11. BARON BOLT Paul Cole Raul Da Silva

Analyst’s Verdict:
Mr Lupton took this prize a year ago from 3 lb higher, and with an encouraging reappearance under his belt, he is selected to cash in on some generous handicapping. As you would expect there are numerous threats, headed by the Roger Varian-trained pair Ekhtiyaar and Victory Angel.

3.35 QIPCO 1000 Guineas Stakes (Group 1) (1) 1m

Timeform Top Rated:
130 5. HAPPILY Aidan O’Brien Ryan Moore
127p 14. WILD ILLUSION Charlie Appleby James Doyle
126 7. LAURENS K. R. Burke P. J. McDonald

Analyst’s Verdict:
Aidan O’Brien has won this race 4 times and looks the trainer to focus on again. I Can Fly has a similar profile to last year’s winner Winter and is taken to improve past stablemate Happily. The Charlie Appleby pair Soliloquy, who has been supplemented on the back of her Nell Gwyn success, and Wild Illusion also look sure to have a big say in an open renewal.

4.10 Havana Gold Maiden Stakes (3) 5f

Timeform Top Rated:
94p 1. BAREND BOY Hugo Palmer Josephine Gordon
59p 6. SMILE A MILE Mark Johnston James Doyle

Analyst’s Verdict:
This looks a strong maiden on paper but Barend Boy ran to a high level on debut at Leicester last week and can put that experience to good use. Fly The Nest heads a clutch of interesting newcomers.

4.45 Tweenhills Pretty Polly Stakes (Listed) (1) 1¼m

Timeform Top Rated:
115p 6. QAZYNA Roger Varian Andrea Atzeni
111P 3. LAH TI DAR John Gosden Frankie Dettori
110+ 2. EXPRESSIY Charlie Appleby William Buick

Analyst’s Verdict:
Lah Ti Dar looked a filly right out of the top drawer when making a winning debut at Newbury last month, and with scope for significant improvement, she can take this before going on to better things. Qazyna is a big imposing sort who’s sure to have a bright future, while Expressiy is also respected.

5.20 QIPCO Supporting British Racing Handicap (3) 1¼m

Timeform Top Rated:
112p 1. DUKHAN Hugo Palmer Frankie Dettori
111p 3. BOW STREET Charlie Appleby William Buick
107p 4. KITAABAAT Owen Burrows Jim Crowley

Analyst’s Verdict:
Dukhan and Bow Street are closely matched on their pleasing reappearance runs in a hot C&D handicap at the Craven meeting. Hugo Palmer’s charge just lost out late and can make amends from his old rival. Kitaabaat, He’s Amazing and Grecian Spirit are other potential improvers in what should be another good 3-y-o race to follow.