Eric Alston & Kevin Ryan – Early Season Trainer Track Profiles
Following on from last week’s look at 5 & 6 furlong sprinters we received a few emails asking if we could delve a bit more into one’s we have targeted in the past, namely Eric Alston & Kevin Ryan.
The former is local to us and always been of interest with his record. Let’s take a deeper look to see if we can isolate any angles that yield greater profit?
We’ll look at another area of interest of what we classify and an intermediate specialist trip, and the 7f ‘sprinters’ later this week.
5-year record, April, May & June – all turf tracks 5 – 7f handicaps with an IV > or =1.44
As we can see the usual suspects are there in the shape of Eric Alston and Kevin Ryan with the former hitting an Impact Value (IV) of 3.06. In layman’s terms that means his charges are just over 3 times more likely to win with the norm being 1.0. It’s a figure we tend to look for when making our selections and more meaningful than the Average/Expected (A/E), that can be skewed by a big priced winner.
Obviously, this is linked to the number of meetings during the early part of the season. Whilst Redcar is top of the pile in terms of IV, he hasn’t had an entry there in the last 2 years, and Thirsk has been his regular stomping ground.
Alston has a couple of ‘go-to’ jockeys, being Rachel Richardson & Jason Hart, the figures below are for the last 5 seasons, and with Neil Farley’s relocation to Australia, the former pick up his rides.
Eric’s sprinters tend to travel at the head of affairs and looking at the 2-year trend of the above you get the filtered chart below.
Being sprint races, there’s less time to come off the pace and we generally tend to target those who race at the head of affairs or prominently. If we further filter the above table by their charges who fit that criteria we obtain the following table.
Perhaps that suggests that Rachel Richardson, whilst hitting a 50% place rate, is riding his hold-ups or those in need of a run? However, the data sample is so small, when quizzed, 3 of the 4 entries relate to Redrosezorro (one of our winners coincidentally!) and Jason Hart is obviously more of interest on Alston’s early-season charges. He’s landed 2 wins/4 places on those 5 rides with over 110% ROI.
Ryan clearly targets the early season York races with 25 runners but no winners, and there looks to be more pickings with his charges at Thirsk & Wetherby that have given good ROI. However, it’s his Newmarket performance that is stand out and worthy of note. The vast majority of these coming in C2 & C3 races that we haven’t particularly targeted in the past. Food for thought?
Again we have filtered this for his front running types as that takes the IV up from just over 1.0 to 2.24 and it’s the Tome Eaves bookings that more than catch the eye?
Hopefully, some snippets that we can use when we get back up and running if both trainers have managed to keep their charges fresh and ready?
Stay safe and I will post something up around 7f ‘sprints’ later this week.
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