Friday Newsletter – 30th November 2018

Friday – 30th November 2018

Please bear with us while we go through our ‘couldn’t tip a wheelbarrow’ stage – obviously November is heading up to be our first losing month of the year and not the start we had hoped for the NH 🙁

Obviously we have many long term members and you have not been short on ideas and comments regarding our opening 10 bets – Mike says, “historically you have always performed better on the flat, do you think that is because statistically there are more short priced winning favourites over the sticks – a couple of years back you posted BLD’s (best lumpers) and BEW’s (best EW’s) in combination. Other services do not limit themselves to solely EW bets and perhaps a combo of the two could work where there is that swing towards shorter priced in NH. Do you think that it could be a wiser strategy for the NH?”

Certainly a valid and considered opinion 🙂 – we have received more of those of a similar theme and perhaps yes, it can be a serious consideration. It certainly was borne out yesterday with 15 short priced favourites winning 21 of the day’s races!!! The two races we targeted threw up a 20/1 and 10/3f winners but we couldn’t land a place. Again, we seem to be having better luck with the intro notes as Bonza Girl landed the Taunton (15.45) at 6/4.

We don’t want to knee-jerk to early in the season – as we mentioned last week, Peterborough was an omission on our part that would have popped us into profit! Also appreciate that some of you ‘paper trade’ until you feel form has settled anyway – perhaps a significant factor this term has also been the top of the ground going and things may even out when we get some cut?

It is an option though to post a combo of EW bets and also WIN bets using 1.25% EW or 2.5% WIN on shorter priced fancies, so if you want to add any comments drop us a line at address alwaysbackwinners2018@gmail.com or you can post in the forum section below and we’ll review over the weekend.

Back to matters today…..nothing to be considered for the Newbury meet with just a couple of C1 & C2’s – there’s Timeform for the meet below.

At Donny, only the 13.40 would be on our radar – the favourite Buster Thomas looks solid with improvement to come and rate the banker for those looking at lumpers. Those of value – Bouvreil and Katgary were both competing at Cheltenham 2 years ago, the former goes on debut for Ben Haslam whilst both are coming back off 200+ day breaks and Kauto Riko didn’t get far off his break blundering at the first at Aintree on debut!

Nothing today for members and we’ll be back in the morning before 10.00am

For those on the new £1k to £10k, current stakes are now £10.37 EW and the bank stands at £829.71

Anyone wishing to contact us direct, please use the email address alwaysbackwinners2018@gmail.com or at feedback@ always-back-winners.com……any FREE SERVICE MEMBERS looking to receive the latest premium service selections and join the next £1k to £10k quest.……just follow the UPGRADE link.

BOL (Best Of Luck!)

ABW Team

Here’s today’s free Timeform and the assist for the Newbury card from the ‘speedmeisters’…..click on the highlighted link to take you through to your Betfair account……

12.10 Ladbrokes ‘National Hunt’ Maiden Hurdle (3) 2m69y

Timeform Top Rated:
139p 17. SEVARANO Oliver Sherwood Leighton Aspell
138 1. BANG ON FRANKIE Nicky Martin Matt Griffiths
123 20. WEST TO THE BRIDGE Dan Skelton Conor Shoemark

Analyst’s Verdict:
Strong Glance took his form to a new level when seeing off 12 rivals in a Cheltenham bumper last month (form worked out exceptionally well) and he looks sure to have a bright future over timber. Sevarano and Bang On Frankie bring solid hurdles form to the table and will be winning races soon enough, while Betameche is another really interesting runner despite his absence.

12.45 Ladbrokes Chase (Novices’ Limited Handicap) (3) 2m92y

Timeform Top Rated:
155p 3. KNOCKNANUSS Gary Moore Jamie Moore
152p 5. KUPATANA Nicky Henderson Nico de Boinville
150p 7. AL SHAHIR Dan Skelton Harry Skelton

Analyst’s Verdict: 
Kupatana landed a gamble when making an impressive chasing debut at Kempton on return and is sure to progress and win more races. Knocknanuss won hard held at Fakenham last month and has more to offer, while Delire d’Estruval was a game winner at Carlisle.

1.20 Ladbrokes Novices’ Hurdle (3) 2½m118y

Timeform Top Rated:
137p 1. KATESON Tom Lacey Tom Scudamore
133p 11. MR PUMBLECHOOK Alan King Wayne Hutchinson
132p 7. ECLAIR D’AINAY Dan Skelton Harry Skelton

Analyst’s Verdict:
Kateson, a useful performer in bumpers, was impressive when making it first time lucky over hurdles at Chepstow and, with improvement expected, he can defy a penalty. Morning Vicar and Drunken Pirate both impressed in bumpers also and merit respect, whilst Eclair d’Ainay and Mr Pumblechook can also do better.

1.50 Ladbrokes Novices’ Chase (Berkshire) (Grade 2) (1) 2m3f187y

Timeform Top Rated:
165p 4. LA BAGUE AU ROI Warren Greatrex Richard Johnson
163P 2. LOSTINTRANSLATION Colin Tizzard Robbie Power
158p 3. TALKISCHEAP Alan King Wayne Hutchinson

Analyst’s Verdict:
A fascinating battle ensued when Lostintranslation and La Bague Au Roi locked horns at this track on their first attempts at chasing and there’s every reason to expect another exciting duel here. Of the pair, the first-named is the most likely to benefit from that run, so he’s taken to reverse the form, with Chepstow winner Spiritofthegames far from ruled out.

2.25 Ladbrokes Handicap Chase (2) 2m3f187y

Timeform Top Rated:
163p 2. WILLOUGHBY COURT Ben Pauling Nico de Boinville
162 5. KING’S ODYSSEY Evan Williams Adam Wedge
162? 3. ASO Venetia Williams Charlie Deutsch

Analyst’s Verdict:
Willoughby Court has been off the track since below par at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day, but he gave the impression he was going to take high rank among the novice chasers after his win in the Grade 2 Berkshire on this card 12 months ago and his opening mark is an appealing one. He can get back on the up after a breathing operation. King’s Odyssey and Touch Kick are feared most.

3.00 Ladbrokes Long Distance Hurdle (Grade 2) (1) 3m52y

Timeform Top Rated:
176 1. SAM SPINNER Jedd O’Keeffe Joe Colliver
175 7. UNOWHATIMEANHARRY Harry Fry Barry Geraghty
174 2. WHOLESTONE Nigel Twiston-Davies Daryl Jacob

Analyst’s Verdict:
Sam Spinner wasn’t at his best during the spring, but is only a 6-y-o and has a good record fresh, so he could be worth chancing to make a bold bid from the front and get back on the up. Wholestone, a winner on return at Aintree, looks sure to give his running, whilst Unowhatimeanharry, behind that one there, will benefit from this return to 3m.

3.35 Ladbrokes Handicap Hurdle (2) 3m52y

Timeform Top Rated:
154 10. JUGE ET PARTI Nigel Twiston-Davies Sam Twiston-Davies
153 12. HIT THE HIGHWAY Chris Gordon Brendan Powell
150 11. ROCKPOINT Colin Tizzard Sean Bowen

Analyst’s Verdict:
Juge Et Parti is one of the least exposed in the field and marked himself down as well treated on just his second outing for this yard when runner-up at Chepstow recently, so he could be the answer in this highly-competitive handicap hurdle in which the majority can be given a chance. Bobo Mac is well respected on the back of his excellent second here on return, as is Dragon d’Estruval.