Horse Racing Selections – 11th February 2022
It’s a double header with meetings from Southwell & Chelmsford.
At the former, low grade across the board. Pick of the claiming stakes being (16.25) being Red Allure. That one just got done on the nod for us two runs back at a big price.
There’s one at a price in an earlier race and will skip the evening meet.
Today’s member’s notes are below….
Back in the morning around 8.30 am .
BOL (Best Of Luck!) with any of your betting selections.
Have a good day & stay safe!
Gary
For those on the new 2021/22 £1k to £10k Annual Challenge, the bank is £591.21 and current full stakes, unless advised, £7.40 EW
The 2021/22 All Weather currently at -85.7 pts to 1pt EW stakes with over a 25% win/place rate.
The 2021 Turf bank ended at +48.66 pts to 1pt EW stakes with over a 36% win/place rate.
Link to full results >> HERE
Today’s member’s notes are below….
BOL (Best Of Luck!) with any of your betting selections.
Stay safe!
ABW Team
Today’s Selections
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Gary has taken a hit of 500 but hardly making a splash in the 9700 he banked. That is taking a long term view and using facts to back it up. As i said before, anybody joining in April last year will have left by now and it’s understandable. Long term members should know better and give the service a chance when we get off the cat litter….Today we have a very rare 1pt bet on the A/W with Gary stating he was happy with the horses last performance as it equalled his winning rating five months earlier. So it did running to 68 RPR. He also believes ‘Bobby’ has to improve ! RPR’s says it doesn’t have to improve. It’s last run it was second running to the same rating as when it won the race before, some seven points better RPR 75, OR 68 today. Now you know what is coming. This is a class 6 for Elks. Last date had two runs before it’s 68 RPR performance. It was beaten 29l and 28 lengths.Which Last date will turn up today ? Your guess is as good as mine. I will keep my staking to as low as a snakes belly and wait for the horses to run on the grass before i return to normal staking.
Hi I only joined the service Dec 2021 and I also back my own selection in the same race as Gary and I am showing a 84 point profit Vs -43 Points Gary using my plan (same staking 50/50) split.
First of I would say that although Gary,s System is now 67 selections since a winner this is well within what is expected based on the prices in fact the Expected Losing Sequence is 79.6 so we could go another 12/13 losers and still be in the norm.
But looking at Gary’s Spreadsheet muddies the water a little because he is combing (Half Stake Challenge and Full Stake Challenge on the same sheet).
Using a fixed system provides different results as expected so
£1000 Start (Bets 50/50 split) using 1.25% bank
From 1-April 2021
Bets 352
Bank High = £1996.92
Bank Low = £876.93 (today)
So there were times when you could have got out with a nice profit if you wanted to.
Going back to Gary’s Spreadsheet
Start £1000
High £1413.12
Low £591.21
Avg = £1010.49
Looking at it from a Win system it has a -7% edge meaning based on the current results its not profitable long term. But the Win SR is currently 7.1% and only needs to be at 7.6% to break even . An Archie score of 1.8 would indicate that there is a 20% chance the selections /winners are down to pure luck.
That -7% edge is mainly driven by the odds/value and below you can see a breakdown getting better value than SP is paramount.
Odds Range
4 – 6 Edge +20%
>6 10 Edge +11
Anyway that’s my 2p worth if you want to discuss further then PM me.
The Odds /edge range should read
4-6 +20%
6-10 -31%
Over 10 +11
Thanks for the input Stephen 👍
Just to add that there are dual speadsheets running. There is the level stakes and then the challenge that has the flexible staking.
Losing run wise. I have never encountered anything like it. Josh always fired that same stat at me. In 6 years running I can remember one 30 plus before this hellish 9 months.
Ovedue it maybe and so frustrating writing what you believe 🤨
Sorry Stephen i won’t be contacting you.Far too clever for a yard dog like me.I agree with your statement that we can expect up to 80 losers operating at the odds we do. You clearly know your stuff and perhaps Peter is at your level but not many more. Who is Archie btw. Great post Stephen i think.
Archie tells you mathematically (or statistically) if your bets are random and winning by fluke, or are systematic
I joined last march and I’m still here my strict records show me I’m down roughly 40 points I put a adequate betting bank in place I haven’t reduced my stakes at all the overall profit of this service is huge and in time it will increase patience and betting bank is what’s required when I joined I gave the service 18 months then I will review it so many seconds last flat season every tipster goes through tough periods I expect to be here this coming flat and beyond cheers guys
Thanks 😊 for the VOC Derek
Don’t you think it’s worth taking a few weeks break, Gary? I can’t imagine how mentally draining this run must be. Coming back with refreshed eyes can work wonders.
Yep you are right. It’s tough old run writing what you believe. They are advices all the same and I get the impression that most are paper trading at the moment. I need to work through it and a break end March/early April will be most welcome 🙂 Best and thanks for the support, Gary