Horse Racing Selections – 13th July 2021
Meetings from Beverley, Bath & Brighton for Tuesday.
There’s a sole selection for the former today in the 6f opener.
Another disappointing day yesterday with what was our 100th turf bet of the season. Even my extended tracker notes couldn’t trawl up Jim Goldies 40/1 winner from that one, without a win since 2018 🙁 The win strike rate is obviously holding us back on the challenge that needs to get back up north of 10% and not the current 8%. That run of 2nds has certainly cost us but we bat on 🙂
Back in the morning with around 8.30am.
For those on the new 2021/22 £1k to £10k Annual Challenge, the bank is £1194.93 and current full stakes, unless advised, £14.93 EW
The 2021 Turf bank currently stands at +67.7 pts to 1pt EW stakes with over a 42% win/place rate.
The 2020/21 All Weather bank ended at +144 pts to 1pt EW stakes with over a 39% win/plac rate.
Link to full results >> HERE
Today’s member’s notes are below….
BOL (Best Of Luck!) with any of your betting selections.
Stay safe!
ABW Team
Today’s Selections
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Oh no, non runner 🥺
Going to switch my half stakes bet to Indian Pursuit 🙂
Good shout that actually; the thought didn’t cross my mind – will have a nibble too
I will be updating my blog for same
I will be updating my blog for same
I will be jumping onto Indain Pursuit at the price – updating the blog and sending out a new email 🙂
Gary I know I keep on about the stall win ratio but have you seen win %, for Indian pursuit
Well aware but I sectionalise things into low/mid/high. They’ve played around with stalls etc at Beverley to try am minimise the ‘low draw’. I’d say last 5 years on soft going there’s been more winners drawn high in big field handicaps??
Re draw BEVERLEY
13.45 Indian pursuit drawn 15 with a strike rate of 3.1% the worst % of all the stalls, the winner Twice Adaay drawn 2 with a strike rate of 15.5% the best strike rate of the field.
14.15 BEVERLEY again over 5f the winner La Feile drawn in stall 2 the best drawn horse in the field wins rirst time out at 14/1 and yes I was on.
And we have another 5f from BEVERLEY 14.45
I have to say today must be the first time in many moons that I have not backed an ABW advice. This has nothing to do with our “poor run” at present, but solely based on our selection being drawn out wide in 15. Beverley is amongst the top courses in the country where a low draw is all important, you might as well make a donation to charity which I have done today.
Anyway I am sure the results will turn our way shortly.
Ray
Since 2015 only been six 5f handicaps run on soft at Beverley. Winners were drawn 2,3,10,12,14,16. Put a different way and taking into account non runners, five of the six winners were drawn within three of either side and no winner coming from the inside or widest draw. Given Indian Pursuit drawn effectively 2 from the outside. no reason to rule out based on the draw.
Even taking into account all 5f races (i.e. inc non-handicaps) there have only been 8 races with 14+ runners with stalls 14 and 16 providing 2 of the winners.
The strike rate Peter refers to for Stall 2 is more or less correct however only has an IV of 1.03 and provides level stake loss.
Any firm conclusions either way are impossible as the sample size is so small but equally could not discard any selection based purely on draw.
Although i had a much smaller investment than the original selection, my reservations were the fact it had never won with a break of 30 days or more since last run. Although only a day over, previous history would suggest needs at least three runs after a significant break. I would be prepared to give it one more chance in next 30 days in a similar grade, and preferably going right handed, but equally could just be the horse is regressive on turf now
The brain is hardwired to question mistakes that help with future decisions. When it comes to horse race betting its incredible that when we win its a self pat on the back and move on whereas a loss initiates an autopsy the Royal College of Surgeons would be proud of. The long toothed amongst us will realise it doesnt matter where a loser finishes, its the long term figures that decide an investment. I cancelled my subscription not because Gary was doing a bad job ( on the contrary, I think its a great service) but his selections were clashing too often with my own. Basically we have the same mentality and were fishing in the same waters. The secret is the opposite of what I mentioned earlier, move on from the losers and analyse the winners. Its in your winners that hold the key to successes.