Horse Racing Selections – 28th February 2021
There’s nothing on the all weather today and we’ll be beginning the week with couple of single meet days at Wolves and Newcastle.
Yesterday was a tad better than wipes yer face with Engrave grabbing a slot last night at Chelmsford 🙂 Whilst Poetic Force disappointed in the opener for us, I think it was a big ask to have found that Lee Carter winning maiden 🙂
The AW season culminates with the Finals Day at Lingfield on Good Friday. As we enter the the last month of the AW season, I think it’s important to look where we have come from.
Difficult what to make of October. Whether it’s any opening month ‘establishing form ‘ or a personal adjustment of getting the ‘sand goggles’ on is open to conjecture. The AW season win strike rate of 14% has been near the top end of expectations (12-15%) though the win/place rate at 36.5% has been a tad down on targeted 40%. Overall it’s 105 pts on declared morning prices to 1pt EW stakes, made up from:
- October -18 pts
- November +66 pts
- December +39 pts
- January 0 pts
- February +18 pts
I know I had a few new members at the beginning of the month and always nice to get them up and running with a couple of winners. There’s nothing worse than joining in the middle of a losing run and at the odds we play, that is entirely possible 🙂 I have often had it levelled that ‘I couldn’t tip a wheelbarrow’.
Hopefully they will be sticking around for the foreseeable with February’s profit. However, just a note to existing members is that I do have a top figure membership cap as I do want prices achieved to be continually realistic at morning prices. I am not one for tipping in the evening and prices evaporating for all before the market has formed.
Back to those figures achieved. Nick mentioned in the forum a couple of weeks back, “over a 1000 bets, backing an even-money shot each time, you could expect a losing run of 10; 5/1 shots each time would be losing run of 38; and 14/1 shots would be losing run of 100 – the strike rate here is pretty good and we just have to ride out the little storms.”
Our average price taken is just >10’s and have had one 24 LR hence the continued growth despite those ‘little storms’ and that has been the profile much since the start up on Facebook in 2015 at over 900 pts to 1pt EW stakes 🙂
I do get asked the question of how WIN ONLY betting pans out? I know we have a few WIN ONLY players out there and those with the solid mentality of accepting just the 12-15% winners do win over us EW players. Investing the same 1 pt EW as a 2 pt WIN bet since October shows over 130 pts profit to the 105 pts for the EW staking. Food for thought, and a very personal decision. Myself, I sacrifice those 25 pts for some solace in going close with a well researched 16/1 shot 🙂
It would be good to get any views below?
It would also be nice to land the £1k to £10k for the first time since 2017. Hopefully March will provide us some decent winners to do so. Am conscious that there are a few of you who have said you cannot get the £100+ bets on, so have reigned that in to half stakes of late. We’ll reset that challenge at the end of the March back to the opening £12.50 EW stakes and go again on the ‘Annual Challenge’.
Have a good Sunday and any comments stick them in the forum below for you all to comment on. If I don’t get a chance to reply, please don’t take offence. There is a 6yo here who besides traumatic homeschooling will be wanting to run riot!
Roll on the 8th March 🙂
BOL
Gary
For those on the £1k to £10k Annual Challenge, its currently over a 38% win/place rate and our bank is £8134.36 with an ROI of over 700% and current stakes £102.29 EW
Today’s member’s notes are below….
BOL (Best Of Luck!) with any of your betting selections.
Stay safe!
ABW Team
Today’s Selections
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A great effort to achieve over 100 pts profit on the all weather. I am very much in the each way punter camp and if i feel the place part is acceptable would take the extra place whenever i can. As a punter of over 50 years i have always been aware of the bigger profit by backing all selections to win. I have to say i have tried it but the losing runs kill me and even though i believe i can ride out losing runs from ABW it is the bits of place returns that ease the pain. It is all about your mindset and how losers affect you.
Same frame of mind for me Ian, have a good Sunday 🙂
Nice one Gary!! Well researched and very interesting statistics for the AW season. I agree with you both…at the prices you play, each way betting is definitely preferable. Even that extra place is important, as I have learned recently! Last night was a case in point for me…Engrave was available at bigger prices with 365 but to only 3 places; so with my new knowledge, I took a lower price with Paddy Power but got the 4th place and was rewarded with a small profit on the race! 100 points + profit on the AW is very impressive. And clearly the full point each way stakes are the stronger selections, whether based on form or info! Is the profit roughly equal on both 1/2 stakes and full stakes or do the full stakes do better? All I would add is a blank day with no selections at all would always be very acceptable, as a bet for its sake is not always necessary. I’m sure when the grass flat season starts, we may find fewer selections in that notoriously tricky changeover period. Keep up the hard work 🙂
Yep I think two weeks settling in period before we get going. In truth the last couple of seasons we haven’t had too much success for April to suggest that is a good strategy 🙂
Just a question about recording the daily bets, profit or loss-wise Gary.
Say there’s 2 selections in the morning. Most of us go and look for the best price/place terms and put the bets on for the day.
Am I right in saying for recording purposes, if the first one loses then you calculate the remaining bet as say 1/40th of the bank remaining?
But in the morning we don’t know the first bet is going to lose, so the stakes are the same.
Do you get my drift?
Hi Nick,
I think the spreadsheet is just a drag down copy – In reality I place the same amount on both 🙂
Impressive results. Congrats and keep on doing ❤️
Good stuff Kevin 🙂
Wins are deffo more profitable, but mentally a lot lot harder. Also bookies close down accounts a LOT quicker
You are a tough cookie 🙂
Well, this concludes my first month of ABW in February and so far pretty impressed. I joined just after the first winner (just my luck), so my position is a little off to the performance for the month, but I can see there is clear potential longer term. I have pretty much stuck to £10 level stakes whilst you are completing the 10k challenge and really look forward to starting this when this resets!
With regards to would I take Win over Place I am not the best loser so would prefer to monitor a consistent bank over an erratic one.
will re-boot at the end of the month Chris 🙂
After having some of my accounts restricted, I decided to bank what I had won and restart my bank at £2000, this was from 14th December, still using 1.5% of my the bank. I have since had no problems with the bookies. Just a suggestion, instead of aiming for £10.000 lower it to £5000 and then start again. ??
Hi Alan,
There are a few of you who set lower targets such as £2k and bank the £1k ad re-start 🙂