Horse Racing Selections – 29th January 2022
The weekends cards come from Lingfield and Kempton.
Nothing at the latter and will look at a couple of handicaps at ‘old leafy no more’. The (12.52) has no appeal and will make our selection in the Class 5 (16.23)
Today’s member’s notes are below….
Back on Monday morning around 8.30 am .
BOL (Best Of Luck!) with any of your betting selections.
Have a good day & stay safe!
Gary
For those on the new 2021/22 £1k to £10k Annual Challenge, the bank is £659.82 and current full stakes, unless advised, £8.24 EW
The 2021/22 All Weather currently at -70.3 pts to 1pt EW stakes with over a 25% win/place rate.
The 2021 Turf bank ended at +48.66 pts to 1pt EW stakes with over a 36% win/place rate.
Link to full results >> HERE
Today’s member’s notes are below….
BOL (Best Of Luck!) with any of your betting selections.
Stay safe!
ABW Team
Today’s Selections
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Chris-8
Thanks very much for your great post yesterday. Very helpful going forward.
Anyone else who is disgruntled, disappointed or disenchanted with the service should give it a read.
No problems mate – Don’t get me wrong I’m no expert and it’s pure opinion. Some other great posts come from Ian to. I naturally developed a tipster portfolio, but Ian’s comments contextualised that it is something you should have around you;
Compounding is a really great strategy too, and that’s what I liked about Garys 10k challenge, as you are compounding your stakes and the winnings get bigger, whilst the losses get smaller. But the biggest problem we all face is Variance and that can be a mentality killer
I know other people here in the past mention they stake 20:80 20% Win / 80% Place.
Also I’m pretty sure I calculated some raw figures but I will have to dig them out, the biggest winners here are the Win Only bettors – but in a downturn like this, it can absolutely crucify your bank and you mindset. I’d use the term big balls, but in reality, you need a disconnected mindset that robotically follows the rule of the system.
Like a few here I imagine, I follow more than one tipster, often fishing in the same pool. Sometimes another will A) tip the same horse as Gary and sometimes B) another in the same race. What’s the view on A? Back it twice? And on B, back both or neither? None are doing very well, so a return to the ‘sunlit uplands’ will be very welcome.
What a question/s that is Charles. I could write a chapter of a book and not get the answer right. The five in my portfolio very rarely cross over. Snowy, NH only, ABW flat lowish grade, Ben Coley free golf tips, Post Racing, dutching ratings and my own football and horse racing selections avoiding races by above tipsters.
I have an amount for each method/tipster and divide by 50 to give the amount to place on each selection. My bank for Snowy is much bigger than my own selections. On the dutching i also have a sliding scale. EG if the 3 horse dutch is on fancied horses then my stake would be at the higher level. If they are outsiders then it would be at the basement. As Chris-8 has said i use 20/80’s or take the extra place wherever i can especially with ABW. I certainly don’t have big balls and like to help the mindset by putting bits into the pot. If two of your tipsters tip the same horse then i think you have to back it twice to your relevant stake. If they tip different horses in the same race then i think you have to back them both to relevant stake. I apologise for a very poorly written post but hope it helped in some way.
Ian what i would add to your post if your tipsters have a difference on onion is to back them in a reverse forecast as well.
Do you have an onion opinion? 🙂
Yes it should be opinion
I am not a fan of exotics Peter but a small stake forecast if that occasion happened is a possibility. I can never understand people backing lucky 15’s and having the same amount on a single as they do a fourfold (crazy betting imo)
I think we should use this forum more often to share ideas as there are some good judges on here. I take the Mick out of Peter but he has a very good knowledge of this game and has forgotten more than i know. I am going to dip my toe into the punting arena. I have avoided betting against the Millers since the Fleetwood game as i have not liked the chances of us getting beat or drawing the last two league games (Cheltenham and Crewe ). I went to the Mornflake yesterday(Gresty Rd) and we were very ordinary.A win that put us top of the league but a performance that suggested we are not firing. We had two shots on target and sealed the game with an own goal. On Tuesday we have a local Derby against Donny. The odds are wrong imo. Doncaster at 8/1 and the draw at 7/2 are far too big. I will be having a tenner on. £3 on Donny at 8/1 and £7 on the draw at 7/2. If i get either result up i win over £14. Is that a value bet? imo yes. A post on value would be interesting at a later date. If you are not getting value in your bets you are going to struggle to make a profit. Good luck everybody.
Why don’t you just put £10 on Doncaster Double Chance at 56/25 and win £22.40?
See what i mean about sharing ideas. Thanks James that is the bet i will be having.
That’s it guys share your thoughts, ideas and hopefully we can all profit from them.
I will give you a little system that I use every day and I will give you it totally free no credit card or pay pal details because I’m that sort of guy.
I call it 3 good runs
The rules are quite simple
First look at the horses last 3 runs
and add up it last 3 finishing positions
and allocate the following points
1pt for a win
2pt for a 2nd place
3pt for a 3rd place
10 pt for any other form figures
So add up the last 3 runs
as long as the points add up to a maximum of 6 points
and this is the only horse to qualify in the field for this, so eg
Last 3 runs finishing
1st =1pt
2nd=2pt
3rd=3pt
Adds up to 6 points
Or
2nd=2pt
1st =1pt
1st =1pt
Adds up to 4 points
Next rule this has to be the only horse in the field that qualifies
Next rule the horse has to run within the last 28 days.
If the horse is set to top weight it’s worth an extra look
Good day Peter Higgins,
This points allocating system is similar to one brought out by Clive Holt in the 80’s called Fineform… How to find Winners. The first tipping guide i ever purchased & tbh i found it to be a feed of crud but each to his own i say.
My only questions to all the above is…Whats a credit card? And is pay Pal a Scotsman demanding moniey? 🙂
Regards & gd luck to us all.
Terry Southampton
This is a very simple ratings system with the following rules…
Last 2 Races in the Current Season
1st Place 5 points
2nd Place 3 points
3rd Place 2 points
4th Place 1 point
Course and Distance win 3 points
Distance win 3 points
Course win 1 point
All horses are assigned points based on their last two races.
The horse that finishes with the most points is the one that you’re supposed to bet on.
If two runners tie for the top spot, then you should award an extra point to a distance winner.
Sorry I forgot to add it flat or all weather only.