Horse Racing Selections – 3rd February 2022
Thursday’s all-weather cards come from Southwell and Chelmsford.
Nothing from the former, the (13.00) has gone down to a 6 runner and tracker in that one, Scott Dixon’s Gypsy Whisper, needs to put that last poor run behind him. On at around 5’s has run form off the pace on last few runs. Did win from off the front for David Menuisier and is in a line up where you are struggling to find a front runner.
No let up on this turgid run topping 60. It really has been 9 months of ‘after the Lord Mayor’s Show ‘ and appreciate it’s trying patience 🙁 It’s been a tough old ask on the AW and field sizes and prices we target have been an issue. After 2 years of AW profits this has been dire and there’s a nice little read regarding concerns in George Baker’s Blog. Just scroll down a tad from the top to read his thoughts.
Any views always welcome below.
There’s sole selection today on the evening.
Today’s member’s notes are below….
Back in the morning around 8.30 am .
BOL (Best Of Luck!) with any of your betting selections.
Have a good day & stay safe!
Gary
For those on the new 2021/22 £1k to £10k Annual Challenge, the bank is £645.03 and current full stakes, unless advised, £8.06 EW
The 2021/22 All Weather currently at -73.9 pts to 1pt EW stakes with over a 25% win/place rate.
The 2021 Turf bank ended at +48.66 pts to 1pt EW stakes with over a 36% win/place rate.
Link to full results >> HERE
Today’s member’s notes are below….
BOL (Best Of Luck!) with any of your betting selections.
Stay safe!
ABW Team
Today’s Selections
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My main beef would be on value as we always seem to be backing 10/1’s at 7/1 like today… i certainly dont believe in awaiting for some ‘liquidity’ in the markets as people/tipsters who state this are just giving the bookie an option to pay less…
Most horses we back are punted overnight & in turn shorten up again when the ABW mob go in at 8.30 ish!!! The odd few drift back out however they have still got to win & when the market speaks that way most punts are doomed…
Some one is backing these animals fairly consistently the night before… of course if it the tipsters then its foolish to put it up as the lay part(if they play that tune) is fooked!!!!
However the bookies once aware of the followed punter/tipsters bet in the eve will immediately shorten up as they know at 0830 in come the sheep…
Gary is obviously distraught atm and this is no help however neither is poor value its my only gripe as i hate winning at whats effectively a crap price..
Rant over.
As always good luck to us all.
Regards Terry Southampton
Durdle Door is literally carrying nothing in this race
I still believe that backing over 50% of bets in class 6 races since last October is one of the reasons for the downturn with only 1 win from the 61 class 6 races. Class 6 AW races are showing for themselves they are not a profitable betting medium. More than half are finishing well down the field.
There are plenty of factors causing this poor performance, maybe one being the very limited opportunities in the higher classes of the 3,4 & 5 advertised for this service due to poor prize money and attendance. The abundance of these class 6 tips is not going to change very much for the foreseeable is it?
While I appreciate what Chris-8 said the other day about this current run not actually being as bad as what it seems. It’s increasingly likely it’s game over for me, I’ll let my current subscription run out in March and that’ll probably be it for me. Luckily I’ve backed very few since November, and about 2 since the turn of the year which I won’t be adding to any time soon. I just don’t want to be betting in class 6 races most of the time.
After reading the article Gary posted up top, it does look like the AW is F*$ked unless something is done about the prize fund. It’s an interesting angle, maybe one that does actually answer the question I have been asking
ie. what is the difference from this season and last season.
I guess the answer, as Terry points out above is quite possible Value. What happens when you take a price less than the true probability, loss!
Working on my wind op/female jockey staying late at the meeting, Bella Collorossa is looking good in the 7:30 😁
First time on this forum although been a member since October 2020. I don’t think that I’ve ever seen anything on here regarding the Half Stake/Full Stake method. Has anybody kept records as far as strike rate, profit, etc?
Hi Mark, thanks for the post. There is a constant link to the spreadsheet of results that dates back 6 years plus. Personally I target 12 -15% win and 40% + on the win place. That’s been achieved consistently up to this season where we are down at 7.3% Win and only 33% win/place 🙁