Horse Racing Selections – 6th August 2021
Friday’s cards come from Thirsk, Haydock, Mussleburgh and Brighton.
Outside of 3yo Mr Trevor from the tracker notes, nothing has been noted on a meet predominantly for the juveniles. The maiden was a solid 4th to Jordan Electrics when short of room and is on at just better that wipes yer face 6’s to open his account. Hardly a strong suggestion though 🙂
There’s better options for Haydock & Brighton and will look there ahead of the weekends cards. They already do look a bit limited in terms of runners to post even at this stage for the Haydock & Ayr meets. With the forecast turn in weather it could well be a blank selection Saturday 🙁
Yesterday saw us show better with a nice drifter in 14/1 winner Ulshaw Bridge if you managed to take advantage. Muatadel also continued to show decent form from his lowly mark for a nice priced 22/1 place…..Onwards 🙂
Today’s notes are below and back in the morning around 9.00am.
For those on the new 2021/22 £1k to £10k Annual Challenge, the bank is £1064.04 and current full stakes, unless advised, £13.30 EW
The 2021 Turf bank currently stands at +46 pts to 1pt EW stakes with over a 38% win/place rate.
The 2020/21 All Weather bank ended at +144 pts to 1pt EW stakes with over a 39% win/place rate.
Link to full results >> HERE
Today’s member’s notes are below….
BOL (Best Of Luck!) with any of your betting selections.
Stay safe!
ABW Team
Today’s Selections
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Well done yesterday Gary, hope this is a run like the proverbial busses.
Just wanted to ask, and i can t recall who it was, but one member remarked on his staking approach which was to stake 20 % Win and 80 % Place. I have seen this advocated elsewhere too. I can see very well the + and the minus of such an approach. Reason for asking is that i have 2 other approaches, both of which produce decent ROI s BUT like here the Win, and Place prices are relatively low. Being now an OAP, and not having that bigger Banks, i do think the 20/80 (i’ll call it Pareto 🙂 will help make me feel less ‘twitchy’ when the Win runs are very low. Any comments, maybe comparative stats if available, from anyone would be greatly appreciated, thanks John
Woops – sorry, should read the Win and Place SRIKE RATES, are relatively low.
Over to you guys with views on Staking Plans 🙂
If only I could post some charts and graphs hah
Gutted – betunfair et al cut 4 places – Skybet have kept though
Same here, only got 3 places 😪
I find that the place market offers very little by way of value but can be comforting when we keep getting pipped for the win. As such I just stake enough on the place to recover my main win stake if we take the runner up spots. This way I always have the majority of my stake on the win which is very satisfying when those big ones go in.
Hi Raymond. It was me who posted that. (I picked up the idea on the “Race Advisor” website. Too pricy for me now, I’m not on there any more). The concept is totally as you say. It maximises your position when there are long runs without a win, but places are running at around 40%, which is Gary’s norm. Sadly we have been running below that for the last few months, so even with this approach I’ve lost some of what I had gained earlier. However, variance over time is to be expected, especially at the high prices Gary’s picks go off at. There’s no reason to think the place ratio won’t “revert to the mean” over time.
You can only really do this on exchanges. This does mean however that, if you use Betfair, you can often get a four places market even if it is only an 8 runner race. I put my place bet on this extra place market provided I can get at least 2 (evens) on it. If not I just use the 3 places market. This way I get a slightly higher percentage of place outcomes than Gary would get.
The downside is that I don’t do as well when a winner does come in, as I am only putting 20% of a stake on it rather than 50%. I suspect, though I confess I haven’t bothered to work it out, that the end result is not that different over time for both approaches. It’s just that this way you feel fewer “negative waves” from long runs without a winner.
Practical example of the above for Daawy in the 8.25 tonight. On bookies it is a 3 place race but there is a 4 place market on Betfair exchange. I’m out tonight, so I’ve just placed an order for 80% of my stake at 3.05 on the 4 place market and 20% of my stake at 15 on the win market. In both cases I have ticked “Take Betfair SP at the off” if I don’t get my ordered prices.
So a quick bit of analysis I did a few weeks ago on the whole of the ABW data set purely based on the recorded results shows that from March-2015 to 15-July-2021
Win only (1pt) 1122 (£10 stakes net £11,222)
E/W (0.5pt EW) 858.33 (£10 Stakes net £8,583.30)
20/80 EW (0.2pt/0.8pt) 1301.5 (£10 stakes net £13,015)
Happy for anyone to challenge these calcs, however, I must state the 20/80 EW calcs are taken from AWB advised pricing and they could be wildly different to the exchange price; They also neglect the reduce BOG, and Extra Place availability. I might be saying these are crap 🤣
I can’t find the analysis I did on the percentage staking, but over the years it was somewhere in the realm of a million plus (if you could get the stake size on) obviously all theoretical!
In my opinion the best approach is to decide your investment style, aggressive WIN stakes (long deep losses, large bank), progressive would be % bank stakes (small-large bank), and safe would be 20/80 (small bank) – small regular increments.
P.S. if anyone feels this is wrong, please call me out!
Sorry as i was out almost all of Friday i just to say thank you to everyone for their comments and figures included – greatly appreciated all round. I have noted what has been said and will give some considered thought as to my best way forward. Have long realised about ‘variance’ and look forward to when it swings back the other way 🙂 Thank you all again for your contributions.