Horse Racing Selections – 6th May 2021
Day 2 of the Boodles May Festival at Chester.
The Ormonde Stakes Group 3 is the feature, though there are couple of 4+ handicaps to consider. It’s a rare dip into the Class 2 opening race today (13.45), with a few unknown 4yo’s going in the 10f (15.45) for my liking 🙂
Not a massive fan of these ‘big’ meetings where many are laid out to go well, will stick with half stakes today before upping the ante.
A cracking return for us yesterday with BROKEN SPEAR doing the business as a drifter at 25/1. Hopefully, most of you happy with the early 16’s for non-BOG bets and those late to the party!
Back in the morning just before 8.30 am.
For those on the new 2021/22 £1k to £10k Annual Challenge, the bank is £1173.03 and current full stakes, unless advised, £14.66 EW
The 2021 Turf bank currently stands at +18 pts to 1pt EW stakes with over a 42% win/place rate.
The 2020/21 All Weather bank ended at +144 pts to 1pt EW stakes with over a 39% win/place rate.
Link to full results >> HERE
Today’s member’s notes are below….
BOL (Best Of Luck!) with any of your betting selections.
Stay safe!
ABW Team
Today’s Selections
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Reading some of the comments yesterday, it got me to wonder what is the preferential odds system. My initial belief was value comes from the early morning prices, but comparing my Early Morning Price, with the ISP the difference is about 0.7, so at the odds we look at that’s 1 or 2 clicks. my BSP average is about -1.5 (so Early price is better). But what is the general preference as BOG for most BMs is post 9/10 am.
is value in Early Morning, wait for BOG, some sort of exchange mix (afternoon/BSP), or is it a combination of all of the above?
As I place bets on exchange only (and am new here), I wonder about how to do it too. Probably 50% asap, 50% before start? The question is how often the horses drift and that, might not be that often 🙂 It would be more time consuming too.
Like Michal, I am an exchange user only, as I am promotion banned (including BOG) from all the high street books. What I do, if I know I am not going to be about in the half hour before the race, is put bets on the exchange which are several points better than the price when I make them. Then I click the little button that says “Take SP”. For example Count D’Orsay is currently 14.5 on Betfair. I would put my win bet on at 16.5 and then take SP. I haven’t kept track of it, but I definitely get my desired price more than half of the time and of course I have the “failsafe” of Betfair starting price if it is needed. When I am able to bet in the half hour before the race I watch the market trends and if it is drifting put “part bets” on of my total stake going further and further out again using “take SP” as a fallback position. Yesterday I got an average of 27 on Broken Spear not including some shrapnel I shoved on near the end when it went out to 30 just before the off. It works for me. It is not unusual for Gary’s selections to drift on Betfair as they are so often at double digit prices and therefore not much considered by the geneeral punting public.
definitely interesting. Unfortunately I am with Matchbook only (country restrictions) so I cannot take SP. But it is worth trying to divide stake into smaller ones and ask for different prices. Then check how it goes before start.
My main concern is that with odds that strengthen, this would be counter-productive.
But if you say that more bets end drifting…
Brian, I’m interested in your BFX experience. Bearing in mind Gary’s selections are advised e/w, do you back win only or win/Place on the exchange?